PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

A lot colder at the surface than one would think looking at that though.  We also need to keep in mind November is the month we want to see this type of thing.

At any rate the significant shot of chilly air early next week will feel awesome.

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

My (least) favorite Bellingham weather memory was getting decent snow (2010? 2011?)  in the evening and being convinced WWU classes would be cancelled so we went bar hopping in the snow all night. Woke up with a headache, rain had melted all the snow, and class started in 30 minutes.

2.25” on the day, here’s to a wetter tomorrow! 

Ha I might have been there for that. Drove a 96 Camry from Hillsboro to Bellingham (long story) and it started snowing around Seattle and was absolute shiteshow from Everett to Bellingham. Don’t know how I didn’t lose it those last 40 miles in the blowing snow. Think I was lucky enough to just catch the beginning of it. Didn’t even try to make it up the hill by the Haggen when I got to Bellingham. My now wife had to come pick me up in her awd CRV to get to her apartment next to campus 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Exactly.  People will remember the heavy rain and wind and not even realize how warm it is.  Or they just don't go outside at all.

It never even got all that warm here on this round.  850s are already falling and it only made 52 today.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

11 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

My (least) favorite Bellingham weather memory was getting decent snow (2010? 2011?)  in the evening and being convinced WWU classes would be cancelled so we went bar hopping in the snow all night. Woke up with a headache, rain had melted all the snow, and class started in 30 minutes.

2.25” on the day, here’s to a wetter tomorrow! 

I wonder if that was the time the forecast was for major snow for all of Washington.  The NAM said the storm would go north of us, bringing warm air and rain.  The NAM was right and led the way.  Heavy snow turned to heavy rain. 

The opposite happened in December 1996.  Storms were originally forecasted to go north and bring warmer air, but a day or 2 before they changed the forecast to snow. Eventually the pineapple express did happen after very heavy snow.  Bellingham was at a standstill for awhile.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Going to be a double-digit positive temp departure for here. Going back through ACIS to find our last double-digit negative temp departure in the Nov-Feb timeframe here.

Looks like the last double digit negative temp departure we had was Nov 9, 2020, a 46/24 day. That 24F was the 2nd coldest temp of last fall-winter here, the coldest day was a 23F reading on October 26, 2020. We have had 21 days with double-digit positive temp departures since Nov 9, 2020.

Anybody had it worse since?

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Norovirus outbreak?

People so easily forget what happened in 2008.  I remember people were ready to give up on the entire winter in November.

I think you've made it pretty obvious you think December is going to rock for us this winter.  I can't imagine you stating that so often if you weren't serious.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It never even got all that warm here on this round.  850s are already falling and it only made 52 today.

ECMWF shows it will be warmer tomorrow... and around 60 on Sunday.

[snow_wizard]

It's raining pitchforks here again.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

My (least) favorite Bellingham weather memory was getting decent snow (2010? 2011?)  in the evening and being convinced WWU classes would be cancelled so we went bar hopping in the snow all night. Woke up with a headache, rain had melted all the snow, and class started in 30 minutes.

2.25” on the day, here’s to a wetter tomorrow! 

Did you end up attending? I can’t empathize since I never get hangovers, but I probably would’ve skipped.

[GHweatherChris]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I wouldn't say that.    It usually does quite well with c-zone snow.   Terrain bleeding is not really an issue with c-zones.  

It didn't do well this past weekend for anyone in the lowlands, CZ or not.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows it will be warmer tomorrow... and around 60 on Sunday.

We'll see about tomorrow.  I do think Sunday will be pretty warm.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

It didn't do well this past weekend for anyone in the lowlands, CZ or not.

So what?   There was no c-zone.   It does well with c-zones.    

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

It didn't do well this past weekend for anyone in the lowlands, CZ or not.

It was just obvious all along last weekend was only going to have a mix in the lowlands with 925mb temps never going below zero.  The ECMWF was good at calling the details on stuff like that, but it blew it on the snowfall maps.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People so easily forget what happened in 2008.  I remember people were ready to give up on the entire winter in November.

I think you've made it pretty obvious you think December is going to rock for us this winter.  I can't imagine you stating that so often if you weren't serious.

