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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oldsmobile car from the 60's and 70's, mom and dad had one. 

My dad has a 1966 with the tri power! He had that 455 big block that is in it BUILT! I swear he can almost lift the front tires off the ground in that beast! 

3CCB1704-3ABF-4B26-BDC8-0B38081B9DA9.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Three of the main analogs in recent days have been 1971, 1990, and 2008.  Talk about a nice trio!

1971-72 was a really solid winter with moderate cold and some lowland snow in December and then a major event in January.  One of the snowiest winters on record for SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Wait what? So snow up and down the coast and in the mountains but I-5 corridor is pretty much nothing. Yikes. 

Shadowing.

The ECMWF is telling us patience may be required over the next week or so.  Maybe the GFS has just been rushing things too much.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wait what? So snow up and down the coast and in the mountains but I-5 corridor is pretty much nothing. Yikes. 

It looks like it just starts at the end of the run. If it continued, high probability the snow would come onshore. Obviously need to see the placement of it though

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Shadowing.

The ECMWF is telling us patience may be required over the next week or so.  Maybe the GFS has just been rushing things too much.

Yup. I can definitely see that. I just find it really odd to see a map like this. 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

It looks like it just starts at the end of the run. If it continued, high probability the snow would come onshore. Obviously need to see the placement of it though

I'm not worried about the placement 10 days in advance of a Low that will certainly move. Just excited for the prospects of whats to come.  Nothing more magical than snow around the holidays.

 

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27 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

In most places around here and in most cases, yes, you need an artic high pressure. Otherwise the best you can get is cool onshore flow. It's PNW lowland snowstorms 101.

Not true.  One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area.  Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours.  A lot of places got a foot.  Nothing more than maritime polar air with that.  We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm not worried about the placement 10 days in advance of a Low that will certainly move. Just excited for the prospects of whats to come.  Nothing more magical than snow around the holidays.

 

We have a really good shot this year.  We are way due for a white New Years.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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I think the big story right now is how much the EPS and GEFS have improved over the past few runs.  Then of course the weeklies that came out on Monday.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not true.  One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area.  Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours.  A lot of places got a foot.  Nothing more than maritime polar air with that.  We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place.

I recommend reading Cliff Mass's book, it is true.

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not true.  One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area.  Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours.  A lot of places got a foot.  Nothing more than maritime polar air with that.  We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place.

To get a modestly chilly air mass in place, say mid thirties, you need an artic high pressure.

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not true.  One of the big snowstorms when I was a kid (Dec 1974) was from a baroclinic band that slowly sagged south through the area.  Rained for hours and hours, and then snowed for hours and hours.  A lot of places got a foot.  Nothing more than maritime polar air with that.  We can also get snows from a low tracking south of us with a modestly chilly air mass in place.

One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to a heavy wet snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Nice change in the lowering of heights on the latest EPS.

1639245600-rFNsdiDJmhw.png

I wonder when Phil will start changing his tune…

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. 

Yes I said in most cases you need an artic high it place and northerly flow. I can also think of cases where it snowed without an artic high.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

One of the biggest and longest duration snowstorms that I can remember up here is November 2006. Started out as rain during the early morning hours of the 26th, then turned to a heavy wet snow around 10am. By 2pm the power was knocked out and it never really stopped snowing the rest of that day, night, and all day on the 27th. The arctic front finally rolled in early that evening and the snow turned to a dry powdery snow and everything froze solid. That was a long lasting situation long before any arctic boundary rolled through. Oh that was such a fun one other than the lack of power for nearly 4 days. 

Totally forgot about that!  I was in Bham at the time at WWU.  The week before that I waited in line in front of the Best Buy to get the Wii(one and only time I ever camped out for a console) and I remember playing Zelda watching the snow dumping down.

 

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10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS control run looked nice as well.

I feel like more models are starting to look nice for mid month than not. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9116000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-9418400.png

 

10 hours ago, Phil said:

They either are or they aren’t. Nothing to “feel”. ;) 

Just to circle back to this real quick: they are.

You know what else they are all showing, besides a trough in the PNW? East coast ridging.  :wub:

00z GEFS same.png

00z GEPS same.png

00z EPS same.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hahaha know dude, we're a bunch of knuckle heads when it comes to weather. We'd be all there but still looking at the forum lol.

Yeah, this is pretty much what a forum meetup would look like (only older)

 

 

kids-on-phones.jpg

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The Aleutian / GOA positive anomaly center on the EPS is very close to the sweet spot at the end of the run.  Move it north a few degrees and east about 10 and you're there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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