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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't even see temps that support it...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t2m_f-1636070400-1636070400-1636534800-10.gif

The snow totals are probly from terrain bleed and not hi res enough.

  • Snow 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Small little wind event for parts of western Oregon in there too, though lot of inconsistency with strength and track.

  • Sun 1
  • Windy 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I don't think I have ever seen the Euro show something like this, very strange.  Maybe 41° snow in November is the flip side of late June 2021....

It actually looks like upper 30s at times.  Still pretty hard to pull off.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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925mb temps only drop to the 0 to +1 range on the Euro.  Just not cold enough for snow.  Maybe a mix though.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

No way in hell I see any form of snow this weekend. 

Reverse psychology! 

We were planning on going out to Ocean Shores this weekend as the tides are low for shellfish but it just got canceled due to the weather out there this Saturday. Oof. 

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The GEM is very similar to the GFS in showing a cold snap setting in around day 10.  The ECMWF fumbles the football on that for now.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

No favorable blocking or retrogression. Yet. Patience.

The GFS and GEM get pretty decent.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Weatherbell did update their winter forecast.  Much colder for us than the one they issued last month.  That N to S gradient in the West suggest some nice cold air / mild moist air battles.

 

cold.png

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  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I was just looking at the precip type and rates.... these may very well be evap cooling, looks quite heavy at times. We'll see. 

Yeah....850s will be around -4.  Given the right situation that could bring some wet snow to the hills.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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926064928_download(58).thumb.png.5d4091a226ea705847e8a7bb29bd23b9.png

  • Snow 1
  • Rain 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z NAM 3km Saturday

Wind storm for the central WA Coast, Northern Puget Sound, Bellingham.

nam3km_mslp_wind_nwus_fh20-35.gif

Feel like there's some uncertainty and potential with that Tuesday low. Will be interesting to see what happens.

  • Windy 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Night shift Rob?

  • Excited 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_18.thumb.png.89ca153edbc349565e64a95ae8921d89.png

ok we're in business.... 👀

  • Windy 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1471001729_download(59).thumb.png.0d8c58af730141b74e5b39ec37b05ead.png

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11/5/21 4:11 AM PDX NWS Forecast Discussion
 
All eyes on Monday night-Tuesday morning
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
401 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021
 
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Over the past 24 hours, models have trended toward developing one more low offshore - perhaps the strongest of the series. The 06z GFS shows 130+ kt jet energy rounding the base of the persistent upper trough, interacting with a sharp baroclinic zone along 40N. If this jet setup verifies, the 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF deterministic runs are on the right track in developing a strong low pressure system off the Oregon Coast Monday, which would then curl northward before making landfall somewhere between Newport and southern Vancouver Island. The 06z GFS develops this system into a 978 mb low just off Astoria by Tuesday morning. This would no doubt be a significant wind event throughout the forecast area. This solution has the support of several ensemble members, so we will have to keep a close eye on this.
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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:
11/5/21 4:11 AM PDX NWS Forecast Discussion
 
All eyes on Monday night-Tuesday morning
 
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
401 AM PDT Fri Nov 5 2021
 
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Over the past 24 hours, models have trended toward developing one more low offshore - perhaps the strongest of the series. The 06z GFS shows 130+ kt jet energy rounding the base of the persistent upper trough, interacting with a sharp baroclinic zone along 40N. If this jet setup verifies, the 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF deterministic runs are on the right track in developing a strong low pressure system off the Oregon Coast Monday, which would then curl northward before making landfall somewhere between Newport and southern Vancouver Island. The 06z GFS develops this system into a 978 mb low just off Astoria by Tuesday morning. This would no doubt be a significant wind event throughout the forecast area. This solution has the support of several ensemble members, so we will have to keep a close eye on this.

Spokane NWS talking about it also.

"This is when the weather could get potentially active as a deep offshore trough heads slightly inland and sweeps up a surface low forecast to be off the southern Oregon coast by midnight and then northeastward overnight and into the morning."

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