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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Maybe he's camping somewhere that has no cell service. 

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

D**n I hope the guy Is ok.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe... but its been 5 days now and that is longer than any camping trip he has taken.    Plus the weather was really bad over the weekend and he had just taken a trip to the Orcas the weekend before.

Once I forgot my password on this site when I got a new phone and was locked out for a while. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once I forgot my password on this site when I got a new phone and was locked out for a while. 

Ahhh... good point.    Did not think of that.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Same here, I bet he's fine, he could just be taking some personal time. 

Probably... but he has said some things about a hostile situation in his personal life that raises concern when he drops off with no warning.     Particularly during a very stormy period when he always posts during active weather.     He has given us a heads up before when he was taking a break.     

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Someone get that store manager on the phone stat!!

”did the 22yr old white guy who’s 6 ft tall and 170 pounds show up for work?”

Its my neighborhood FM.  Maybe I should go in after work and ask??

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Never seen this before.

 

FDxvDFMVQAUmHZm.jpg

This is the first time locally I’ve had the local news tracking the cell live, interrupted with the official alert from the emergency broadcast system and the followed up by the radio announcement as well.  Just wild! 
 

I wonder if this is the trend for our winter! 

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3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wind has been dead quiet so far this morning and there are some breaks in the clouds overhead.

I see Enumclaw reported a gust to 51 mph last night. Pretty much exactly what the NAM showed. I know it gets a ton of flak on here but for east wind events, it seems to do pretty well. 

The NAM is very good with wind in close range. Much better than the GFS and possibly better than the Euro (at least around here).

But it has to be < 24hrs from the event. Because its synoptic scale solutions are so unstable and the model is prone to convective feedback issues beyond +24hrs.

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48 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably... but he has said some things about a hostile situation in his personal life that raises concern when he drops off with no warning.     Particularly during a very stormy period when he always posts during active weather.     He has given us a heads up before when he was taking a break.     

Crap I do remember him talking about that.

Hope he’s alright.

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12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS is trending weaker with the blocking for the middle of next week... compare the 00Z run tonight (top) to the 00Z run from last night (bottom).    I think it might be too early as Matt has been saying.   Things are still too progressive.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7193600 (2).png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7193600 (3).png

Here is 12z EPS for that same frame plus full run. 

image.thumb.png.3bfe886e6fc119aece8f6f68fe725596.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1636459200-1636459200-1637755200-20-1.thumb.gif.5ce2bdb248178979bc10bc1d0e0247ee.gif

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...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Thurston...eastern Grays Harbor and southwestern Mason Counties
through 115 PM PST...

At 1224 PM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong 
thunderstorms 8 miles southwest of Matlock, or 13 miles north of 
Montesano, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around 
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is 
         possible. 

Locations impacted include...
Shelton, Montesano, Elma, McCleary, Matlock, Melbourne, Satsop,
Malone-Porter, Skokomish, Tahuya and Central Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. 

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

klgx_20211109_2026_BR_0.2.png

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When was the last time the coastal PNW was the tornado warning epicenter of the country? I can’t think of any examples.

It’s the opposite of what usually happens. :lol: 

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24 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Its my neighborhood FM.  Maybe I should go in after work and ask??

If u have the time, it doesn’t hurt to try. Fred could always do an IP trace on the account which entail would lead to more information about who he is. That might be an Invasion of privacy tho

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

When was the last time the coastal PNW was the tornado warning epicenter of the country? I can’t think of any examples.

It’s the opposite of what usually happens. :lol: 

It is tornado season here, If you want to call it that.  The one in Vancouver BC on the weekend was the first there since 1967. 

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1 minute ago, iFred said:

He sent me an email, he is fine. He forgot his password.

For folks with password problems, of which from the logs there are a a few of you, remember to update your saved Chrome/Firefox/Safari passwords when you change it. Remember that you sign in with the display name, not with your email.

Whew!   Thanks for the update.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, iFred said:

He sent me an email, he is fine. He forgot his password.

For folks with password problems, of which from the logs there are a a few of you, remember to update your saved Chrome/Firefox/Safari passwords when you change it. Remember that you sign in with the display name, not with your email.

Thanks for the update. I was going to go into Fred Meyers and ask about him.  Might have been a bit awkward since he is ok 😊 At least he knows this community cares, even people like me who don't post much.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I appreciate the concern guys but everything’s all good. Was trying to log on and I couldn’t the past few days and couldn’t sorry for the scare. 

Just glad to hear all is well.    I knew you would want to be posting during a big storm.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Just glad to hear all is well.    I knew you would want to be posting during a big storm.  👍

Yeah not a good time to be offline when there’s tornado warnings popping up. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I appreciate the concern guys but everything’s all good. Was trying to log on and I couldn’t the past few days and couldn’t sorry for the scare. 

D**n dude. Glad all is well! Welcome back 

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