PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is moving solidly toward a mid month cold snap.  The operational and EPS control both show a good cold shot, and the EPS run to run change made a big move in the right direction.

[snow drift]

[GHweatherChris]

29 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

"The researchers reviewed hundreds of scientific studies, honing in on 18 of them to develop projections for when “low-to-no-snow” winters would arrive for several Western mountain ranges, including the Cascades."

Let me translate.  The researchers took data that would fit their narrative and used that data to project what they wanted to promote, then the media took it, made a headline, and buried the meat of the content in a vague sentence. Yep.

I had a bag of pristine, non broken chips.  I took the three broken chips and said the bag was mostly all broken chips in my review that I published to Chip Enthusiasts Monthly.  Good journal by the way.  

Sounds eerily familiar.... non weather related of course.

[Cloud]

34 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Nino 2022. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Yes both can be true. The NW-Pacific low and Nordic ridge can serve as conduit to -NAM in troposphere and inception of w1 response in stratosphere, which can evolve into SSW under the right conditions.

Blocking often begets blocking.

[smerfylicious]

Stevens Pass is getting some good powder currently. Just watching the webcam at work. Gotta love snow season!

[T-Town]

I just installed the wsdot app on my phone. Maybe I'm the last to know, but it's way easier to do a Washington cam tour on the app than using the website. 

[T-Town]

[MossMan]

Smells like snow this morning out in brisk chilly air. 

[T-Town]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Smells like snow this morning out in brisk chilly air. 

We grabbed the exact same stevens summit photo. Trippy…

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We grabbed the exact same stevens summit photo. Trippy…

I noticed that after I had posted mine, you beat me to it! Wish I was up there right now. 

[TT-SEA]

Rain showers and 41 here this morning... don't even see snow on the ridge.     ECMWF was definitely wrong for this morning.

I don't understand why the ECMWF has such bad terrain resolution.   Its usually much better overall at predicting snow events and amounts... but in these very marginal situations it can show ridiculous snow amounts here and nothing happens.   On the other hand, the WRF is often terrible for the lowlands with the large scale features but it has much better terrain resolution.  

The 00Z ECMWF showed 12-16 inches of snow here this weekend... the 00Z WRF showed none.   The ECMWF does not distinguish the valleys out here while the WRF does that very well.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rain showers and 41 here this morning... don't even see snow on the ridge.     ECMWF was definitely wrong for this morning.

I don't understand why the ECMWF has such bad terrain resolution.   Its usually much better overall at predicting snow events and amounts... but in these very marginal situations it can show ridiculous snow amounts here and nothing happens.   On the other hand, the WRF is often terrible for the lowlands with the large scale features but it has much better terrain resolution.  

The 00Z ECMWF showed 12-16 inches of snow here this weekend... the 00Z WRF showed none.   The ECMWF does not distinguish the valleys out here while the WRF does that very well.

 

 

Go snow go!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Some rain is melted snow. Gravity is not fast enough.

[TT-SEA]

Latest sunrise of the year... and there is a little snow on the top of Mt. Si this morning.

[LowerGarfield]

A cool 44F 10 mins ago. 

[RentonHill]

12z NAM - Tuesday progression - this thing actually takes a left turn at the coast and comes right up and over neah bay. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, SnowChild said:

I’m going to enjoy reading this article in 50 years. 

Sad fact is I probably won't be here in 50 years, it's possible, I would be 87, but odds are I won't be. 

[The Swamp]

43 here in the swam this morning with off and on moderate rain.

Tad bit colder and some of these down pours could be mixed rain/snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41 with showers. We ended up with 0.50" of rain yesterday, another 0.34" in the bucket since midnight. Approaching 2.5" on the month. Seems the models are undecided on whether or no we actually dry out.

[Blizzard777]

43*  and very light rain.

.04 precipitation 

[TT-SEA]

Low clouds cleared temporarily from the top of the ridge and there is some snow up there...

[RentonHill]

I missed it 

[Blizzard777]

I was going to run down to the coast this weekend for the King tides but storms seem wussy this weekend.  Looks like all the action will be in the mountains in the form of white stuff 

[Timmy Supercell]

Got a room at Holiday Inn Express last night, we technically haven't driven out of K-Falls but we had to get out of the house with a 110% packed truck. Some furniture was left behind so the new owner has free stuff. lol

[MossMan]

The moderate rain almost has a chunk to it…Maybe? I’m at work at the moment so I don’t know temp but I feel like it really dropped when the precip started. 

[Meatyorologist]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Latest sunrise of the year... and there is a little snow on the top of Mt. Si this morning.

That would have been a great hike up there this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Breaking News! 00z CFS has arctic air for Thanksgiving. 

[RentonHill]

12z GFS 

 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Wasn’t an ice age supposed to start in 2010?

Case in point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Timmy Supercell]

The period from the late 90's thru 2009 down here had more winters that were either normal or barely. 

I think it was considered unusual to have stretches of 2 or more seasons above normal, we've had a few of those since 2010. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Torch thanksgiving it is, then.  

[Christensen87]

Tuesday storm is back, and arctic air for Thanksgiving? Happy Saturday! Heading to the UW game today, no wind advisory but we’ll see! 

[Randyc321]

Where is the wind this morning?  I see some breezy conditions on the coast intermittently, and down near Longview as well as up near Bellingham, but calm everywhere else it looks like.

 

46, calm and a light rain on Bainbridge right now.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Where is the wind this morning?  I see some breezy conditions on the coast intermittently, and down near Longview as well as up near Bellingham, but calm everywhere else it looks like.

 

46, calm and a light rain on Bainbridge right now.

ECMWF shows the wind picking up later this morning... probably after this band of rain coming through now.

[Meatyorologist]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z GFS 

 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, snow drift said:

Niño/+QBO following multiyear Niña/retracted IPWP.

Get ready for a Tim torch summer and snowless winter if that happens.

[LowerGarfield]

I was thankful for the late sunrise and son was able to sleep in. Yesterday, my five year old did not want to get up for school because he told me it was too dark outside at 7am. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño/+QBO following multiyear Niña/retracted IPWP.

Get ready for a Tim torch summer and snowless winter if that happens.

I like the sunny, warm summer part... but not the snowless winter.     Seasonal variety is nice.