I am serious. And my name is Shirley.

Anything remotely interesting from a cold perspective this month would erode that vibe.

And then of course I could be wildly wrong…

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

So what?   There was no c-zone.   It does well with c-zones.    

It should be better than that, not just good at one thing.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Going to be a double-digit positive temp departure for here. Going back through ACIS to find our last double-digit negative temp departure in the Nov-Feb timeframe here.

Same boat brother.

Warming into mid-60s at 230AM w/ T-storms approaching. In mid-November.

Heat misers’ wet dream.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let's see how many double-digit positive temp departures we will get before our next negative double-digit temp departure. We are at 22 after today.

[RentonHill]

34 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And you didn't invite me to your Twisp resort? Whiskey or nothing! Come on partner! 

This is a work trip…everyone (almost) is invited when it’s time for the forum potluck 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

This is a work trip…everyone (almost) is invited when it’s time for the forum potluck 

You're forgiven! 

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

This is a work trip…everyone (almost) is invited when it’s time for the forum potluck 

I will observe from home.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I will observe from home.

That’s kind of creepy I’d prob prefer you observe in person tbh 

[Gradient Keeper]

After rising quickly 59.4 earlier now it is down to 54.6 as the heavy subtropical rains have waned for now.

[GHweatherChris]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

That’s kind of creepy I’d prob prefer you observe in person tbh 

Ok. I will try to be there!  Didn't think I would be invited. 

[Deweydog]

Hasn’t been a particularly wet night here.

[RentonHill]

Second half of EPS run so far

 

[NWbyNW]

43 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

My (least) favorite Bellingham weather memory was getting decent snow (2010? 2011?)  in the evening and being convinced WWU classes would be cancelled so we went bar hopping in the snow all night. Woke up with a headache, rain had melted all the snow, and class started in 30 minutes.

2.25” on the day, here’s to a wetter tomorrow! 

I remember that too.  I was there during the same time.  I was so upset no classes got cancelled.  I didn't do any bar hopping, as I was studiously in my studio keeping warm. ;D  lol

[Cloud]

It's coming down in sheets again and temps hasn't moved in a while. Rain. 55. 

[Skagit Weather]

57F and raining healthily outside. 0.66" on the day and just passed 3" on the month.

[Gradient Keeper]

11:46 PM Radar Update

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Second half of EPS run so far

 

Baby steps. Some hints of the ridge axis trying to develop further west offshore.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Baby steps. Some hints of the ridge axis trying to develop further west offshore.

Like watching an old diesel trying to kick to life 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

58 degrees as we near midnight. The only other time I remember it being this warm at night in November was in 2015, we were at 62 at midnight and by 3am it was snowing. Ended up with 2” by daybreak. Won’t see a repeat tonight. 

[westiztehbest]

Received first dusting of snow of the fall this morning.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting aside concerning the pattern the ECMWF /EPS is showing at day 10.  On the CPC analogs 2008 comes up in the top 10 two times.  The GFS shows pretty much the same thing at that time.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, westiztehbest said:

Received first dusting of snow of the fall this morning.

Outstanding! Here we go!

6z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, iFred said:

You live in a climate where the frequency of snow and cold air exceed Vancouver BC, nearly 12° north of you. You live in a climate that has enough events where you have to categorize them as “run of the mill” HECS.

You feel him the same way a multimillionaire Senator feels “poverty” with their thanksgiving gospel mission soup kitchen photo shoot.

Lol. We’ve seen 10-12” of snow in the last 33 months. And just had three consecutive 70+ days. After a summer with 50+ days above 90°F.

You guys have done much better in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Like watching an old diesel trying to kick to life 

In actuality this month is doing exactly what we want it to.   We will get the little cold snap next week to tide us over until the good stuff comes.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lol. We’ve seen 10-12” of snow in the last 33 months. And just had three consecutive 70+ days.

You guys have done much better in recent years.

 

That is pretty astonishing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have had nice November s followed by good winters. We’ve been torching for almost a month now, maybe it will eventually flip.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is pretty astonishing.

It’s another one of those down-cycles. Lame winters tend to come bunches of 3-4 out of 5 here.

Will probably flip in couple of years.