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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Flood forecast continues to worsen for the Skagit. I can't imagine it will actually peak 2' above the record, but it's possible.

20211114_1900_Skagitflooding.png.ab40585c9a262828a8f260aa6b021c6b.png

Also, unless they're seeing something that I'm not, I'm not exactly sure this forecast for the Samish River is correct either. The rate of river increase is still accelerating and it's still dumping rain out there.

20211114_1900_samishRiverForecast.png.a03d23efa5907640059f4565f8ca1afd.png

I think the Skagit could be even worse than shown.  The firehose just continues to worsen up there.  I agree with you on the Samish.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er offers some interest

500h_anom.na.png

Boston getting the works

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 30th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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For this area this event has been kind of anti climatic.  It looked like we could get 5 inches total and now it looks like a little over 2 will be it.  Also mostly blocked from the wind here.  I'm certainly looking forward to the mini cold snap though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For this area this event has been kind of anti climatic.  It looked like we could get 5 inches total and now it looks like a little over 2 will be it.  Also mostly blocked from the wind here.  I'm certainly looking forward to the mini cold snap though.

Dodged a bullet so to speak.  Some very heavy drizzle with the wind. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Dodged a bullet so to speak.  Some very heavy drizzle with the wind. 

We definitely dodged a bullet... its plenty wet but it could have been pretty bad.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not surprising, but the Fraser Valley is getting pounded today too. BC Lower Mainland is cut off from the rest of Canada due to mudslides and flooded roads. 174.5mm (6.8 inches) reported in Hope.

 

It's been a long time since significamt flooding on the lower Fraser (1949, I believe), and it was devastating. I'm not sure people would really know what to expect if it started flooding again, especially as much as that region has exploded in population since then.

 

FWIW, floodwaters in Sumas drain north into the Fraser.

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We definitely dodged a bullet... its plenty wet but it could have been pretty bad.

Seems like you are due.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 11.5 strong jet blasting across the Pacific

300wh.npac.png

Everything is buckled over the continent though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like you are due.

Could be... but these extreme patterns are not that common and we were saved by small shifts twice now.   One to the south and one to the north.     Unfortunately it looks like that second shift has been really bad for people up north. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12 minutes ago, North_County said:

Not surprising, but the Fraser Valley is getting pounded today too. BC Lower Mainland is cut off from the rest of Canada due to mudslides and flooded roads. 174.5mm (6.8 inches) reported in Hope.

 

It's been a long time since significamt flooding on the lower Fraser (1949, I believe), and it was devastating. I'm not sure people would really know what to expect if it started flooding again, especially as much as that region has exploded in population since then.

 

FWIW, floodwaters in Sumas drain north into the Fraser.

Weird how these years like 1906, 1949, 1990, etc keep getting referenced in all of this.  Regardless of what ENSO, QBO, or whatever else those years were there was similar observed weather to this year.  We'll soon see if there is anything to it.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like you are due.

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The models show a dominance of surface high pressure over us pretty consistently after tomorrow.  Could finally see a fog episode set up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

I think the flooding up north will pretty much suffice for the whole state for a good long while.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the flooding up north will pretty much suffice for the whole state for a good long while.

Yeah... these patterns are not that common and it comes down to the fine details each time.    So it is a relief when we are spared the worst.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Weird how these years like 1906, 1949, 1990, etc keep getting referenced in all of this.  Regardless of what ENSO, QBO, or whatever else those years were there was similar observed weather to this year.  We'll soon see if there is anything to it.

Actually, I had the year wrong. It was 1948, not 1949.  And it was a spring freshet flood, not a November AR. So, in this case at least, I dont think you can use it to draw any realistic comparisons.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We've had a couple of notable rain events besides this one in the past few weeks.

We had 6” in less than 48 hours here... Pretty good... Not the most we’ve seen by any means, but a once every 2-3 year event. It was probably our best rain event since February or March 2017. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, North_County said:

Actually, I had the year wrong. It was 1948, not 1949.  And it was a spring freshet flood, not a November AR. So, in this case at least, I dont think you can use it to draw any realistic comparisons.

