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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast.

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13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast.

This could get interesting. Now I'm interested to what the 6z GFS is going to show. 

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Are we gonna get a surprise blow?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z ICON not onboard with a bit weaker open wave.

 

ICON definitely seems closer to last run, actually. Sharper gradient, more semblance of a closed low than whatever last run showed haha

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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GFS not on board yet, but not too surprised.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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This has a very similar look to 1/6/19

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m clowning on Joshua.

10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late.

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9 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

It was definitely up on the mountains around you though. I was up on Rattlesnake Mountain this evening. Snow level started around 2,000 ft and by 3,000 ft there was 8-12”+ of fresh snow.

EA365844-701E-4301-A3A1-48EDEEAD0244.thumb.jpeg.b8b74af6ec75fe40ae2a06df7f80c501.jpeg
 

3C413D11-0576-4EBB-AF04-D5F60B4074EE.thumb.jpeg.1a51bee24c764d53d2dd516bf26b5bcb.jpeg

Great pics... did you come all the way down here to see snow?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This has a very similar look to 1/6/19

That is not good... that was a bad storm here.    Knocked out the power for a couple days and took down some trees in our area.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA has not had rain since midnight... so this will likely be the first dry day of the month.  

40 in North Bend and 39 here and it looks like skies are clearing.    Might even see some sun today.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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48 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

10th percentile is 1.69” at PDX through Friday. You want that action? I know you’re just messing with me. I will feel a whole lot better about our odds when we’re within 48 hours. Otherwise, I have seen these things fall apart wayyyy too many times of late.

You know I am just busting your chops!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

SEA has not had rain since midnight... so this will likely be the first dry day of the month.  

We've had 0.01".

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Hmmm, so checking the past few runs of the mesoscale models, FV3 Hi-Res, WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2, RGEM, HRRR, NAM 3km, and all have trended to developing either a strong wave of low pressure or closed surface low moving onto the WA coast.

Lock it in. Pull the trigger. November 9, 2021 will be remembered! 😉

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The fuzz!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

That is not good... that was a bad storm here.    Knocked out the power for a couple days and took down some trees in our area.

Only picture evidence I have of anything from 1/6/19 is some frozen precip on the roof. However I have lots of mud pics from early that month before I fixed our drainage issues! 

5F4B809E-FEFC-45F7-8EB5-967F08603215.jpeg

7A0DEBE2-D645-449C-B72B-DE9385DD4FC5.jpeg

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Great pics... did you come all the way down here to see snow?

Thanks and not exactly. I was in Seattle over the weekend and since I was down there decided that Rattlesnake was probably the least out of my way to see snow before heading home. Was originally thinking about heading up towards Si, but Rattlesnake was 10 minutes of less driving so that became the destination. It was heavy rain and 38F at the bottom, but wasn't too long before the rain became a mix and then snow which was a lot nicer to be in.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The PNA forecast has been slowing going more and more negative over the last few days for the second half of the month…C’MON!!!

D33F9CCC-AE1A-49B5-B408-0FCC158467D2.jpeg

I hope you save these every day or every time they are released so you can make a siiiick GIF of the progression throughout the entire season. 

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CFS showing the north pole migrating to the Western US the first week of December. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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500h_anom.na.png

No description available.

No description available.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Thursday is looking extremely wet in the Central Willamette Valley. Narrow band of 2-4" of rain in 24 hours. 

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_11.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Would like to see the 486 thickness line a little closer to us, ideally.

Later on the 522 line gets to about San Diego...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Some pics from this beautiful morning...

20211108_081855.jpg

20211108_082005.jpg

20211108_080511.jpg

Gorgeous pics. I will take a stunning shot of the river here in a moment. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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30 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Freezing fog 

 

Love freezing fog! This is when I visited Medford for the holidays in 2009 (moved here in 2010). This was on Christmas day but I'm a horrible picture taker so it doesn't do justice of how beautiful it looked.

 

IMG_2899[1].JPG

IMG_2901[1].JPG

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