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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Still only 45 degrees with a quarter inch of rain in the bucket. Up to 1.77 on the month.

Same here. SEA entered today with 1.51” for the month…. Today should push it near 2” in less than a week. 

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51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's amazing how much more frequently we used to get hit with legitimate arctic air. We had torchy months too. January 1925 was a total torch following the huge December 1924 blast. December 1922 had a really impressive cold snap too, a good event at the end of 1927. Major anafront snow in December 1928. Some really good December events in the 20s... Not to mention the good January ones like 1922, 1924, 1927, 1928, 1929. 

Just amazing how much more common good events were, even Salem was doing that well I'm sure Seattle - North had some amazing events that didn't even penetrate this far south that decade. 

February 1923 was huge here.

1928-29 was just plain orgasmic here as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Yes. Will hinge on the evolution of the general circulation this winter, and whether there are any significant MJOs (which we’re realizing may be triggered indirectly via extratropical wave dynamics).

But either 2022/23 or 2023/24 is likely to be a moderate or strong El Niño. A healthy single year event, most likely. There’s a quasi-variable natural frequency of sorts when it comes to ENSO and the IPWP.

I personally hope it’s 2023/24 that transitions to El Niño. Would make for much better winter patterns and possibly cooler summers as well, both in 2022 and 2023. But next year wouldn’t surprise me at all.

If the ENSO goes neutral next winter and we see a shift to +QBO, then 1990/91 could be an analog for the 2022/23 winter.

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45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looking at KEUG for 1924, I think you'd freak if we repeated :) 

Dec 1924 was a phenomenal region wide event.  In Landsburg it snowed a foot and then got frigid for days.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Still only 43 degrees here currently. 

Amazing how cold that feels in the middle of the afternoon.  My hands are frozen after working out side for a while.

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just blows my mind every time I look at December 1924.  In Landsburg it started out at 50 degrees with a firehose on the 15th and had plunged to 13 by the end of the 16th.  A foot of snow fell during the crash as well.  Twelve consecutive max temps of 36 or lower with most of them freezing or lower.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow gfs is all over the place for so close to the event. Good lord.

My thoughts exactly. The NAM, EURO, GEM, and ECMWF show no model agreement at all. That tells me this could 'sneak' up on us and nail us with a big wind storm. We shall see!

00z NAM in 3 hours 27 minutes

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Looks like it's about to get interesting here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Nothing but heavy rain and gusty winds here.  It just seems like an impossibility to get thunder here this year.

Currently an impressively chilly 44 degrees.

  • Storm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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GOA block and a cold snap on this run around mid month.  That idea is really growing some legs now.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Oh cool.

prateptype_cat.na.png

  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

GOA block and a cold snap on this run around mid month.  That idea is really growing some legs now.

Mildly interesting. HERE WE GO.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The GFS shows an Arctic front almost making it to the BC / WA border.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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42 degrees now.  Really chilly for this time of day.

  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

D**n fun to look at. The "What ifs" and all of that jazz....

00z GFS in 4 hours 37 minutes

Things are starting to get fun.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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44/37 today, reminds me of the early November 2011 trough. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Looking towards the Olympics with current radar.  Could of swore their was lumpy rain with that last band that went through.  I assume it was hail

43*

 

90F7CAA0-1836-4A83-A8C8-3DC3DFFCAE01.jpeg

0FDC5348-46A2-4AA8-A8ED-73682035677F.png

You can sure tell things are convective today with those pix.  This is a good pattern to see this time of year.

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  • Storm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Good luck to all the dogs up there. 200.gif

UW 24 Oregon 21

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The temperature continued to drop after the shower and is now down to 41.  Downright nippy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looks like another line of showers is set to sweep across the area.  Maybe more places will see some flakes mix in.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's amazing how much more frequently we used to get hit with legitimate arctic air. We had torchy months too. January 1925 was a total torch following the huge December 1924 blast. December 1922 had a really impressive cold snap too, a good event at the end of 1927. Major anafront snow in December 1928. Some really good December events in the 20s... Not to mention the good January ones like 1922, 1924, 1927, 1928, 1929. 

Just amazing how much more common good events were, even Salem was doing that well I'm sure Seattle - North had some amazing events that didn't even penetrate this far south that decade. 

The 1915-30 period was almost nonstop. 1918-19, 1920-21, and 1925-26 were the only years in there to lack a significant arctic airmass and snowstorm combo for Portland. 

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 1915-30 period was almost nonstop. 1918-19, 1920-21, and 1925-26 were the only years in there to lack a significant arctic airmass and snowstorm combo for Portland. 

I think even Jan 1926 had a short Arctic blast in there.  That period was ridiculous.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think even Jan 1926 had a short Arctic blast in there.  That period was ridiculous.

Nah, just some fake cold at times that month before we moved to split flow hell. Some impressive October and early November arctic airmasses in the West, though. Nino kiss of death!

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