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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Mean was about the same here but slightly under average precipitation at KLMT for Oct 2005. Did that year have an AR hitting California in mid-Fall?

No but 2004 did. For us the closest match so far with Oct Temps and precip is 1981. I will gladly take a repeat of that year! 2005-2006 was hot tropical garbage until March 2006 when it finally got cold and buried lake level Tahoe. 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snow for Portland on this run❄️❄️☃️🌨

B0B14AF4-2C62-49E5-811C-0489B2DED703.jpeg

I'm in the blue!

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Snow for Portland on this run❄️❄️☃️🌨

B0B14AF4-2C62-49E5-811C-0489B2DED703.jpeg

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

15 or 5? 
 

interestingly, this map shows 15” at Richmond and looks like 5 at Vancouver. Vancouver and Richmond are literally in the same area. 😂 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OH MY GOD. I just compared October 2005 to October 2021 for SLE. Jim has been ranting about how the observed weather has been SO MUCH DIFFERENT this year... Maybe in his back yard, but I can't even imagine finding a more similar month... Check it out...

2005: 62.7/45.7 2.70"

2021: 62.4/45.6 2.71"

The 1st three weeks of December were wonderful. From the solstice up until early February was hot trash.

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First snowstorm shows up between 210-222 hours on Euro here, but we'll probably be driving the uHaul through OKC or Memphis around that time period. I'll keep an eye on the cocorahs site we have here (OR-KL-5) for snow in this area.

There was one or two winters our snowfall compared pretty closely. 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

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https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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So 12z gfs  là là land shows another AR that seems to go on forever.

Inside 200 hours we’ve been teetering at the edge of a windstorm and finally gets slap with one next weekend. Ahhh yes, november! 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

So 12z gfs  là là land shows another AR that seems to go on forever.

Inside 200 hours we’ve been teetering at the edge of a windstorm and finally gets slap with one next weekend. Ahhh yes, november! 

It does, it's actually something I envisioned happening at some point in November so we will see, an AR the just kind of drifts north and eventually dies, warm southerly flow here. Followed by a few days of ridging and then a pattern reset. It's possible...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Both the GFS and EURO show us getting some wet snow next week. We had snow on the 11th or 12th back in 2015, which is the earliest snow we have had in November. Something to watch. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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50 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Liking the looks of that 15.6 over Vancouver BC. Something tells me it’s the result of “slop over” in the models from the nearby mountains, and that some shade of blue is probably a more realistic color than Pepto pink.

Pretty hard to imagine that pattern producing snowfall to sea level this early in the season.   I mean there is some pretty decent arctic air pouring out over the pacific but I imagine snow levels would probably end up 1000ft and up if that verified 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Big Boy GIF

 

A very raw 44.2, dewpoint 37.6, with light rain and a gusty east wind. It is nasty out there.

Not windy here in Salem, but chilly and wet, I need to go pick up my coat from the dry cleaners!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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48 after a low of 33.  Started out sunny today, the sun angle has finally hit a point where I had to throw up a piece of cardboard to block the glare.  My old desk set up was out of the sun, but the new desk set up is not so much.  Of course as soon as I did that the clouds started moving in LOL!  Looks like I will need to take out the big window fan I have and install some blinds.

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20 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

First snowstorm shows up between 210-222 hours on Euro here, but we'll probably be driving the uHaul through OKC or Memphis around that time period. I'll keep an eye on the cocorahs site we have here (OR-KL-5) for snow in this area.

There was one or two winters our snowfall compared pretty closely. 

sn10_acc.us_nw.png

You leave and it snows? Coincidence? Analog?

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z vs 00z Snowfall thru hour 228/240

Washington

image.thumb.png.f67c3d8be10a0283c96700a0378bb789.png

Oregon

image.thumb.png.67d6035a89171f9c9de52677b3fedc10.png

Tim is gonna have to start taking care of that garden. Pretty sure he planted something this past weekend. Bad idea! 😝

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tim is gonna have to start taking care of that garden. Pretty sure he planted something this past weekend. Bad idea! 😝

Might be the end of the roses blooming!    But we cleaned out everything from the vegetable garden yesterday.   Ready for winter.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be the end of the roses blooming!    But we cleaned out everything from the vegetable garden yesterday.   Ready for winter.

Have you tried planting some guernsey lily? Or do you have any fall/winter plants?  We planted some this past year thinking they’re  spring/summer flowers but apparently they bloom during the fall/winter. Quite beautiful! And they’re actually not that of a hassle to care for this time of year. 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Have you tried planting some guernsey lily? Or do you have any fall/winter plants?  We planted some this past year thinking they’re  spring/summer flowers but apparently they bloom during the fall/winter. Quite beautiful! And they’re actually not that of a hassle to care for this time of year. 

Have not tried that.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Got back to Tacoma about an hour ago…hit some light rain in silverdale but the roads weren’t really wet until I got south of Bremerton. 

 Looks like we had a low temp of 40 and 0.02” so far here today. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-15.15”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-45

Coldest Low-34

 

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12z EPS finally drops the Mongolian High D8-9, with a solid Scand High/Aleutian Low regime D10-15.

Looks like a wavey breaky 2nd half of Nov. 🥳

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I just told everyone that it's going to snow next week and it's guaranteed. 😀

Good! I want that snow and cold held off until the holiday season :) 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Weeklies are out.  These are 5 day averages not daily averages. 

 

405959504_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom.gif

Not terrible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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CFS now going warm and dry for December, cold in January, very cold in February. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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