Jump to content

PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, The Swamp said:

I was able to get out in the yard this afternoon and cut my grass.  Grass keeps growing because it hasn't been cold.  I know Jim tells everyone a .5 degree deviation for October was amazing and all but the grass doesn't lie.  Grass doesn't lie. It's still growing and needs to be cut.  Not cold.  Not be any ones standards.

This is the craziest La Nina I have seen.  My guess is this turn out to be a winter.

Oh yeah, it might be 48 and 38 for a few days.  

Shall we all throw a party?  It's a warning shot right?

I've said it before and I'll say it again.  Screw warning shots.  I don't need any warning or saving the good stuff until later.  Bring it on NOW.

The nights will be colder than that.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

I can dig it up for you for Eugene.. just for November alone. Haven't had a dry day so far with nearly 5" of rain. Interesting! 

 

Eugene.png

Looks like Eugene had 2.55” in September 2.74” in October and 4.77” this month (not sure if the data on the nws Portland website is the same one here) but that’s 10.06” in that mid September through now timeframe. 2 inches less than Portland and 4 inches less than here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like Eugene had 2.55” in September 2.74” in October and 4.77” this month (not sure if the data on the new Portland website is the same one here) but that’s 10.06” in that mid September through now timeframe. 2 inches less than Portland and 4 inches less than here. 

Should be. 4.77" for Nov is spot on. SEA is 5.05" for the month.

Screwed. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

I can dig it up for you for Eugene.. just for November alone. Haven't had a dry day so far with nearly 5" of rain. Interesting! 

 

Eugene.png

Very well then. Worth noting that the drought also progressively gets worse as one goes south, so though it seems like you look upon the complaints of some here with scathing criticism, keep in mind that said areas need more rain as a whole to catch up.

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cloud said:

Should be. 4.77" for Nov is spot on. 

Screwed. 

I do think Eugene actually averages a bit more rain than Seattle by a couple inches. It’s not like they haven’t had much less rain than here though just a few inches less over the past 2 months. But still I’m sure the updated drought maps next week will look much different in Oregon than the last update that came out yesterday. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regarding whether October was cold or not...the first half was the coldest first half of October since 1990, and there were some days with much below normal temps.  Nuff said.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Very well then. Worth noting that the drought also progressively gets worse as one goes south, so though it seems like you look upon the complaints of some here with scathing criticism, keep in mind that said areas need more rain as a whole to catch up.

Go back a few pages in this thread and see that I posted the drought map for both OR and WA and have stated that OR do need much more rain than up here due to its drought conditions. I'm not being inconsiderate, I'm simply pointing out facts that some of you complain way too much on here as if it's still bone dry down there since fall began. Which is not remotely close to being true. I would love for the next AR to hit  your area, but we can't control the weather. 

  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

00z GFS = much drier for you Wahingtonians

 

I don't know if I'd say much drier.  The real area of concern appears to be the area of the Cascades that effects the Skagit River on this run.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cloud said:

Go back a few pages in this thread and see that I posted the drought map for both OR and WA and have stated that OR do need much more rain than up here due to its drought conditions. I'm not being inconsiderate, I'm simply pointing out facts that some of you complain way too much on here as if it's bone dry down there since fall began. Which is not remotely close to being true. I would love for the next AR to hit  your area, but we can't control the weather. 

Never accused you of being inconsiderate. All I'm trying to say here is exactly what you've already stated-- some areas need more rain. I don't think anyone is at all insinuating that it has thus far been bone dry down here-- that's a ridiculous point of view because as you said, it really hasn't. 

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

How exactly did you augment drainage?  

I figured out the big issue! Went back up there now that it stopped raining (moonlight now actually) and what had happened was the force of that much water shoved a whole ton of drain rock that had been there from the original drainage from the previous owners of the 60 acres did, it came all the way down and completely packed the large culvert pipe we put in so we could have tractor access to our property. Tomorrow I will be unstuffing a 15’ pipe and my neighbor will be sandbagging the crap out of everything as a precaution. Tonight was close to a disaster. 

  • Like 6

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Never accused you of being inconsiderate. All I'm trying to say here is exactly what you've already stated-- some areas need more rain. I don't think anyone is at all insinuating that it has thus far been bone dry down here-- that's a ridiculous point of view because as you said, it really hasn't. 

Insinuating you get "table scraps" down there suggests otherwise. 

