PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Has been some pretty interesting weather events this year…huge snowstorm in February, record breaking heatwave in June and some insane flooding and rainfall this fall. Hopefully something historically Arctic in December but we will see. If we get anything this winter I think it’s just going to be a few days in the low to mid 30s with a bit of snow that’s my prediction nothing crazy cold IMO. 

Crazy is kind of the theme right now though.  I'm going to say TWL finally gets some sub freezing highs this winter.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

November 1990 is a very good analogue for this month, and we all know (or rather, should know) what December 1990 was like (and the fun extended well into January 1991 in Whatcom and the BCLM).

Jan 1991 had a lot of dry cold down here too, but nothing like up your way.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Jan 1991 had a lot of dry cold down here too, but nothing like up your way.

Vancouver got nearly 100 cm total snow in those two months… and that’s at YVR, one of the least snowy parts of the metro area!

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Vancouver got nearly 100 cm total snow in those two months… and that’s at YVR, one of the least snowy parts of the metro area!

No doubt you have to call 1990 an analog from an observed weather point of view.  It's interesting to note that many of the technical analogs that Phil has been talking about had weather quite different than what we've been seeing this season.  Kind of makes me wonder if two sets of analogs might be the way to go when forecasting a winter.  One set based on QBO,  ENSO, solar, etc, and the other based on observed patterns during the autumn.  I'm very interested to see how this one turns out.

[MossMan]

43 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

OTOH, it could all just be random coincidence. Seattle didn’t miss having a snowy January by much in 2020 (Skagit County north had one, with full-on arctic blast conditions in Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland.)

Jan 2020 featured some lovely powder!! It was a close call though, glad i didn’t live a bit south. 

[smerfylicious]

Idk about you guys, but I sure could use a few more ARs. The rivers around here just haven't flooded enough for me to be confident in no drought.

[Skagit Weather]

Ended up with 1.48" on Thanksgiving which puts me at 8.85" on the month. My current record wettest month is 9.12" from November 2015, but I should surpass that early on Saturday and then who knows how high I'll go. If the Euro is to be believed I'll end up somewhere around 12".

This will probably end up being in the top 3 wettest months up here in the last hundred years. Sedro-Woolley is one of the closest stations to me and has a period of record that goes all the way back to 1896. By far the wettest three months are December 1917 (18.50"), November 1990 (16.50"), and January 1971 (15.81"). Unfortunately, after 125 years of service it appears the data for the station stopped reporting in September (or maybe it's just delayed). If I'm approaching 9" right now though, I would have to imagine Sedro-Woolley is closer to 11-12" (which is what PWS are reporting in the area) which means it's only a couple inches away from it's 3rd wettest month in the last century from November 1995 (13.32").

And of course, as I've already mentioned, BLI is about 1" away from it's wettest month ever recorded with records dating back to 1949.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS OP run is already much better in just about every way at D7.

[Meatyorologist]

hmmmmmmmmmm 

[Meatyorologist]

00z

18z

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

LOCK IT IN!!!

[Meatyorologist]

Well how about that!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Requiem]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

[Meatyorologist]

It's thinking about round two... Might be too progressive, will find out soon!

[Meatyorologist]

It won't be... A great pattern being depicted in the long range with room for improvement and timing moving up. Could be some more #eyecandy frames soon

[Meatyorologist]

#score

[Christensen87]

12z, please please please do not take it away. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Meatyorologist]

Y'all are really gonna like the next few frames...  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Y'all are really gonna like the next few frames...  

This run is pure sex

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This run is pure sex

They call it the fantasy range for a reason! Arctic hammer trying to glaciate the Puget+Willamette valleys around hr288 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Requiem]

Those last few frames are like ambrosia. Gosh, wouldn't we all love that. Something for everyone in there!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Requiem]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful Cross-Cascade Gradient

[Meatyorologist]

End of the run turns pure unabated Arctic Medford northward. Highs in low 20s and lows in single digits/lower during mother of all east wind events.

[smerfylicious]

Y'all got any of them Puget Sound maps?

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Meatyorologist]

This is one of the coldest model runs I've ever seen in our area... Truly a throwback to Dec 1990/Dec 1968.

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

End of the run turns pure unabated Arctic Medford northward. Highs in low 20s and lows in single digits/lower during mother of all east wind events.

We endured the heat dome-- would be very on-color for 2021 to pull out an unmovable record-strength arctic high.

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

End of the run turns pure unabated Arctic Medford northward. Highs in low 20s and lows in single digits/lower during mother of all east wind events.

When was the last sub-freezing high for Seattle? 2008?

[Meatyorologist]

You can see the lobe shape on the thickness map as it sinks southward... Would be pushing all time low PWAT values at Quillayute. 1062mb beast of an arctic high.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Final totals

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

When was the last sub-freezing high for Seattle? 2008?

Y’all had one in Feb right?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

When was the last sub-freezing high for Seattle? 2008?

2/13/2021 with a high of 31°F and 8.9" of snow.