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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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I realize it does not work this way... but if you take out the last 2 weeks of June the rest of the summer was very close to normal in Seattle.     So 83% of the summer (10 out of 12 weeks) averaged close to normal.     The last 2 weeks of June skewed the entire season to the warm side up here.   I realize it was different down south.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We’ve had just 1 freeze here back on Oct 12 and it was for like 30 mins and haven’t come close since.

  • Storm 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I know haha.  I think it's your love for warm weather and all the tropical pics you post.  It's embedded into my brain. 

Sorry about that.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well it wasn't.   The first half of June was unusually wet and chilly and then July and August were close to normal in the Seattle area.    I think this might be more related to you preferring drizzle and clouds and temps below 65 all summer which is not really climo here.  😀

🤔 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

🤔 

The first half of June was -1.0 and then July was +0.9 and August was +0.1 

But the last 2 weeks of June averaged +9.5

 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Final mow for the yard…hopefully. Was very interesting to have a yellow jacket buzzing around…

I hit freezing back on October 12th, but haven't been below 36 since.
Most of the trees around here dropped their leaves very rapidly, which in a way is a blessing for clean-up at least.

253691411_10225387522468650_4431669765061545796_n.jpg

253880984_10225387522148642_3849027584675658852_n.jpg

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Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Final mow for the yard…hopefully. Was very interesting to have a yellow jacket buzzing around…

I hit freezing back on October 12th, but haven't been below 36 since.
Most of the trees around here dropped their leaves very rapidly, which in a way is a blessing for clean-up at least.

253691411_10225387522468650_4431669765061545796_n.jpg

253880984_10225387522148642_3849027584675658852_n.jpg

All set for accumulating snow!    Short grass in the winter is a must. 👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Our yard is a bit of a mud pit right now. 18” of rain since mid September. About 6” above average for that span. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I realize it does not work this way... but if you take out the last 2 weeks of June the rest of the summer was very close to normal in Seattle.     So 83% of the summer (10 out of 12 weeks) averaged close to normal.     The last 2 weeks of June skewed the entire season to the warm side up here.   I realize it was different down south.

Front Ranger is that you??

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think Jim mentioned the dead pine needles the other day. We have massive amounts of fir needles on the ground like never seen before.  Mossman doesn't have any. I don't think he hit 100 degrees either.

I hit 103 on the hottest day, that was the only triple digit day I had. 

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great song, November rain. Saw it live 4 years ago. Always impressive to see a rock legend like axle rose play a piano like he can. 

You see it at the Gorge?  I was there with my son for his birthday.  Amazing show.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The last few frames are interesting.

I noticed that AS WELL. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Great song, November rain. Saw it live 4 years ago. Always impressive to see a rock legend like axle rose play a piano like he can. 

Great song! I got the cover of Appetite for Destruction tattooed on my upper arm when I was 18. I'm 37 now and still no regrets, but we'll see in another 10 years. 🤨

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Hmmmm. CFS monthlies look sort of like 2011-12. 

 

December: Normal temps (Some below normal northern oregon, southern washington), below average precip. 

January: Below normal temps Washington, northern Oregon, average temps about 75% of Oregon. Above average precip.

February: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

March: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

April: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

May: Below normal temps, normal precip.

June: Normal temps, normal precip. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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ICON is pretty intense for W. Washington. 

  • Storm 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm. CFS monthlies look sort of like 2011-12. 

 

December: Normal temps (Some below normal northern oregon, southern washington), below average precip. 

January: Below normal temps Washington, northern Oregon, average temps about 75% of Oregon. Above average precip.

February: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

March: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

April: Below normal temps, above average precip. 

May: Below normal temps, normal precip.

June: Normal temps, normal precip. 

La Nina?

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Wide area of 2"+ precip. 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_8.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I hit 103 on the hottest day, that was the only triple digit day I had. 

Only hit 96F here and all the trees (including fir) seem to be doing okay still. Especially the fruit trees (not that they should have a problem with heat) which it was the best year we've ever had. This last week I picked 300+ pounds of apples from a single tree and a couple weeks ago got more than 200 pounds of pears from a single tree.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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17 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And by the end of round 2...

index (5).png

GFS is just a joke.    That won't happen.   

Here is the ECMWF through the exact same time:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7053200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Bonovox said:

Great song! I got the cover of Appetite for Destruction tattooed on my upper arm when I was 18. I'm 37 now and still no regrets, but we'll see in another 10 years. 🤨

For me there was a long wait between the death of John Bonham and the arrival of GnR. At least in terms of guitar based rock that I listened to at hearing damaging volume. No resulting tats though. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is just a joke.    That won't happen.   

Here is the ECMWF through the exact same time:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7053200.png

This looks much better to me. We tend to get water finding its way into the south and west sides of the house during unrelenting AR events. I *think* we have found and fixed the sources of these problems, but every prolonged rain event makes me nervous that there are more moles to be whacked. 

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

This looks much better to me. We tend to get water finding its way into the south and west sides of the house during unrelenting AR events. I *think* we have found and fixed the sources of these problems, but every prolonged rain event makes me nervous that there are more moles to be whacked. 

Let’s do a french drain!  I love digging up other people’s yards.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Which model performed better for the late October AR?

Don't remember... but that is basically for just the next 5 days.   The pattern is pretty well set and there is no way its going to rain more than half a foot in Seattle.     I do remember a couple GFS runs that showed biblical flooding in Seattle and Tacoma last time just a few days out.    Obviously that did not happen.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Sounds good. I will provide commemorative shovels as a keepsake. 

I'll bring over some beers and bud then make smart-a$$ comments while subsequently falling on my own a$$ trying to dig.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'll bring over some beers and bud then make smart-a** comments while subsequently falling on my own a$$ trying to dig.

Bring the beers and bud and we can figure out the details. 

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