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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s not happening.

As long as I’m running the place, he is not coming back. The same goes with @Link.

There are two aspects to this, one is that I have to be at the end of all of the abuse reports. I don’t have the time nor the energy to deal with someone who thinks that their tenure with the community gives them enough leeway to get a 13th chance at getting unbanned. The other is that it’s more than “oh they had some good views” or “their anger was justified”, it’s that I don’t like having people send me repeated DMs about how they’re the victim when the deleted forum post says otherwise.

So I really don’t care about how everyone feels about it. I just don’t want to deal with it anymore.

I'm more of a fair weather ie; snowy.....poster.  What was the last straw with Jesse?

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I'm going for a 70% to 80% chance of a meaningful cold snap within the next 6 weeks.  That's simply based on our recent observed weather, the base state we're in, and the way the models are progressing.  No doubt the changes being shown over the GOA are very significant.  Should be getting considerably less wet after the AR later this week.

By meaningful cold snap I mean highs at least dropping into the mid to upper 30s.  It's highly possible we could see something way more colder than that though.  This hyperactive, wet, windy, stormy pattern often comes before the good stuff.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s not happening.

As long as I’m running the place, he is not coming back. The same goes with @Link.

There are two aspects to this, one is that I have to be at the end of all of the abuse reports. I don’t have the time nor the energy to deal with someone who thinks that their tenure with the community gives them enough leeway to get a 13th chance at getting unbanned. The other is that it’s more than “oh they had some good views” or “their anger was justified”, it’s that I don’t like having people send me repeated DMs about how they’re the victim when the deleted forum post says otherwise.

So I really don’t care about how everyone feels about it. I just don’t want to deal with it anymore.

So the issue is more about those that get their feelings hurt too easily and feel the need to report said feelings about something repeatedly and not as much about the individuals that are banned.

Looks like a bunch on here need to grow a pair and/or learn how to use the ignore feature.

42° currently, gotta keep it relevant. 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going for a 70% to 80% chance of a meaningful cold snap within the next 6 weeks.  That's simply based on our recent observed weather, the base state we're in, and the way the models are progressing.  No doubt the changes being shown over the GOA are very significant.  Should be getting considerably less wet after the AR later this week.

By meaningful cold snap I mean highs at least dropping into the mid to upper 30s.  It's highly possible we could see something way more colder than that though.  This hyperactive, wet, windy, stormy pattern often comes before the good stuff.

6 weeks takes us almost to Christmas.   I think your odds might be too low for the timeframe! 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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11 minutes ago, iFred said:

It’s not happening.

As long as I’m running the place, he is not coming back. The same goes with @Link.

There are two aspects to this, one is that I have to be at the end of all of the abuse reports. I don’t have the time nor the energy to deal with someone who thinks that their tenure with the community gives them enough leeway to get a 13th chance at getting unbanned. The other is that it’s more than “oh they had some good views” or “their anger was justified”, it’s that I don’t like having people send me repeated DMs about how they’re the victim when the deleted forum post says otherwise.

So I really don’t care about how everyone feels about it. I just don’t want to deal with it anymore.

All fair. It's not a huge deal to me either way, but I see why it's a bigger one to you.

A forum for the end of the world.

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9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So the issue is more about those that get their feelings hurt too easily and feel the need to report said feelings about something repeatedly and not as much about the individuals that are banned.

Looks like a bunch on here need to grow a pair and/or learn how to use the ignore feature.

42° currently, gotta keep it relevant. 

Exactly.  

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going for a 70% to 80% chance of a meaningful cold snap within the next 6 weeks.  That's simply based on our recent observed weather, the base state we're in, and the way the models are progressing.  No doubt the changes being shown over the GOA are very significant.  Should be getting considerably less wet after the AR later this week.

By meaningful cold snap I mean highs at least dropping into the mid to upper 30s.  It's highly possible we could see something way more colder than that though.  This hyperactive, wet, windy, stormy pattern often comes before the good stuff.

Six weeks from today is December 21st. If we have made it that long without a minor cold snap I think this place will be despondent. I could be wrong, but climo would probably be at least 50/50 we see that by December 21st. Even November 2019 had a stretch in the Willamette Valley that would meet that criteria. So what I'm saying is, you will probably be right, but its not exactly a gutsy call. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going for a 70% to 80% chance of a meaningful cold snap within the next 6 weeks.  That's simply based on our recent observed weather, the base state we're in, and the way the models are progressing.  No doubt the changes being shown over the GOA are very significant.  Should be getting considerably less wet after the AR later this week.

By meaningful cold snap I mean highs at least dropping into the mid to upper 30s.  It's highly possible we could see something way more colder than that though.  This hyperactive, wet, windy, stormy pattern often comes before the good stuff.

With lows in the teens to mid 20s. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Still 42°.

Has Jesse ever affected anyone on this forums life personally, as in made it tough for you to get through your day to day personal life?

Honest question. 

He's definitely triggered me, which is partially on him, and probably partially on me, but I think overall the tone he set made me more aggressive towards other members when I had disagreements with them. The thing that irked me about him, was even when we agreed on something he would still try to find a way to insult me. He would act like it was in jest, but it never felt that way. I don't think I ever messaged Fred about him, that I can remember at least. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Shifting north....

