PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I know it’s been said many times but 2006/07 was such a complete fun winter! Major flooding event in early November, massive snow/arctic event in late November, massive windstorm in December, a great arctic/snow event in January, and a fun snow event in late February. 
Yeah I would take a repeat! 

It was a good el niño winter. The next winter was far superior imho.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It was a good el niño winter. The next winter was far superior imho.

Why do they stop signing Let It Snow after Christmas?

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Cold continental air has been banned in California and Arizona.

Good thing @AlTahoe just has to drive east a couple miles.

It spills into the Tahoe basin easily. It's the west slope of the Sierra that usually misses out. 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah I would argue that January 2008, or March 2012 are better than 90% of our boring winter weather patterns. I prefer zonal flow over some of the lame patterns some on here cheerlead, specifically "blocking" that is really just a big west coast ridge they try to wish into retrograding. You won't see me complaining about December 2013 or early January 2017.

No complaints up here.

[Phil]

This is a difficult pattern because that GOA vortex is *exactly* where we need the blocking high to be.

Imagine this pattern reversed, and it’s the ideal setup for an arctic outbreak.

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Why do they stop signing Let It Snow after Christmas?

Good question. I honestly don't know.

[Phil]

Speaking of blocking, the long range 12z EPS projects an unhelpful pattern for +WAFz.

Scandinavian trough, ridge over E-Siberia/NW Pacific. This could serve as a conduit to a strong polar vortex/+NAM.

Then again it is a 3-wave pattern, which have a history of preceding significant cold in some regions.

[The Swamp]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a difficult pattern because that GOA vortex is *exactly* where we need the blocking high to be.

Imagine this pattern reversed, and it’s the ideal setup for an arctic outbreak.

During a Nina though won't that vortex in Alaska be replaced with ridging?

Pretty hard to get an arctic outbreak into the West if that vortex sets up shop for the winter in that location.  Let's hope it doesn't.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

During a Nina though won't that vortex in Alaska be replaced with ridging?

Pretty hard to get an arctic outbreak into the West if that vortex sets up shop for the winter in that location.  Let's hope it doesn't.

Yeah I think its days are numbered. Analog pools almost universally develop anticyclonic tendency in the GOA later this month into December.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

November torches are fine if they lead to goodies later.

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

November torches are fine if they lead to goodies later.

48 and breezy here

[Phil]

But I do like the projected warm anomalies @ 10mb over Siberia.

Siberian stratosphere in Nov is one of my pet indicators for Dec/Jan blocking in certain cases, maybe similar to Jim’s infatuation with October.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

GFS sucked.

It did, it was a little further south with that mini-AR later this week though!

[Cloud]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is a difficult pattern because that GOA vortex is *exactly* where we need the blocking high to be.

Imagine this pattern reversed, and it’s the ideal setup for an arctic outbreak.

This pattern will flip in the heart of winter. 

[GHweatherChris]

We had some sticking hail!!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

We had some sticking hail!!

Euro mistaken hail accumulation for snow accumulation?

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It was a good el niño winter. The next winter was far superior imho.

07-08 sucked bigly here. 

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

November torches are fine if they lead to goodies later.

I feel like this discussion is had every year, whether it be on the forums or wxtwitter, and yet still every year everyone forgets just how good of an omen a warm November actually is. Deja Vu.

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Euro mistaken hail accumulation for snow accumulation?

You are on your way to being a good lawyer! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

29 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

November torches are fine if they lead to goodies later.

How warm is a November torch there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No November torch today. High of 42. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

21 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

How warm is a November torch there?

A monthly temp avg of +2F or so and higher and/or an extended period of ridging.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A monthly temp avg of +2F or so and higher.

That's a lock!

[Cloud]

SEA have had 2 dry days (0 measurable) since Oct. 20th. Now over 2" for the month as well so it's been an incredibly wet stretch. 

Drought conditions pretty much nonexistent now for most of W. WA. And the great news is that if  you look at the comparison going back to when this really wet stretch started, it's chipping away into OR. Hopefully, when it's all said and done, we'll be good for Fall/Winter for PNW. 

fwiw, I find it completely fair for us to talk about drought conditions or lack thereof in the fall/winter if people are up in arms about it over the summer. 

[MossMan]

42/39 on the day. Currently 41.

.17” on the day. 

[Cloud]

Unfortunately for OR, no changes. Speaks to the drought severity down there. I'm quite surprise that the period in which SoOR and NorCal went through with the ARs did very little to put a dent in the drought for that area.

Going forward, hopefully we'll get more systems to go into OR and I can understand why @Joshua Lake Oswego is skeptical. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cloud said:

Unfortunately for OR, no changes. Speaks to the drought severity down there. I'm quite surprise that the period in which SoOR and NorCal went through with the ARs did very little to put a dent in the drought for that area.

Going forward, hopefully we'll get more systems to go into OR and I can understand why @Joshua Lake Oswego is skeptical. 

Many of those areas are going to need ample precip and a big snow pack. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

42/39 on the day. Currently 41.

.17” on the day. 

Not much of a temperature range there.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It's always wintry at Sunny Hill. 

[snow drift]

43 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA have had 2 dry days (0 measurable) since Oct. 20th. Now over 2" for the month as well so it's been an incredibly wet stretch. 

Drought conditions pretty much nonexistent now for most of W. WA. And the great news is that if  you look at the comparison going back to when this really wet stretch started, it's chipping away into OR. Hopefully, when it's all said and done, we'll be good for Fall/Winter for PNW. 

fwiw, I find it completely fair for us to talk about drought conditions or lack thereof in the fall/winter if people are up in arms about it over the summer. 

It's improved significantly over here. I never worry about drought during a la niña. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

07-08 sucked bigly here. 

I think you had to be above 1000 feet to really do well that winter.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's improved significantly over here. I never worry about drought during a la niña. 

Yup!! Noticed that as well. Glad to see E. WA go form exceptional to just severe. Still have long ways to go but the season is still young!

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I think you had to be above 1000 feet to really do well that winter.

I was at around 500’ at the time…It was soo frustrating having constant rain/snow mix with no accumulation over and over again.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

07-08 sucked bigly here. 

And I had 48 inches of snow. Still crazy thinking about that winter here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

15 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I think you had to be above 1000 feet to really do well that winter.

Hood canal area did good down to near sea level. Was a strange winter.

[MossMan]

Just need one more good blow to get the majority of the remaining leaves down. 

[RentonHill]

00z NAM (top) vs 18z NAM (bottom) - hour 30

[RentonHill]

00z NAM Max Wind Gust - hour 37 - not bad 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our leaves are long gone. 

[SnowWillarrive]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I was at around 500’ at the time…It was soo frustrating having constant rain/snow mix with no accumulation over and over again.

Yes I do remember that winter as well. Felt like the snow level was at 500 feet all the time. Really gloomy and sad time. 

I moved to an area around 600 feet near Enumclaw. Really excited to see how I do in marginal situations.