PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

No thank you. Just pizza, energy drinks, toilet paper and meth for me. 

Hope you're kidding about the meth.  That stuff is horrible.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hope you're kidding about the meth.  That stuff is horrible.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The coastal waters have had a hell of a lot of excitement the last few weeks.

Yep most definitely.

00z ECMWF in 56 minutes

[Kolk1604]

[Kolk1604]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF in 56 minutes

You think they would consider running this 2 hours earlier? You know for those that start work at 6am...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some major arctic air may go east of the Rockies on this run, maybe we can snag some backdoor action. 

[snow_wizard]

The analogs are just tantalizing right now.  Most of them really delivered the goods in the long run.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

You think they would consider running this 2 hours earlier? You know for those that start work at 6am...

Starting Sunday all models will be an hour earlier, due to going back to Standard time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just move the base of that ridge a little west...

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Starting Sunday all models will be an hour earlier, due to going back to Standard time.

So that is true? I did hear about that, but I always thought the Euro started just before 11. 

Maybe I just don't remember. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The analogs are just tantalizing right now.  Most of them really delivered the goods in the long run.

Post the analogs 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

I've seen enough pictures of what people addicted to that crap eventually look like.  You would have to hate yourself to take it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just move the base of that ridge a little west...

Alaska looks toasty

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just move the base of that ridge a little west...

At this point as long as things are amplified I'm not too worried about placement.  That piece will eventually settle in nicely for us.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've seen enough pictures of what people addicted to that crap eventually look like.  You would have to hate yourself to take it.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice line between 2 air masses

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little bleed into E. Washington. 

[Kolk1604]

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Strong push of cold air into Montana

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I'm an X er actually.

[snow drift]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A little bleed into E. Washington. 

A little spill over through the Purcell Trench

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, snow drift said:

Strong push of cold air into Montana

The million dollar question is what will actually happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall though not a very interesting run. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall though not a very interesting run. 

2008 has been coming up as a frequent analog recently.  That November was painfully boring.  I'm not so sure this one will be in the end though.

Even if the month turns out to be a piece of sheit with a Nina a delay of the goods is often a good thing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2008 has been coming up as a frequent analog recently.  That November was painfully boring.  I'm not so sure this one will be in the end though.

Even if the month turns out to be a piece of sheit with a Nina a delay of the goods is often a good thing

Don’t worry. No winter cancel in November this year. 

[Deweydog]

Running out of time….

[Gradient Keeper]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just move the base of that ridge a little west...

Time to watch for notches and trends! C'MON!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Down to 40 here now.  Looks like a shot at 30s before midnight.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

32 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So that is true? I did hear about that, but I always thought the Euro started just before 11. 

Maybe I just don't remember. 

They will run it at the same time, but our time will have changed.  It will run between 9:30 and 11:00 AM/PM starting Sunday. And the GFS will be between 7:30 and 9 AM/PM.

[BLI snowman]

Six weeks until sun angles increase.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of low to mid 30s already in the north half of Central and Eastern WA tonight.  Winter is beginning to take hold.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Six weeks until sun angles increase.

That was true for all of the greatest winters we've ever had as well.  Many of which didn't get going at all until mid December.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like they added Sumas to the Mesonet.  That will be a fun one to watch during Arctic blasts.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was true for all of the greatest winters we've ever had as well.  Many of which didn't get going at all until mid December.

Huh?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Huh?

I know he was trying to play the Debbie Downer roll and I just countered it.

[Gradient Keeper]

10:47 PM Radar Update

VERY heavy rain roughly I-5 eastward in PDX metro and down the valley toward Foothills. There is a burst of wind with this too.

[Deweydog]

Even on 11/5/91, meteorological winter didn’t start for another 25 days and lasted for 90 days.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I know he was trying to play the Debbie Downer roll and I just countered it.

Uma Upper.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Uma Upper.

No uppers for Jim