PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

No but 2004 did. For us the closest match so far with Oct Temps and precip is 1981. I will gladly take a repeat of that year! 2005-2006 was hot tropical garbage until March 2006 when it finally got cold and buried lake level Tahoe. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Snow for Portland on this run🌨

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snow for Portland on this run🌨

I'm in the blue!

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snow for Portland on this run🌨

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Mostly cloudy and at nearly 11:30 AM and it’s only warmed up to 44°F. Really feels like a November day.

[The Blob]

47 and very wet here

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

15 or 5? 
 

interestingly, this map shows 15” at Richmond and looks like 5 at Vancouver. Vancouver and Richmond are literally in the same area.  

[Kolk1604]

00z and 12z comparison for next Sunday. I hate life lol 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z and 12z comparison for next Sunday. I hate life lol 

Models can’t even forecast a wind event 48 hours out let alone a week.  

[Kolk1604]

2 hours ago, Requiem said:

This 12Z run is gorgeous my goodness.

 

South sound gets rocked 

[RentonHillTC]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Models can’t even forecast a wind event 48 hours out let alone a week.  

That whole system is sort of gone on the 12z though

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Models can’t even forecast a wind event 48 hours out let alone a week.  

Ya know I was hoping that would change with the Euro's upgrades...

Maybe one day... Maybe

[Timmy Supercell]

Now that we're done with Pumpkin Peeps, time for the Pepto Peeps! 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

That whole system is sort of gone on the 12z though

Chris’ raccoon took it. Blame him! 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

The 1st three weeks of December were wonderful. From the solstice up until early February was hot trash.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

That whole system is sort of gone on the 12z though

Wind picks up again on Monday

 

[RentonHillTC]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Wind picks up again on Monday

 

yep..bullseye

[Timmy Supercell]

First snowstorm shows up between 210-222 hours on Euro here, but we'll probably be driving the uHaul through OKC or Memphis around that time period. I'll keep an eye on the cocorahs site we have here (OR-KL-5) for snow in this area.

There was one or two winters our snowfall compared pretty closely. 

[RentonHillTC]

2nd half of euro run. 

 

[RentonHillTC]

12z lubes it up even more

[RentonHillTC]

Oregon precip totals  vs 00z thru hour 228

[snow drift]

The latest weekly 
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

[Cloud]

So 12z gfs  là là land shows another AR that seems to go on forever.

Inside 200 hours we’ve been teetering at the edge of a windstorm and finally gets slap with one next weekend. Ahhh yes, november! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

So 12z gfs  là là land shows another AR that seems to go on forever.

Inside 200 hours we’ve been teetering at the edge of a windstorm and finally gets slap with one next weekend. Ahhh yes, november! 

It does, it's actually something I envisioned happening at some point in November so we will see, an AR the just kind of drifts north and eventually dies, warm southerly flow here. Followed by a few days of ridging and then a pattern reset. It's possible...

[DJ Droppin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

It’s far worse when a pregnant raccoon gives birth on the floor of your red Prius.

 

A very raw 44.2, dewpoint 37.6, with light rain and a gusty east wind. It is nasty out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Both the GFS and EURO show us getting some wet snow next week. We had snow on the 11th or 12th back in 2015, which is the earliest snow we have had in November. Something to watch. 

[ShawniganLake]

50 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

Pretty hard to imagine that pattern producing snowfall to sea level this early in the season.   I mean there is some pretty decent arctic air pouring out over the pacific but I imagine snow levels would probably end up 1000ft and up if that verified 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

 

A very raw 44.2, dewpoint 37.6, with light rain and a gusty east wind. It is nasty out there.

Not windy here in Salem, but chilly and wet, I need to go pick up my coat from the dry cleaners!

[Chewbacca Defense]

48 after a low of 33.  Started out sunny today, the sun angle has finally hit a point where I had to throw up a piece of cardboard to block the glare.  My old desk set up was out of the sun, but the new desk set up is not so much.  Of course as soon as I did that the clouds started moving in LOL!  Looks like I will need to take out the big window fan I have and install some blinds.

[RentonHillTC]

12z vs 00z Snowfall thru hour 228/240

Washington

Oregon

[Cloud]

20 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

First snowstorm shows up between 210-222 hours on Euro here, but we'll probably be driving the uHaul through OKC or Memphis around that time period. I'll keep an eye on the cocorahs site we have here (OR-KL-5) for snow in this area.

There was one or two winters our snowfall compared pretty closely. 

You leave and it snows? Coincidence? Analog?

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z vs 00z Snowfall thru hour 228/240

Washington

Oregon

Tim is gonna have to start taking care of that garden. Pretty sure he planted something this past weekend. Bad idea!

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You leave and it snows? Coincidence? Analog?

Moved here right after the brunt of Nov 2010 snow/cold events which buried southern Oregon more so than north.

Leaving could mean endless skiing through Spring!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tim is gonna have to start taking care of that garden. Pretty sure he planted something this past weekend. Bad idea!

Might be the end of the roses blooming!    But we cleaned out everything from the vegetable garden yesterday.   Ready for winter.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be the end of the roses blooming!    But we cleaned out everything from the vegetable garden yesterday.   Ready for winter.

Have you tried planting some guernsey lily? Or do you have any fall/winter plants?  We planted some this past year thinking they’re  spring/summer flowers but apparently they bloom during the fall/winter. Quite beautiful! And they’re actually not that of a hassle to care for this time of year. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Have you tried planting some guernsey lily? Or do you have any fall/winter plants?  We planted some this past year thinking they’re  spring/summer flowers but apparently they bloom during the fall/winter. Quite beautiful! And they’re actually not that of a hassle to care for this time of year. 

Have not tried that.   

[TT-SEA]

I just told everyone that it's going to snow next week and it's guaranteed.

[GHweatherChris]

44° currently, which is the high so far.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got back to Tacoma about an hour ago…hit some light rain in silverdale but the roads weren’t really wet until I got south of Bremerton. 

 Looks like we had a low temp of 40 and 0.02” so far here today. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA jumped up to 57 last hour... still 59 in North Bend after a morning low of 53.

[Phil]

12z EPS finally drops the Mongolian High D8-9, with a solid Scand High/Aleutian Low regime D10-15.

Looks like a wavey breaky 2nd half of Nov.

[RentonHillTC]

EPS wind gust a tiny bit higher for thursday/fri for my area. 12z on top 00z on bottom

[RentonHillTC]

12z Euro vs GFS Wind Gust Swath (max wind gust through hour 90)

GFS

 

Euro

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I just told everyone that it's going to snow next week and it's guaranteed.

Good! I want that snow and cold held off until the holiday season  

[Deweydog]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA jumped up to 57 last hour... still 59 in North Bend after a morning low of 53.

[DJ Droppin]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Weeklies are out.  These are 5 day averages not daily averages. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies are out.  These are 5 day averages not daily averages. 

 

Not terrible. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS now going warm and dry for December, cold in January, very cold in February. 

[Timmy Supercell]

39 minutes ago, Deweydog said: