PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. 

Could we have already reached the bottom?  

 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS was the first model to toy with a December 2013 blast. 

Yeah, and I’m not sure if even the CFS could f*ck with the December juggernaut at this point.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I'm curious to see if Euro run will have bleeding issues for wind like it did with snow. We may be left with only the NAM for higher resolution stuff. 

GFS shows gusty but nowhere near NAM

Euro tends to overdo wind gusts by something like 15-20%

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could we have already reached the bottom?  

 

Probably not. Phil and Jim know more about this than I, but it seems exceedingly unlikely. 

[BLI snowman]

Canadian looks kold.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Canadian looks kold.

we need a #Kold emoji @iFred

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous morning!

#droughtresumes

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

we need a #Kold emoji @iFred

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Sorry not emoji, reaction

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian is also slightly further south with the AR later this week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Growing potential for some cool air in about 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE reporting 1/16th of a mile visibility. Fog beginning to lift a little here on the river. 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Canadian is also slightly further south with the AR later this week. 

 

[RentonHill]

12z Euro winds increase a bit vs 06z (bottom)

[GHweatherChris]

20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Sorry not emoji, reaction

[Deweydog]

I think we should do this one…

[snow drift]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ASO ONI came in at -0.7C. Weekly ENSO 3.4 came in at -1.0C this week, up slightly from last week. Looks like ONI is expected to peak at -1.4C for the NDJ and DJF periods. 

3.4 warmed a touch compared to last week.

[Requiem]

Wett EURO run for parts of the central W. Valley especially!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Wett EURO run for parts of the central W. Valley especially!

Can't wait to see the maps. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pfft. 510 thickness line doesn’t even reach Reno

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Thank you for posting this, the linked article from Berkley Lab was an interesting read (I couldn't get to it until today when I was back in my office). Disseminating scientific research to the general public is difficult, and I don't think that OPB article was that great at it. 

"A recent study highlighted that there has been a 21% decline in the April 1 snowpack water storage in the western U.S. since the 1950s".  We have already seen the impacts of modest declines in snowpack for the West. Here are their range of projections for the Cascades and the Sierras:

  

I assume there will be a significant North to South gradient for both of those. 

You are incorrect.  "The research... starts with a literature review which distills several hundred scientific studies on snow loss; of those, they identify and analyze 18 studies that had quantitative snowpack projections for the western U.S." They did not choose whichever data fit their narrative, they evaluated research investigating snowpack in the Western US and of that research, 18 studies had quantitative projections of snowpack. 

If someone attempted to get research published as you suggested, they would be shredded during the review process and the research would go unpublished. The privilege of inaccurately characterizing info to support bogus claims is best left to posts on internet forums like yours. 

I can't believe they forgot to ask @snow_wizard his anecdotal observations on Cascade snowpack from CA, OR & WA!! Flawed research!

@Phil "yawned" at the research, so it must be BS. He is a snowpack expert, I remember, a couple years ago, him genuinely asking why the PNW would root for snow in the mountains...

 

 

I am politically fairly conservative, as anyone browsing the off topic boards will notice, and for quite a while was not sold on "climate change." But, it has been said the proof is in the pudding, and at this point, it's really impossible to say nothing is happening, it is pretty noticeable. I didn't read that article and think they were saying there would NEVER be snow pack in the Cascades in the 2070s, but it seems if we were to extrapolate out pretty logical that if current trends continue we would see years of increasing frequency where there is little if any Cascade snow pack. That doesn't mean it isn't going to snow in the Cascades, it means warm rain events will be more frequent, we will not have the opportunity to build as much of a snow pack and when we do it will melt out sooner. In warmer drier winters, which we will likely see more of, this will be even more pronounced. I think some people just do not like the idea of this happening, we can argue about what to do about it, but it is real regardless of that. 

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't wait to see the maps. 

Here's out to 120 hours or so.

[RentonHill]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

 

SCORE

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

 

We would all be happy with a December 08 rerun 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Here's out to 120 hours or so.

Wow. Had to double check that but hot dang

 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Could we have already reached the bottom?  

 

It's a weak event at best.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We would all be happy with a December 08 rerun 

Those first 3 days of it were about as good as one could hope for down this way. Scored on the initial blast with a few inches of snow going into it and then had a couple of sub-freezing highs. Anymore those are about as rare here as a good song on today's pop radio.

Obviously things were way better to the north, but then we had 2-25-19 which didn't do much up that way so it's all about location.

[FroYoBro]

Really gorgeous morning with completely clear skies right now. Nice to get a little sun before more wet weather returns. Enjoyable fall after our hellish summer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Wow. Had to double check that but hot dang

 

Wow. That's about 8" of rain here. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Could we have already reached the bottom?  

 

Not yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This fall has been very different than the past two. Especially now heading into November. 

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Thank you for posting this, the linked article from Berkley Lab was an interesting read (I couldn't get to it until today when I was back in my office). Disseminating scientific research to the general public is difficult, and I don't think that OPB article was that great at it. 

"A recent study highlighted that there has been a 21% decline in the April 1 snowpack water storage in the western U.S. since the 1950s".  We have already seen the impacts of modest declines in snowpack for the West. Here are their range of projections for the Cascades and the Sierras:

  

I assume there will be a significant North to South gradient for both of those. 

You are incorrect.  "The research... starts with a literature review which distills several hundred scientific studies on snow loss; of those, they identify and analyze 18 studies that had quantitative snowpack projections for the western U.S." They did not choose whichever data fit their narrative, they evaluated research investigating snowpack in the Western US and of that research, 18 studies had quantitative projections of snowpack. 

If someone attempted to get research published as you suggested, they would be shredded during the review process and the research would go unpublished. The privilege of inaccurately characterizing info to support bogus claims is best left to posts on internet forums like yours. 

I can't believe they forgot to ask @snow_wizard his anecdotal observations on Cascade snowpack from CA, OR & WA!! Flawed research!

@Phil "yawned" at the research, so it must be BS. He is a snowpack expert, I remember, a couple years ago, him genuinely asking why the PNW would root for snow in the mountains...

 

 

Cascade snowpack has shown no statistically significant trend since WWII. Rely on GCM projections for regional scale snowpack at your own peril. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Those first 3 days of it were about as good as one could hope for down this way. Scored on the initial blast with a few inches of snow going into it and then had a couple of sub-freezing highs. Anymore those are about as rare here as a good song on today's pop radio.

Obviously things were way better to the north, but then we had 2-25-19 which didn't do much up that way so it's all about location.

Yeah, let's push the goodies a little further south this time around. EUG pulling off a 27/10 on 12/16/08 is pretty impressive though. 

December 2009 had no snow at EUG, but was pretty legit too. 5 straight sub freezing highs early in the month including 30/7 on the 9th, and two more sub-freezing highs later in the month. It was their 6th or 7th coldest December on record. December 2008 was cold at EUG, but interestingly they have had 4 colder December's since then, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2017.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Where has @TacomaWaWx been?  I need my daily Tacoma rainfall totals. 

Strangely he went missing after the “missed connection” post!

Hopefully he will chime in soon 

[Blizzard777]

Almost feel like I should do yard work but not motivated with temperature of 45*

I'd rather be up there enjoying this view from Crystal !

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks fairly dynamic, at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

First winter storm watch for the Washington cascades and Olympics this season I believe. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow just beautiful at hurricane ridge today. The Olympics are such a gorgeous place.