Will it ever rain again? ;)

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He's definitely triggered me, which is partially on him, and probably partially on me, but I think overall the tone he set made me more aggressive towards other members when I had disagreements with them. The thing that irked me about him, was even when we agreed on something he would still try to find a way to insult me. He would act like it was in jest, but it never felt that way. I don't think I ever messaged Fred about him, that I can remember at least. 

I just have never understood the whole internet/forums can drag me down thing, if you haven't messaged Fred about him then, that's great.

Also, I see parents talk about how their teenagers get depressed from negative reactions they get from Tik Tok, it's like WTF, why they using Tik Tok then.  For real, if it affects you negatively don't do it, if you do it don't get offended.

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I told my wife about the missing persons case this morning. She said we were a bunch of dorks, and she was sure the guy was fine. 

She was right on both counts.  My wife didn't seem to understand the situation and muttered something about stalkers and sharing too much info on line 😀

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2 hours ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I seem to remember some guy about 10 years ago who faked his death here for some reason.  He was summarily banned and chastised by the members here.  But for the life of me, I don't remember his name.

I can’t decide which is worse… faking your own death on a weather forum or faking your own conference call?

I could go for some fake cold though!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I can’t decide which is worse… faking your own death on a weather forum or faking your own conference call?

I could go for some fake cold though!

What about faking your own death while on a fake conference call? That is quite the conundrum.

00z ECMWF 1 hour 39 minutes

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  With the background state we have that would be a huge bust.

A bust is still a very real possibility in the lower elevations under this ENSO/QBO configuration.

I’m also puzzled as to why the subtropical middle stratosphere is so d**n warm right now. It’s almost like some aerosols got up there somehow. All else being equal this would strengthen the thermal winds and tilt the odds toward a +NAM outcome (esp second half of winter).

It’s just one of many variables, so not set in stone, but it’s worth watching. 

8F6DA484-C189-4F94-BABF-8237E15ABF40.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

People were repeatedly harassed, not innocuous “why do you hate cold”, but more along the lines of “you’re a ******* idiot go kill yourself you stupid sack of before I ******* do it for you” followed by “I’m really sorry I didn’t mean it.

Sure, screenshots can be faked and some people really had it in for him, but similar messages from multiple people over a couple years?

Then I get to deal with death threats from a few other people which have to be turned over to State Patrol. This wasn’t Jesse but from another account a few weeks after he was banned.

So for @GHweatherChris, @Mapsysconand @MR.SNOWMIZER, this wasn’t just me being unreasonable or being inconsistent. Lines were drawn, they were repeatedly crossed without consequence. A red line was drawn and communicated, I was ignored, and it was crossed again.

If you folks have serious problems with this that call into question if this is a community you can trust or a forum you can be on, feel free to grill me over a DM.

Did what you said in your first paragraph really happen live on the forum?  Definitely don't remember seeing stuff like that.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

People were repeatedly harassed, not innocuous “why do you hate cold”, but more along the lines of “you’re a ******* idiot go kill yourself you stupid sack of before I ******* do it for you” followed by “I’m really sorry I didn’t mean it.

Sure, screenshots can be faked and some people really had it in for him, but similar messages from multiple people over a couple years?

Then I get to deal with death threats from a few other people which have to be turned over to State Patrol. This wasn’t Jesse but from another account a few weeks after he was banned.

So for @GHweatherChris, @Mapsysconand @MR.SNOWMIZER, this wasn’t just me being unreasonable or being inconsistent. Lines were drawn, they were repeatedly crossed without consequence. A red line was drawn and communicated, I was ignored, and it was crossed again.

If you folks have serious problems with this that call into question if this is a community you can trust or a forum you can be on, feel free to grill me over a DM.

I would say that sounds shocking but then I do have to remind myself that both dabears and Kevin Martin have had multiple accounts here.

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2 hours ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I seem to remember some guy about 10 years ago who faked his death here for some reason.  He was summarily banned and chastised by the members here.  But for the life of me, I don't remember his name.

NadoChaser? Or something like that. IIRC he made a bunch of weird posts before pulling the stunt, which raised suspicions.

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1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I can be a good villain.  

You’re too dense to be a good villain.

I vote Andrew. He likes zonal flow.

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

People were repeatedly harassed, not innocuous “why do you hate cold”, but more along the lines of “you’re a ******* idiot go kill yourself you stupid sack of before I ******* do it for you” followed by “I’m really sorry I didn’t mean it.

Sure, screenshots can be faked and some people really had it in for him, but similar messages from multiple people over a couple years?

Then I get to deal with death threats from a few other people which have to be turned over to State Patrol. This wasn’t Jesse but from another account a few weeks after he was banned.

So for @GHweatherChris, @Mapsysconand @MR.SNOWMIZER, this wasn’t just me being unreasonable or being inconsistent. Lines were drawn, they were repeatedly crossed without consequence. A red line was drawn and communicated, I was ignored, and it was crossed again.

If you folks have serious problems with this that call into question if this is a community you can trust or a forum you can be on, feel free to grill me over a DM.

I know I don't post much, but I"m here all the time from September through March or so.  That said, I'm grateful you take meaningful measures to ensure this board remains my to go place.  There's a lot of talent here and I appreciate all of it.  Although I can read the models myself, I appreciate the input of others.  

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