Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Full 12z euro run

A24FF1D2-D138-4D42-AD6F-0BAAA7C8C1F5.gif

Looks like the cold air is going to east. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wouldn’t  that strengthening SE ridge sort of bottle it up in the Midwest?

I meant east of us. It looks like its diving into the Intermountain region.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

12 EPS through hour 312

D00C5AE1-55AF-469A-A3CF-D6447B106603.gif

Oof

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. 

I'm talking more about why the upper level stuff is usually more supportive early in the season than late.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yuck. Onto 00z ....

The ECMWF was quite good and the EPS continues to trend more toward it.  I'm pretty surprised nobody seemed too impressed with the ECMWF today.  150 block, and a lot of cold air in play.

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

39 degrees and rain.  Impressive cold November day.

I'm impressed by the fact we are getting such cold air mixing with so much moisture this early in the season.  Pretty unusual for this early.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

46* with a little wind as this line goes through. Fun stuff slid north of me again.  No dramatic cloud action to be seen on my end :(

I'm a little bit puzzled myself why the really good stuff has mostly avoided yours and my area so far.  The Langley Hill radar shows another impressive area of showers moving our way that looks more promising placement wise.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

On a fun note my pic the other day made the news!  Always fun to be part of the weather segment 😊

704D0DB9-8C10-4571-A613-078CCC907BDA.jpeg

That is a great pic.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since no one else is talking about it I figured I might as well post this.

 

cold.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • Snow 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a little bit puzzled myself why the really good stuff has mostly avoided yours and my area so far.  The Langley Hill radar shows another impressive area of showers moving our way that looks more promising placement wise.

I’ve noticed this happening quite often.  I’m sure somehow the terrain is to blame and my area just doesn’t know how ruffle the air currents enough.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm talking more about why the upper level stuff is usually more supportive early in the season than late.

The inversion part is easy, but I’d have to defer to Lord Phil as to the exactitudes of why blocking tends to become a lot more transitory as we get well into February and especially March. I’m sure insulation itself has at least something to do with it. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I never have fully understood why we are so much more capable of getting cold early in the season than late in this region.

I suspect it’s related to seasonal cycle(s) in wavelengths driven by differential heating/etc.

On the surface you’d think the thermal inertia of the Pacific Ocean would produce a delayed winter peak in the PNW, but it seems the Arctic cooling/tightening thermal gradient thru DJF runs the entire show.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very good article on the Vancouver tornado here.  In some pix it almost looks like a wedge tornado.  Never seen one like that here.

The Weather Network – November ‘ultra-rare’ tornado hits Vancouver, BC, reported damage – Aws For WP

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know it’s been said many times but 2006/07 was such a complete fun winter! Major flooding event in early November, massive snow/arctic event in late November, massive windstorm in December, a great arctic/snow event in January, and a fun snow event in late February. 
Yeah I would take a repeat! 

C8A4DBA8-6772-44EA-A75A-A125A07BA20F.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I don't have access to those maps. Hmmm.... Chilly. Tons of cold air building to our north right where we want it.

The stuff over us is pretty darn cold too.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I know it’s been said many times but 2006/07 was such a complete fun winter! Major flooding event in early November, massive snow/arctic event in late November, massive windstorm in December, a great arctic/snow event in January, and a fun snow event in late February. 
Yeah I would take a repeat! 

C8A4DBA8-6772-44EA-A75A-A125A07BA20F.jpeg

Jan 2007 was certainly my favorite January event of the century so far.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty simple. Being so maritime-dominant, our lowland snow season is much more in line with the solstice due to the needed assistance of inversions and full latitude blocking. 

I think the West as a whole sees a lot more early season cold compared to the East. It's not just a PNW thing.

Edit: I now see Brian's map shows this as well.

  • Like 3

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I know it’s been said many times but 2006/07 was such a complete fun winter! Major flooding event in early November, massive snow/arctic event in late November, massive windstorm in December, a great arctic/snow event in January, and a fun snow event in late February. 
Yeah I would take a repeat! 

C8A4DBA8-6772-44EA-A75A-A125A07BA20F.jpeg

And it was an El Niño.

And so was 2018/19. And 1968/69. 😱

  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

I’ve noticed this happening quite often.  I’m sure somehow the terrain is to blame and my area just doesn’t know how ruffle the air currents enough.

Looks we might get our turn today.  Some pretty hefty stuff headed our way.  It's already chilly, breezy, and wet here.  Only 44 degrees.

  • Excited 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I don't have access to those maps. Hmmm.... Chilly. Tons of cold air building to our north right where we want it.

Yeah there is a lot of cold arctic air building and surging directly south on the 12z run. Definitely a lot of potential there. Andrew is just being a Debbie Downer. 😜

 

ecmwf_T850_namer_fh192-240.gif

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect it’s related to seasonal cycle(s) in wavelengths driven by differential heating/etc.

On the surface you’d think the thermal inertia of the Pacific Ocean would produce a delayed winter peak in the PNW, but it seems the Arctic cooling/tightening thermal gradient thru DJF runs the entire show.

To me one of the most interesting aspects of this climate is how seasonal lag only really effects the warm season. Spring is very long around here with June actually being slightly cooler on average than September, while fall is very abbreviated compared to places east of the Rockies. Averages bottom out pretty much right on the solstice and start ticking up a couple tenths before New Years.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah there is a lot of cold arctic air building and surging directly south on the 12z run. Definitely a lot of potential there. Andrew is just being a Debbie Downer. 😜

 

Andrew likes flat zonal flow. What is exciting for him isn’t exciting for 90% of the forum. 🙃

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
  • Rain 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The inversion part is easy, but I’d have to defer to Lord Phil as to the exactitudes of why blocking tends to become a lot more transitory as we get well into February and especially March. I’m sure insulation itself has at least something to do with it. 

I don’t doubt you re: inversion season.

It just seems that’s merely one piece of the puzzle as winter starts (and peaks) earlier across the entire western US/Canada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah there is a lot of cold arctic air building and surging directly south on the 12z run. Definitely a lot of potential there. Andrew is just being a Debbie Downer. 😜

 

ecmwf_T850_namer_fh192-240.gif

You should do well if that verifies. 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Cold zonal flow is actually a good pattern.

Warm zonal flow is the most godawful thing about our winters.

Yeah I would argue that January 2008, or March 2012 are better than 90% of our boring winter weather patterns. I prefer zonal flow over some of the lame patterns some on here cheerlead, specifically "blocking" that is really just a big west coast ridge they try to wish into retrograding. You won't see me complaining about December 2013 or early January 2017.

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been cloudy and dry all day in Springfield so far. Got to Coburg and it started pouring. Very defined precip gradient. Good thing we’re ahead of the pace in the precip dept for Nov so far.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

And as talked about, 850 temps 

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-t850-7150400.png

ecmwf-deterministic-portland-t850-7150400.png

Looks good. I’ll believe it when the GFS comes around. 

  • Like 1
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS sucked.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...