Jump to content

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ya. Kuchera shows nothing and is obviously more reasonable. Not sure whats up with the 10:1 map other than some serious temp gradients and resolution? I'll let someone else poke around the soundings. 

image.thumb.png.b7d015cbcce7349fee1510eae034dbf7.png

 

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z Euro vs 12z Euro - Snowfall - Hour 90

hmmmmmm me thinks those shades of grey are darker...not lighter?

image.thumb.png.faec7ae671b68ee68157d32523b00ad1.png

image.thumb.png.41a593e016ebb1ec70a9b9b6f3297dfa.png

I'll let everyone know if we get 6". 

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are going to get a sense on how the ECMWF is doing in a few hours... its shows some snow tomorrow morning. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_3hr_10to1-6214400.png

I am somewhat befuddled. The metro area dewpoints stand at 39-41 degrees fahrenheit. Now unless there is some major drying overnight that is unbeknownst to me or some crazy wet bulb cooling about to commence I am just lost......

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Typical NWS Seattle... Always waiting till they can see the whites of the eyes before issuing any warnings. The fact they haven't issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow the Euro's showing is befuddling, and frankly endangering public safety. Do they not know what a half inch of snow does to the city? 

If only they were more like NWS Portland... It'd be a full on Winter Storm Warning and the alarms would be blazing. Way more fun.

At least Les Schwab can make a killing in the Portland metro area much more frequently than with their Puget sound dealers. 😉

 

You need these studs for the incoming skiff of snow. Regardless of how it ruins the asphalt......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like 48/40 today. Currently sitting at 40. It's definitely going to be our coldest weekend of the fall. Tomorrow and Sunday look good for sub-45 highs. GFS does get us close to snow Sunday morning. I wouldn't be shocked to see flakes in the air. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_7.png

  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS control run shows something like that in 2 weeks:

 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7409600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-t850_anom_stream-7409600.png

Coldest anomalies right over Timmysupercell. 🥶 

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

The Euro weeklies control run. 🤣 Lock it in! 👏

 

ecmwf-weeklies-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-8921600.thumb.png.96d473571341307d313cf763f3d183fc.pngecmwf-weeklies-c00-nw-t2m_c_anom_7day-8921600.thumb.png.ac62f87a0a35c4079c4d8c9800185e4a.png

That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW.

NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Typical NWS Seattle... Always waiting till they can see the whites of the eyes before issuing any warnings. The fact they haven't issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow the Euro's showing is befuddling, and frankly endangering public safety. Do they not know what a half inch of snow does to the city? 

If only they were more like NWS Portland... It'd be a full on Winter Storm Warning and the alarms would be blazing. Way more fun.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/stressed-out-in-seattle-were-the-most-anxious-major-metro-in-the-u-s-new-census-data-shows/

No surprise to me at all.  I have always thought of Seattle as being a panicky city. Where the local news goes wall to wall with coverage of a half inch of snow, where the weather forecasters put "brrrr" signs whenever the temp goes below 40, and when the lead story so often is 'Rain is moving in . . .:"

I always thought it would be hilarious to see a minor earthquake during a snowstorm in Seattle.  The city wouldn't know what to do with itself.

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW.

NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine.

That first week to 10 days of December is historically pretty good for us in terms of cold snaps. Not only have we had some really big cold snaps like 1932, 1972, 2009, 2013 in that period, we've had a lot of chilly/cold shots that portended bigger things later on, 1992, 2016 being more recent examples of such. But we saw it in 1956 and 1968 as well. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s the type of pattern that could trigger a SSW.

NW-Pacific low, Nordic ridge/-NAO. Wave activity flux machine.

I would have thought that type of pattern would be a result of a SSW, not a trigger for one but perhaps it can be both a result and a trigger?

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, MossMan said:

Major dumpage currently. 

Moss, we had snow in Stanwood today in 2017. How much did you get, if you remember?

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody trying to do a forum meet up this holiday season?? Hmu and I’ll create a group chat in the dm’s on here 

I kind of like the mystery element of not knowing what everyone looks like 😱!?!  Kind of like RentonHillTC gig but different 

https://seattle.craigslist.org/d/missed-connections/search/mis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I kind of like the mystery element of not knowing what everyone looks like 😱!?!  Kind of like RentonHillTC gig but different 

https://seattle.craigslist.org/d/missed-connections/search/mis

Watch out for cougars in port orchard

https://seattle.craigslist.org/kit/mis/d/bremerton-cute-young-man-on-lund/7404164277.html

  • lol 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Moss, we had snow in Stanwood today in 2017. How much did you get, if you remember?

I was still living west of Smokey Point at that time, we ended up with almost an inch when all was said and done. Here is my FB memories from 4yrs ago today! 

B817515C-F358-4F46-BDCA-135A40CECD37.jpeg

  • Like 6
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS sends it to the OR/CA border again.

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I got my snow tires put on this afternoon for the big event this weekend. Stocked up on frozen pizzas and energy drinks as well. 

Don't forget to stock up on kale!

  • Excited 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Storm 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Surprisingly cool evening with a current temp of 41 here.  Can't wait to see when the first real cold wave comes into focus.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 8 Almost trying to Kona pinching off that trough

500h_anom.na.png

A lot of model runs are hinting at this possibility. 

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...