PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[joelgombiner]

It's been an an active pattern. Excited to see what it does next. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

We are all Randy 

I think our Smurf friend in Gold Bar is going to get a dump of wet snow in that c-zone. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

We are all Randy 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Hmmm, ridge redeveloping further offshore.

[ShawniganLake]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Somebody up north is going to get snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning...

 

Models have been toying with the possibility of some cold air catching up with the backside of that baroclinic band. 

[smerfylicious]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think our Smurf friend in Gold Bar is going to get a dump of wet snow in that c-zone. 

I'll let you know if it happens. Worst case scenario I'll have pretty pictures of the mountains. Best case, I'll have a poorly taken picture of my backyard with a wet dusting

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er Hmmm, ridge redeveloping further offshore.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, smerfylicious said:

I'll let you know if it happens. Worst case scenario I'll have pretty pictures of the mountains. Best case, I'll have a poorly taken picture of my backyard with a wet dusting

Might be significantly more than a dusting.    Has there been a c-zone snowstorm since you moved there?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Models have been toying with the possibility of some cold air catching up with the backside of that baroclinic band. 

That lowland snow is actually entirely related to a c-zone well after the baroclinic band is shoved way east.    

Here is a view of precip when the snow is falling... the baroclinic band is long gone and washed out already.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Not there yet. Yet

 

[smerfylicious]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be significantly more than a dusting.    Has there been a c-zone snowstorm since you moved there?

Not to my recollection. There was a good dusting in early April, but I don't remember that as being c-zone related

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Not to my recollection. There was a good dusting in early April, but I don't remember that as being c-zone related

Well this might be a good introduction!  Many times... elevation does not matter when you are right under the c-zone.    You could easily get 6-8 inches of snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning if the precip is heavy enough.  

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this might be a good introduction!  Many times... elevation does not matter when you are right under the c-zone.    You could easily get 6-8 inches of snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning if the precip is heavy enough.  

I couldn't complain about that! IIRC my elevation is only 200'. Incredible given how far from Everett we are. Valley lives up to its name.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the ECMWF is going for a longer chilly period than the GFS.  That's been quite consistent on recent runs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this might be a good introduction!  Many times... elevation does not matter when you are right under the c-zone.    You could easily get 6-8 inches of snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning if the precip is heavy enough.  

Get those downbursts going. 

[snow_wizard]

I think the lowland snow being shown on the ECMWF is a more serious threat this time.  925mb temps drop to -2 or so in the area in question.  Looks like a warning shot to me.  I think 1990 had one or two of those before the big event.  This latest run has a 42/33 day shown.  Solid chill for this time of year.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Get those downbursts going. 

Yeah...C-zones are good at dragging cold air from aloft down to the surface.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1933-34

I was thinking about that one today.  We will never know what went wrong, because there is just too little data on QBO and all of that stuff.  Certainly should have been a great winter, but it wasn't.  On the other hand the 1930s was a crazy decade.  At least as whacked out as anything seen recently.

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

I couldn't complain about that! IIRC my elevation is only 200'. Incredible given how far from Everett we are. Valley lives up to its name.

Your area is buried so deep in that mountain valley it gets shut off from south winds and other moderating influences.  Near here we have the Green River Valley which is higher elevation, but is also long and susceptible to much more continental influence.  It's always kind of fun seeing the number for Lester which is only at 1500 feet, but has pretty impressive winters.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Must have been a wet one.

December 1933 was insanely wet.  For years I have wanted to be able to find out more about that one.  A total one off La Nina winter.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was an average October... and we’ve been torching since mid October. 

Doesn't change what happened the first half of the month.  Seattle was well below normal for monthly average BTW.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Endless rain in November is a great sign.

1853 is another one that comes to mind...

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I think DeweyDoggyMatty has an idea as to when it might slow down! 

It's actually going to slow down for a while early next week hence the colder temps and drier weather.

[NWbyNW]

Hope everyone is having a lovely evening.

