PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Cloud]

It’s incredibly “dark” out being at 9:30am. Sitting right under the very heavy stuff right now. 

Speaking of dark. Daylight saving ends tomorrow morning… today is last full day. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s incredibly “dark” out being at 9:30am. Sitting right under the very heavy stuff right now. 

Speaking of dark. Daylight saving ends tomorrow morning… today is last full day. 

As mentioned... today was the latest sunrise of the year.      And tomorrow it will be totally dark by 5 p.m.

Its not that dark here right now.   I think there is some offshore component this morning as the rain is very light.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sad fact is I probably won't be here in 50 years, it's possible, I would be 87, but odds are I won't be. 

Makes you wonder what the medical capabilities will be then. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z seems to be trending wetter again. lol

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño/+QBO following multiyear Niña/retracted IPWP.

Get ready for a Tim torch summer and snowless winter if that happens.

You think there's any chance we avoid an El Niño year and stay neutral, maybe even go for that elusive triple dip?

[Randyc321]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Makes you wonder what the medical capabilities will be then. 

Cyborgs!

Resistance is futile

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

You think there's any chance we avoid an El Niño year and stay neutral, maybe even go for that elusive triple dip?

Whoaaaaa

[Randyc321]

31 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Where is the wind this morning?  I see some breezy conditions on the coast intermittently, and down near Longview as well as up near Bellingham, but calm everywhere else it looks like.

 

46, calm and a light rain on Bainbridge right now.

Wind is here now.  So are very dark skies and much heavier rain.

 

Nice day

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Cyborgs!

Resistance is futile

I already am one

[Cloud]

Getting breezy last half hour or so. Wind is picking up. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

D**n... It's dumping here. Temp sitting at 42.

Raining harder here now too.   Satellite shows we might see some sun breaks soon.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Cyborgs!

Resistance is futile

According to some people artificial intelligence is our bigger threat to survival even nuclear war. Elon musk said it best, what do we do when artificial intelligence is smarter than the smartest people on earth?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

According to some people artificial intelligence is our bigger threat to survival even nuclear war. Elon musk said it best, what do we do when artificial intelligence is smarter than the smartest people on earth?

What if it already is and we are in a simulation?

[Cloud]

So close!

[Deweydog]

It feels like the only reason left for setting the clocks back in our society is so models come out an hour earlier.

[FroYoBro]

Really heavy rainfall with this little line coming through right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally have a WWA posted for the Oregon Cascades.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

According to some people artificial intelligence is our bigger threat to survival even nuclear war. Elon musk said it best, what do we do when artificial intelligence is smarter than the smartest people on earth?

Pull the plug.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It feels like the only reason left for setting the clocks back in our society is so models come out an hour earlier.

I kind of like the changing of the clocks.  Probably just because that's the way its always been.  I think the biggest reason at our latitude is so the kids aren't going to school in pitch dark during the winter.

[Timmy Supercell]

33 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

According to some people artificial intelligence is our bigger threat to survival even nuclear war. Elon musk said it best, what do we do when artificial intelligence is smarter than the smartest people on earth?

Interesting there's hardly any mention of nuclear meltdown, a really huge solar flare strong enough to black out the planet could definitely carry that risk. 

[snow_wizard]

Certainly a chilly raw day out there.

Looks like the 12z GFS is coming more in line with the Euro on that mid month cold snap.  Not a huge deal, but a decent cold shot.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Interesting there's hardly any mention of nuclear meltdown, a really huge solar flare strong enough to black out the planet could definitely carry that risk. 

That's a very real threat.  A Carrington flare event in the modern era could be catastrophic in a number of ways.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of like the changing of the clocks.  Probably just because that's the way its always been.  I think the biggest reason at our latitude is so the kids aren't going to school in pitch dark during the winter.

Middle and high school kids still go to school in the dark here in the winter even with the time change.

[SnowWillarrive]

47 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

According to some people artificial intelligence is our bigger threat to survival even nuclear war. Elon musk said it best, what do we do when artificial intelligence is smarter than the smartest people on earth?

