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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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The ECMWF gets decently chilly the second half of the run with lows in the low to mid 30s away from the big cities, and highs in the 40s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6z gives us a first taste widespread cold air a week from today with lows at or near freezing and highs barely breaking 40. Just gotta get through this very wet stretch. And then "some" snow as well.

All of this inside 10 days. Fun times with the models ahead.  🤣

 

 

sn10_acc.us_state_wa.png

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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GFS Snowfall Totals.png

GFS fucking north south gradient.png

This location sucks.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Eugene with over an inch and a half of rain, seems like they actually overachieved for once.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 6z GFS spits out a high of 39 for SEA on one day.  Might be the first warning shot coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 hours ago, Deweydog said:

image.gif.fb4d2b9f6264de2da4dfe1c8908bdf7e.gif

Something we can all agree on....I hope.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Woke up with just 0.03" of rain, now up to almost 1/2" in the last half hour.  For a warm front, this rain is very heavy, with a peak rate of 1.42/hour.

Maybe the GFS will end up being right.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe the GFS will end up being right.

ECMWF and GFS are now in perfect agreement for Seattle through the weekend.   

GFS shows 2.44 inches and the ECMWF shows 2.46 inches at SEA.      GFS is running too dry now.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Seems like the first main push of rain set up a little further south than expected. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eugene with over an inch and a half of rain, seems like they actually overachieved for once.

1.70" total here. Solid over-achiever. I may actually stop complaining about drought and under-performing storms. For a few minutes, anyway.

Seems like warm fronts over-perform here more often than cold fronts.

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I was getting worried when it didn’t start raining until 930p, but we had 0.85” before midnight and are over 1.5” since then. Nearing 6.5” on the month. Band of moderate to heavy rain is training over us right now. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just picked up 0.61” in an hour. 2.09” since midnight now, we should hit 7”

on the month before this round ends. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's been almost 9 years since our last blizzard warning. 

Let's plan on resetting that counter come December.

Image

I wonder if that's just some sort of default number. I don't think there's any reason SEA NWS should have issued a blizzard warning on Dec 16/17, 2012 and it seems like there's way too many 32?? values out there for all those offices to have had blizzards only in 2012.

It's interesting because I would think blizzard conditions are pretty common in the Cascades, but I guess because no one lives up there they'll only issue WSW.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 5.8"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5"

2021-22: 0"

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Low of 46 this morning storm total is 0.19” since yesterday evening. Raining pretty decently now. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS back to showing crazy rainfall totals by early next week...

index (10).png

Primarily because it shows about 4 or 5 inches of rain on Monday alone.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Primarily because it shows about 4 or 5 inches of rain on Monday alone.  

It’s not like we need another AR aiming right at us or anything. This run takes a direct aim at central sound with the heavy stuff then slowly sink south. And I mean very slowly. 
 

the 4 to 5 fall in a short period of time.

 

 

floop-gfs-2021111112.qpf_acc.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2021111112.prateptype_cat.us_state_wa.gif

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We ended up with 3.06” in 12 hours. 7.09” on the month.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3.20” so far this month here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have back to back days with +1” of rainfall. Maybe another one on Monday. We are definitely going to be above normal soon. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Drought conditions continue to improve in Washington too particularly on the east side of the state. 

80E1A6C8-2CD3-4B2B-A340-CDCBF12C602E.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

3.20” so far this month here. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have back to back days with +1” of rainfall. Maybe another one on Monday. 

SEA’s taking aim at breaking daily record today. Almost 2” is expected.  1.48” is record.

Monday the 15th is 1.09”. That one is most likely going to get shatter if future model runs is anything like the 12z.

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA’s taking aim at breaking daily record today. Almost 2” is expected.  1.48” is record.

Monday the 15th is 1.09”. That one is most likely going to get shatter if future model runs is anything like the 12z.

Very wet times indeed. Hopefully things lean towards the drier side the second half of the month…but in November the “drier side” is still fairly damp. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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11 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s not like we need another AR aiming right at us or anything. This run takes a direct aim at central sound with the heavy stuff then slowly sink south. And I mean very slowly. 
 

the 4 to 5 fall in a short period of time.

floop-gfs-2021111112.qpf_acc.us_state_wa.gif

floop-gfs-2021111112.prateptype_cat.us_state_wa.gif

If true, that's not nearly enough time between two excessive rain events. It's going to get interesting out here. If anyone is looking for donations, I am willing to donate our rain to OR, E WA or CA.

Currently at 5.13" on the month, let's see where we're at by next Tuesday... which will only be halfway through the month!

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8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Meh, not even up to .5" of rain here today.

This AR is certainly no December 2019 or October 2003. On par with stuff we see here several times a year. We have had a decent amount of rain in the past couple weeks though…It’s more about the amount of rain we’ve gotten the past few weeks already. Not the wettest we’ve seen but pretty wet still. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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