No doubt.  The spring 1948 floods were epic and a completely different thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We had 6” in less than 48 hours here... Pretty good... Not the most we’ve seen by any means, but a once every 2-3 year event. It was probably our best rain event since February or March 2017. 

That's a good one for sure.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Where in SV is that at?  I used to live in SV, in the condos behind the store.

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Worth noting that hour 384 on the 00z indicates it MAY be December 1st.  Definitely something to watch over the next couple weeks…

I am going to guess that December will not be as wet as November.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, mtep said:

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

What is SV?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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So far so good on keeping the PV split and disorganized this season.  AO and NAO forecasts continue to show it will remain that way for a while at least.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 11

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 16

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Sudden Valley east of Bellingham next to Lake Whatcom.  

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there... many places were just too dark for them.    They ended up north of the lake in a place with great south and west exposure.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think he meant we are due for major flooding out here... which might be true.    It will obviously happen eventually. 

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, mtep said:

Just inside of gate 9 backed up to Beaver Creek, beautiful lot with a good amount of sun for SV. Really happy/excited for them to get to move up here. This climate is a solid upgrade for them coming from Texas and Saudi Arabia lol. My dad will definitely spend a good amount of the year worrying about the creek and falling limbs from the old growth gargantuan in the front yard though 😂 

Thanks.  They may like the Stimson trail close by.  Dark trail deep in the woods with a lot of old growth.  I also found SV often gets more snow than Bellingham due to being away from Bellingham Bay.  I also always enjoyed the drive from town all along the lake.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

Could definitely be true... this might be that type of winter.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there... many places were just too dark for them.    They ended up north of the lake in a place with great south and west exposure.   

Yeah I knew people who moved away from SV because of that.  One of the reasons I bought the condo where I did.  Had good views looking east so I got more sun than most.  Other parts are so surrounded by trees you would never know which way is east or west.

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Not many power outages thankfully, despite the strong winds and powerful gusts today.  Very minimal for the most part, thank goodness.  These are from Snohomish County PUD and Puget Sound Energy.  

The counties with the most outages from the wind are... Stevens County, Yakima County, Kitsap County, and Mason County at the moment. 

Nothing to report but a tiny amount of outages in Multnomah County in Oregon.

Screen Shot 2021-11-14 at 9.27.22 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-11-14 at 9.29.00 PM.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could definitely be true... this might be that type of winter.  

We will see. Looks like a very dry last half of November could be on half, at face value places in western Oregon would finish this month around normal to slightly above in terms of precip. We have had persistent wet weather for about a month, but the aggregate has not been anything close to unprecedented. If December is dry, I would expect the pacific to ramp

up in January... but I don’t think December will dry... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 31.1                         2021-22: 40.64" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That is what I meant, and let’s be honest this is more likely to continue to be a theme of this wet season. 1995 had November floods, and it was just the beginning. 

Just looked up 1995... there was 17 days in December with no precip out here so there was at least some decent breaks.   Its been raining on most days out here since the middle of September.    Hopefully we can at least get into a pattern with some meaningful dry breaks... maybe even some of them with snow on the ground.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just looked up 1995... there was 17 days in December with no precip out here so there was at least some decent breaks.   Its been raining on most days out here since the middle of September.    Hopefully we can at least get into a pattern with some meaningful dry breaks... maybe even some of them with snow on the ground.

We had a little snow right after the big windstorm in December 1995! I remember walking out to the family camper in the snow to take a warm shower since the power was out for a few days. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My parents looked at properties in Sudden Valley and I remember sun exposure was an issue there.

We looked at houses there, and fortunately got warned off about the SV HOA (aka People's Republic of Sudden Valley).

 

Lot's of really nice houses to be had in PRSV for a song, and I don't think we would have been too turned off by the lack of sun exposure, but the HOA on the other hand was a deal breaker.

 

Looks like the rainfall rates have picked up again, up to 2.75"  Assuming the rainfall  keeps up, we should tick over 3" in the next hour or so. 

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