PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TacomaWaWx]

Today wasn’t terribly exciting but we’ve picked up 0.50” so far…just about to go over 3” of rain on the month. We’re probably going to be at average rainfall for the month of November by mid month. 

[Blizzard777]

.48 for the day and 3.00 for the month

Currently under another band of rain and 45*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't really see things coming together yet in terms of cold... I need to see something on the EPS.  The GFS has been wildly inconsistent and always seems to lean towards extreme amplification in the long range.    Here is the 12Z EPS... there is a transitory cold shot next week but its not a pattern change.    Matt and Phil say December.   

 

A lot of these model runs are showing fairly cool patterns, a shot of cool air with ridging moving in afterward, its about the most common way we get cold anomalies in the cold season. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Today wasn’t terribly exciting but we’ve picked up 0.50” so far…just about to go over 3” of rain on the month. We’re probably going to be at average rainfall for the month of November by mid month. 

I am wondering if we might get into a drier pattern for the week of Thanksgiving.     Seems like it would be overdue at that point... but maybe this is just going to be a much wetter than normal November which would be in line with a Nina.

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

More great analogs today.  Even 1978 showed up today which was one of the coldest / blockiest winters on record for the United States.  Seeing 1990 a lot which isn't surprising since it had the persistent area of above normal heights near the Date Line that we've been seeing this season.

Mid November 1978 was pretty different from the coming pattern.

[MV_snow]

What’s funny as a lurker here is that everybody’s interactions have improved since Jesse was banned. Like there haven’t even been any flamewars between Tim and Phil recently. I remember days where I’d refresh and have 10 unread pages and it would just be repetitive arguments. None of that since Jesse left.

[Kolk1604]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I haven't really seen the GFS ensembles for a while, but I am more inclined to believe runs like the 18z that kind of keep the storm parade going. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am wondering if we might get into a drier pattern for the week of Thanksgiving.     Seems like it would be overdue at that point... but maybe this is just going to be a much wetter than normal November which would be in line with a Nina.

We will see doesn’t seem like any sustained dry pattern in sight the next 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see doesn’t seem like any sustained dry pattern in sight the next 10 days. 

Seems like the models have teased it for a while, but it disappears once the time frame moves up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Thanks! Seems to confirm my hunch. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We will see doesn’t seem like any sustained dry pattern in sight the next 10 days. 

Definitely not... I think the overall model trends have been more towards extending this wet pattern rather than towards any meaningful blocking.  

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely not... I think the overall model trends have been more towards extending this wet pattern rather than towards any meaningful blocking.  

It’s rained almost everyday here since late September. We did have a 5 day stretch in mid October where it didn’t rain but outside of that it’s just been 1 or 2 day breaks. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol they do know about my weather geekness at my work so they probably would’ve known it was me. I’m just glad I was able to log in before I was a missing persons case and on the back of a milk carton! 
this place is a very cool place we are family here. 

Of course, if you were at work when the "search party" showed up it would have been a dead giveaway...looking for you while constantly checking their phone for the latest radar loop and muttering the countdown to the next model run like "Rain Man" doing the countdown to Judge Wapner.

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

This would be a bit much. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Excuse my ignorance, I didn’t post the full 18z run. It only has 10 inches of rain 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Of course, if you were at work when the "search party" showed up it would have been a dead giveaway...looking for you while constantly checking their phone for the latest radar loop and muttering the countdown to the next model run like "Rain Man" doing the countdown to Judge Wapner.

Search Party was a pretty funny show. This definitely could have played out similarly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Excuse my ignorance, I didn’t post the full 18z run. It only has 10 inches of rain 

Only 6-7" here. How am I going to feed my family?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I told my wife about the missing persons case this morning. She said we were a bunch of dorks, and she was sure the guy was fine. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I told my wife about the missing persons case this morning. She said we were a bunch of dorks, and she was sure the guy was fine. 

I seem to remember some guy about 10 years ago who faked his death here for some reason.  He was summarily banned and chastised by the members here.  But for the life of me, I don't remember his name.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I seem to remember some guy about 10 years ago who faked his death here for some reason.  He was summarily banned and chastised by the members here.  But for the life of me, I don't remember his name.

Lmfao why would you do that

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I seem to remember some guy about 10 years ago who faked his death here for some reason.  He was summarily banned and chastised by the members here.  But for the life of me, I don't remember his name.

KM

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Models flip flop like a seasoned politician.  Very entertaining watching everyone latch on to the latest model as gospel though.