Currently 48F, cloudy, light sprinkles that last a matter of minutes than disappear here in Everett, WA.  I've been enjoying the rain, but I am worried about the rivers and the communities around them.  

In the past I did help in Mt. Vernon/Burlington to sandbag the areas along the river, but now they have a new wall system which is pretty nifty.  In a matter of minutes, the walls lock up and can protect the downtown area from raising water.  If you haven't seen it and happen to be in the area, give it a peek. It's pretty cool and saves a lot of time.  Sadly not all towns are this lucky. 

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well this might be a good introduction!  Many times... elevation does not matter when you are right under the c-zone.    You could easily get 6-8 inches of snow on Monday night into Tuesday morning if the precip is heavy enough.  

I was actually right next door to our old place yesterday afternoon for my kids school function (20 acre events facility that our friends still own) and I had instant memories of February 2018 when looking over at our old property. Even though it’s only at 300’ the c-zone really works it’s magic there during the right setup. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Doesn't change what happened the first half of the month.  Seattle was well below normal for monthly average BTW.

Ehhh... all the stations in the SEA NWS area were pretty close to normal in October.   SEA was on its own.  And I don't think cold weather payback gets down to the neighborhood level.    It was a cold October in this neighborhood so you will get lots of snow in a couple months... but 2 miles away it was normal so you are screwed.    

[snow_wizard]

November 1853 had 18.41 inches of rain in Tacoma and January went on to have 6 mins of 5F or below.  Three of those 0, 0 ,and -1.

[TT-SEA]

EPS shows warm 850mb temps through the long range... after a couple days of colder air behind the next AR.    EPS control run is even warmer.      Did someone mention December?     

 

[MossMan]

Ended the day with 2.75”, 8.69” for the month, and 50.88” for the year. 
Currently 43 degrees. 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS shows warm 850mb temps through the long range... after a couple days of colder air behind the next AR.    EPS control run is even warmer.      Did someone mention December?     

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Patience... I am pretty sure this will pay off eventually.  

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Patience... I am pretty sure this will pay off eventually.  

[snow_wizard]

BTW this month hasn't really been a torch either.  SEA was 0.0 for the month as of yesterday, and we just recently had some below normal days and mountain snows.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW this month hasn't really been a torch either.  SEA was 0.0 for the month as of yesterday, and we just recently had some below normal days and mountain snows.

A torch is a good thing 

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS shows warm 850mb temps through the long range... after a couple days of colder air behind the next AR.    EPS control run is even warmer.      Did someone mention December?     

 

My experience is the part of the country that draws first blood on the cold usually isn't the big winner in the end.  I remember how long it took us to get cold again after the initial cold shot in November 2010.

The thing I like about the EPS is it's not zonal.  It's getting blockier.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

A torch is a good thing 

I'm not denying that at all.  There just seems to be some misconceptions on here lately. 

With these recent AR events we're going to do fine IMO.

I also want to make a final point about October.  The thing that has kind of gotten under my skin is the insinuation that I was making a big deal about nothing with the cold in the first half of the month.  There were record lows, record low max temps, and some of the most sustained early October cold in a long time.  I'm not denying the entire month was only a bit below normal.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Patience... I am pretty sure this will pay off eventually.  

People get so hung up on the way things go in the early going.  I'll never forget the attitude on here in Nov 2008.

[snow_wizard]

Amazingly the sky has cleared out pretty nicely here.  Down to 44 thanks to the clearing.

[Meatyorologist]

Went for a walk earlier, cleared up aloft which cooled us a bit. Fogged up nicely in a matter of 30 mins. 46°F currently.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

My experience is the part of the country that draws first blood on the cold usually isn't the big winner in the end.  I remember how long it took us to get cold again after the initial cold shot in November 2010.

The thing I like about the EPS is it's not zonal.  It's getting blockier.

The EPS and other ensembles have been showing blocking in the 7-16 day range for about 10 days now.  Seems like it keeps getting pushed back.