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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you serious?  It dropped to 40 here last night.  I pray for your sake that this N to S gradient thing will go away as the season progresses.  I think the blocking coming up will be epic enough to get the entire NW cold.

Yup, we are an absolute shitt location for interesting weather. Unless one likes to break heat and fire weather records.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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58 and cloudy. 🤢 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like a good slug of moisture coming in a bit further south in Gray's Harbor County.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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As TWL would say. Nice summer evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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gfs_T2ma_namer_65.thumb.png.c5f2d5094a38bf9af616e787d2780d3f.png

La... Niña? 🤔

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

We’ve been in a narrow band of rain for hours now.

36582105-8368-4F48-9942-69C16EB3151F.png

Same here... the models have been showing that continuing most of the day.    Although visibility is pretty good here now and there are even some breaks in the clouds towards the rising sun.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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17 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll have to check what the trajectory was on the 1999 AR events.  Ones that come more directly from the west have a much better track record of leading to the goodies than ones that are SW or SSW.  I think that's because the more westerly trajectory ones indicate the axis of the suppressed Pacific Ridge is further west which leads to a better chance of future amplification being in the sweet spot.

Following up on this... the angle of this AR plume is definitely from the SW and not directly from the west.

 

sat 11-14.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12Z NAM holds the main front off in the Seattle area until almost noon tomorrow and then pushes it through very quickly... its gone by 4 p.m.     That is a huge improvement in terms of the flooding situation out here.

nam-nest-nw-precip_1hr_inch-7002800.png

nam-nest-nw-precip_1hr_inch-7020800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA is at .53 for the day already with the main moisture plume well to the north... and 1.57 for this event so far.  

SEA is now at 6.52 for November which is above normal for the entire month.   And 35.50 inches for the year which 5.54 inches above normal.    2021 is going to end up being another significantly wet year in the Seattle area continuing the theme of the last decade.  

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interestingly... the rain has basically stopped in OLM.    Only .02 for the day down there so far.

OLM is 7.21 inches above normal for the the year... so even wetter than SEA in terms of anomaly for 2021.

We have the complete opposite of drought up here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s smokin warm in Smokey Point currently while out on my Sunday morning gas and grocery shopping run.  
Dry and breezy, only .05” so far on the day. 

46EF6D8F-7950-43F4-B882-CCDFE93258EE.jpeg

06Z ECMWF says it might be snowing up there in 48 hours.  😀

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7071200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I can’t remember a torch like this so late in November in terms of warm temps

and duration. Maybe 1999?

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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0.01” of rain since midnight, keeping the streak alive. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_T2ma_namer_65.thumb.png.c5f2d5094a38bf9af616e787d2780d3f.png

La... Niña? 🤔

The long range 06z was the exact opposite of the 00z...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I can’t remember a torch like this so late in November in terms of warm temps

and duration. Maybe 1999?

1999 was even more impressive up here.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1995 as well.

That makes me feel a little better. 
 

Meanwhile noticing a lot of yellowjackets around this weekend, they seem confused about the time of year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The run to run consistency on the GFS for week two is horrendous to say the least.

Meanwhile...up to 1.50" for this event here now.  Looks like they upped the crest for the Skagit at Mount Vernon to within an eyelash of the all time record height.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That makes me feel a little better. 
 

Meanwhile noticing a lot of yellowjackets around this weekend, they seem confused about the time of year. 

I'm kind of surprised you're nervous about this.  Torches in La Nina Novembers have a rich history of leading to very good things.  It hasn't been that torchy everywhere anyhow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Woke up to find this odd thing called... No rain falling. It's completely dry with a slight breeze. 0.44 since midnight, 1.32 for the event. 

I think dry is the wrong word.  It's sopping wet out there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah cause the GFS 16 days out is so believable 

And even if the East does score some major cold in November....so what?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

True. I think my sense of the word "dry" has been warped a bit over the past extremely wet 30+ days. 

I've gotten so warped I'm kind of disappointed the projections for 5 inches on yesterday's runs look they probably won't verify here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm kind of surprised you're nervous about this.  Torches in La Nina Novembers have a rich history of leading to very good things.  It hasn't been that torchy everywhere anyhow.

+4.7F on the month here so far. That's a torch so is this a regional thing or what? Does the same thing apply about warm Novembers if they are cooler and wetter up there, but a shitshow down this way?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

+4.7F on the month here so far. That's a torch so is this a regional thing or what? Does the same thing apply about warm Novembers if they are cooler and wetter up there, but a shitshow down this way?

It looks regional today...

C406550E-A690-49FB-B89A-BE310B0833E8.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 z is a lot different in the long range.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It’s dry for now but we’re at 0.45” since midnight and 1.26” for the event…6.29” so far this month. 

  • Rain 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've gotten so warped I'm kind of disappointed the projections for 5 inches on yesterday's runs look they probably won't verify here.

Everything is so soaked down here too it’s a good thing for us but really bad for up north. I’d rather not have landslides shutting down schuster parkway and a bunch of other roads in Tacoma like December 2019. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

Considering my area is likely going to end up with about 10 inches of rain in a week... its pretty amazing that the worst we will end up with is just minor flooding on Snoqualmie River.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It looks regional today...

C406550E-A690-49FB-B89A-BE310B0833E8.jpeg

That it is.  This will be partially offset by the chiller weather coming up though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

I don’t think anyones seriously worried about this winter just yet considering it hasn’t even started. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an interesting aside on warm weather in a La Nina November is this.  January 1909 and January 1950 were the two most extreme -PNA episodes of the 20th century and both were La Nina winters that had major torches in November.

More recently I think we can all remember the gnashing of teeth in November 2008 as well.

2008 was better than average but I'd take a 13-14 or even a 16-17 repeat here. All depends on location, the PNW is a big region (Thanks Madden).

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Down here we probably still could end up with close to 3 inches of rain for the event. When the Pineapple Express pushes through to the south I’d imagine there will be several hours of heavy rain still. Even down here today won’t be too dry. 

Good point.  I think there is a good chance of over performance when the colder air begins to push south.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I don’t think anyones seriously worried about this winter just yet considering it hasn’t even started. 

It just amazes how nervous people get about warmth in November though.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Chris unpinned this topic

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