End of days 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of like the changing of the clocks.  Probably just because that's the way its always been.  I think the biggest reason at our latitude is so the kids aren't going to school in pitch dark during the winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Interesting there's hardly any mention of nuclear meltdown, a really huge solar flare strong enough to black out the planet could definitely carry that risk. 

Artificial intelligence is scary.  If you start reading about it and watching videos you'll know what I'm talking about.  Kinda like the story line on the terminator movie.  It could actually happen now and back then it was just Science fantasy.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm somewhat impressed with the colder air today.  Still only 41 here and the last rain shower was chunky.  Splat test confirmed on skylight.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Artificial intelligence is scary.  If you start reading about it and watching videos you'll know what I'm talking about.  Kinda like the story line on the terminator movie.  It could actually happen now and back then it was just Science fantasy.  

I think anybody who actually works in IT would be able to calm your fears about robot/ai takeover

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snow has begun at our property.  My brother just finished his solar power system so he has internet and now I can check live camera pics lol. 

[Deweydog]

All this robot talk made me think of this. Classic…

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed a 1/2 inch of snow for the Seattle area this morning before 11 a.m. and 1-2 inches of snow here this morning.    Currently 43 here and not snowing.    Nice initialization.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

You think there's any chance we avoid an El Niño year and stay neutral, maybe even go for that elusive triple dip?

Yes. Will hinge on the evolution of the general circulation this winter, and whether there are any significant MJOs (which we’re realizing may be triggered indirectly via extratropical wave dynamics).

But either 2022/23 or 2023/24 is likely to be a moderate or strong El Niño. A healthy single year event, most likely. There’s a quasi-variable natural frequency of sorts when it comes to ENSO and the IPWP.

I personally hope it’s 2023/24 that transitions to El Niño. Would make for much better winter patterns and possibly cooler summers as well, both in 2022 and 2023. But next year wouldn’t surprise me at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice squall blasted through SE PDX around 10:45 AM with thunder, hail, and a burst of winds to 30mph. Oh, and 12z MM5-NAM, WRF-GFS brings back a strong low moving onshore near Westport, WA. C'MON!!!!

18z GFS in 3 hours 29 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

12z MM5-NAM, WRF-GFS

.... POSSIBLE QUICK HITTING WIND EVENT/STORM LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...

PDX metro-Northern Willamette Valley

 

Both morning model runs of the NAM, GFS now show a surface low developing Monday morning in the vicinity 40-41 N, 135 W taking a classic southwesterly trajectory. Unlike previous runs weakening the low or taking it into southern Oregon, now the models keep it intact with the NAM deepening it to 983mb landfall near Westport, WA with peak wind gusts 3-6 AM of 40-60mph. The WRF is a bit weaker around 987mb landfall just south of Ocean Shores, WA and peak gusts also around 3-6 AM of 40-50mph. We'll have to see what the 12z EURO run shows today. Let's keep an eye on this in case the models do now want a solitary deep low to track somewhere near the south or central Washington Coast. C'MON!!!!

 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12z MM5-NAM, WRF-GFS

.... POSSIBLE QUICK HITTING WIND EVENT/STORM LATE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING...

PDX metro-Northern Willamette Valley

 

Both morning model runs of the NAM, GFS now show a surface low developing Monday morning in the vicinity 40-41 N, 135 W taking a classic southwesterly trajectory. Unlike previous runs weakening the low or taking it into southern Oregon, now the models keep it intact with the NAM deepening it to 983mb landfall near Westport, WA with peak wind gusts 3-6 AM of 40-60mph. The WRF is a bit weaker around 987mb landfall just south of Ocean Shores, WA and peak gusts also around 3-6 AM of 40-50mph. We'll have to see what the 12z EURO run shows today. Let's keep an eye on this in case the models do now want a solitary deep low to track somewhere near the south or central Washington Coast. C'MON!!!!

 

12 Euro not on board at first glance

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

12 Euro not on board at first glance

Still feels like a lot can/will change

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

12 Euro not on board at first glance

Of course it isn't. King EURO means we get ZERO! I just made that up.

00z ECMWF in 11 hours 33 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Still feels like a lot can/will change

Yeah for sure a lot can and will change between now and Monday morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F with on and off rain.