  • Downvote 1
  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't know if I'd say much drier.  The real area of concern appears to be the area of the Cascades that effects the Skagit River on this run.

He means relative to the 18z Euro. The GFS shows about 1/3 of what the Euro showed for the Central Sound. Focus is well to the north in SW BC.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, snow drift said:

From Nate Mantua today - first monthly reading under -2.0 since September 2012.

2021 PDO Index monthly values:

January   -0.16

February -0.54

March     -1.17

April        -0.91

May        -0.94

June      -1.18

July        -1.87

August   -1.12

September  -1.53

October     -2.55

Wow!  I thought he had disappeared off the face of the Earth.  I've been using the NCEP values for months now.  This is one of the most robust -PDO events on record.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol guys I think we should just be thankful that there’s been plenty of rain to help the drought concerns in Oregon…things are looking good down there especially with the La Niña we’re in. I’m pretty confident by the time March rolls around Oregon the drought map will look much better than it does now. Hopefully spring 2022 isn’t as dry as the last couple springs down that way that’s critical. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Not for Skagit/Whatcom counties though.

It shows ungodly amounts for the extreme southern BC and extreme northwestern WA Cascades alright.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol guys I think we should just be thankful that there’s been plenty of rain to help the drought concerns in Oregon…things are looking good down there especially with the La Niña we’re in. I’m pretty confident by the time March rolls around Oregon the drought map will look much better than it does now. Hopefully spring 2022 isn’t as dry as the last couple springs down that way that’s critical. 

I am really thankful for the past 8 weeks or so. Like you said, hopefully we can at least have a normal spring and we should be in much better shape. I will never stop wanting more rain though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Insinuating you get "table scraps" down there suggests otherwise. 

Did I ever insinuate that? (Hint: the answer is no)

 

As far as the other poster? Pretty sure he meant for this AR, which isn't far from the truth.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I am really thankful for the past 8 weeks or so. Like you said, hopefully we can at least have a normal spring and we should be in much better shape. I will never stop wanting more rain though.

Yeah I get it man I’m always rooting for lots of rain (besides getting 6” like the euro). One of the big problems the last couple years is the dry springs that we’ve had. Can be a really wet fall/winter but if there’s only 50% of normal rainfall during the spring then that’s not good for the summer. Has been really dry to start the summers off which obviously doesn't help the wildfire situation. Would have figured last spring would’ve been wetter considering that was also a nina. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I said table scraps. I was referring to the upcoming AR. Am I incorrect?

It happens and unfortunately, base on the WV trajectory of this system, it's going to come in a bit farther north to have an impactful event for PDX. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Regarding whether October was cold or not...the first half was the coldest first half of October since 1990, and there were some days with much below normal temps.  Nuff said.

It was an average October... and we’ve been torching since mid October. 

  • Thanks 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Sorry late to the 00z GFS party. Did I miss anything great? Oh and can someone research the the tendency for -PDO cold phase with AR events? I'm really intrigued to know this. Thanks.

00z ECMWF in 53 minutes

No the GFS blows 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I figured out the big issue! Went back up there now that it stopped raining (moonlight now actually) and what had happened was the force of that much water shoved a whole ton of drain rock that had been there from the original drainage from the previous owners of the 60 acres did, it came all the way down and completely packed the large culvert pipe we put in so we could have tractor access to our property. Tomorrow I will be unstuffing a 15’ pipe and my neighbor will be sandbagging the crap out of everything as a precaution. Tonight was close to a disaster. 

Yeah that’ll do it. 😂

Hope it goes well!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For as much as it rains here, the soil drains very well, water has never been much of a problem.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

floop-gdps-2021111300.500h_anom.na(3).gif

Omg

what 

a

nightmare

  • lol 1
  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - Strong jet extension over the Western Pacific way out in la-la land, so not a great chance the Pacific slows down anytime soon.

300wh.npac.png

 

I think DeweyDoggyMatty has an idea as to when it might slow down! 

  • Like 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We went out for dinner in North Bend tonight... it is incredibly nice outside.   Moon and stars are shining and there is no wind at all and it's warm.   My wife knew it was not raining but she instinctively braced herself walking out of the restaurant for rain and wind and was pleasantly surprised.  😀

  • Excited 1
  • Windy 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For as much as it rains here, the soil drains very well, water has never been much of a problem.

Same here... we live on the side of a rocky ridge so all the water that falls up here runs off very quickly down into the Snoqualmie River and out.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...