 

I need some popcorn.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I told my wife about the missing persons case this morning. She said we were a bunch of dorks, and she was sure the guy was fine. 

Lol I was reading the comments on here this morning trying to log in and I was like man I better get on here quick .

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I was reading the comments on here this morning trying to log in and I was like man I better get on here quick .

Haha I bet. If Tim ever stops posting we're sending out the search party. 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  With the background state we have that would be a huge bust.

I never said it was a win, just that I would be happy. I grew up with kold winters that you had to put a hoodie on to be warm.

[yellowstone]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

First of all, you don’t need to understand my mindset. I don’t have to defend it to anybody. I don’t understand a lot of your mindsets either. I will never change your mind, and you will never change mine. Some people want warm and sunny. Some want windstorms. Some brutal cold. As they say, variety is the spice of life.

Secondly, you are assuming that under-performing at PDX is 2”. What if it’s 1”? What if it’s .5” When do you give me permission to be disappointed?

I would never root for damage to life, property, or nature. I just want it to consistently rain a sh*tload. I am tired of the models overpromising and underdelivering. Maybe I should speak at the next weather forecasting conference? 

 

I…didn’t ask you to defend your mindset?? I shared my own confusion as to why someone (and of course you’re not the only one) would choose to look at things this way.  I offered a suggestion as to how looking at it another way might reduce your frustration and increase your satisfaction with something you have no control over. Whether you want to take that (completely unsolicited advice, grant you) is 100% up to you. 

You don’t need my permission to be disappointed, you seem to be doing just fine with that on your own.  

No offense was intended. 

[Timmy Supercell]

So it has a name (Doherty Slide), this is what we took but from the opposite way going up the rim from the basin.

In snowy/icy conditions I can't imagine taking it.
There are no guard rails not to mention cell service for a good 100+ miles!

 

[MossMan]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I told my wife about the missing persons case this morning. She said we were a bunch of dorks, and she was sure the guy was fine. 

I bet my wife will say the same thing tonight when she gets home and I tell her about our missing forum member!  

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

So it has a name (Doherty Slide), this is what we took but from the opposite way going up the rim from the basin.

In snowy/icy conditions I can't imagine taking it.
There are no guard rails not to mention cell service for a good 100+ miles!

 

Could be worse…

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Nice crisp evening here.  39 degrees with a moderate breeze.  

The snow is coming!!!!!  Everywhere except for Milwaukie, Oregon City, and Gladstone, Tualatin, Tigard, Wilsonville........maybe West Linn, Canby, Mulino, parts of Clackamas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

So a January 1950 redux wouldn't be better in your opinion?  You do seem to have something against 150 blocking with very cold air.

Patterns that are in the realm of possibility are high on my list. Of course 33 degree rain is not my favorite pattern. For the record I would take December 2009 over the pattern the long range GFS shows. 

[luminen]

25 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

KM

The dreaded Kevin Martin? 

Just had a quick snow/wind shower blow through here, ending in some light drizzle, which was totally unforecast. Supposed to snow around midnight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  With the background state we have that would be a huge bust.

Bruh, it hasn't snowed here at all for 2 straight winters and we've had only 4 days that had sub-40F highs and zero sub-freezing highs since Jan 2017.

I don't feel like you grasp how very different it is down here and how rapidly it's warming and drying in this location. Seeing snowflakes is an extreme rarity.

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but now the forum is lacking a qualified villain.

If it came down to a vote, I'd vote for him to come back...on mod preview to start.

Don't know if he could handle that, though.

Based on the reactions to this post, would be a close vote!

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

It has been noticeably more tranquil since he left. I would hope that he's been reading the forum often enough the last two months to notice the difference. The tone has generally improved. 

When do we start getting inundated with meteorologists wanting to share their knowledge here?

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Based on the reactions to this post, would be a close vote!

Just tied it up

[TheNewCulverJosh]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Based on the reactions to this post, would be a close vote!

I can be a good villain.  

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I can be a good villain.  

Not the villain we wanted…but the villain we deserved. 
 

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

When do we start getting inundated with meteorologists wanting to share their knowledge here?

Nothing was said about it being perfect....just.....*improved*

 

You take an old Ford Pinto and change the oil and throw a fresh coat of paint on it it's still an old Ford Pinto. 

[MossMan]

 

54/41 on the day. Currently 42.

.54” on the day, 5.06” for the month, 47.25” for the year.