PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW this month hasn't really been a torch either.  SEA was 0.0 for the month as of yesterday, and we just recently had some below normal days and mountain snows.

We are +3.1F for the month and will be piling on another double-digit positive departure from today. Our 23rd since our last double-digit negative departure.

Anybody else had it worse?

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

The EPS and other ensembles have been showing blocking in the 7-16 day range for about 10 days now.  Seems like it keeps getting pushed back.

Big changes in the models within 6 days. MBG

6z GFS  in 34 minutes

[smerfylicious]

49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

People get so hung up on the way things go in the early going.  I'll never forget the attitude on here in Nov 2008.

A good authority has told me that if it doesn't happen by November 12th, then winter is canceled. Sorry, thems the breaks. Maybe next year

[The Blob]

Foggy drive home

[Meatyorologist]

That 07-08 analog is coming in hot...

[Meatyorologist]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Cloud]

We're dealing with some fog and mist this morning. Low visibility. 46. 

I honestly don't remember when was the last time we had fog here. It's been a while. 

[smerfylicious]

23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Is that good or bad? I'm a pleb

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

Is that good or bad? I'm a pleb

It tends to lead to more zonal flow. But with La Niña around, that likely means a tendency towards NW zonal flow and gobs of pass-level snow, reaching down into California periodically. Somewhat lessened chance of GOA high-latitude blocking and subsequent arctic intrusions, but also a much more reduced risk of a nationwide Pacific flow-dominant torch. Cold can bottle up more easily in Canada with this background state, and any favorably transient blocking pattern could unload arctic air into our region. 07-08 was really unlucky in that regard.

[smerfylicious]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It tends to lead to more zonal flow. But with La Niña around, that likely means a tendency towards NW zonal flow and gobs of pass-level snow, reaching down into California periodically. Somewhat lessened chance of GOA high-latitude blocking and subsequent arctic intrusions, but also a much more reduced risk of a nationwide Pacific flow-dominant torch. Cold can bottle up more easily in Canada with this background state, and any favorably transient blocking pattern could unload arctic air into our region. 07-08 was really unlucky in that regard.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, smerfylicious said:

There's always a chance!

In all honesty I'd put our chances of an Arctic intrusion at slightly above average. Above normal due to -ENSO, only slightly so because of -QBO and ensuing raging jet. Either way our mountains, barring something going horribly wrong, will be in great shape come the beginning of next summer.

[Blizzard777]

Thick fog in Tigard Or. (my current location). 
 

[The Swamp]

43 unbearable degrees here in The Swamp boys.  Brrrrrrrr.

No rain though.  I'm up early for my coffee.  At first hint of daylight I'll be in the yard pruning and cleaning things up.  Gotta get this done before the next big rain dump and then frigid arctic air that is coming.

[TT-SEA]

This AR is much more well-defined than the last one... that is concerning in terms of flooding.

 

[Blizzard777]

Looks like some fresh snow fell at some point after the warm rain. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Jginmartini said:

Looks like some fresh snow fell at some point after the warm rain. 

Beautiful sunrise here... but will be raining by the time sun goes down.  

[Blizzard777]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This AR is much more well-defined than the last one... that is concerning in terms of flooding.

 

Definitely concerned on this next one for those who are targeted

[The Swamp]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Definitely concerned on this next one for those who are targeted

It definitely looks more consolidated.  Kind of hoping it sags south and allow Oregon to re-hydrate.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, The Swamp said:

It definitely looks more consolidated.  Kind of hoping it sags south and allow Oregon to re-hydrate.

In this case... sagging south means we get pounded.     We have to hope for farther north.   But the last one seemed to end up farther south than predicted so that is a bad sign for us this time around. 

[The Swamp]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In this case... sagging south means we get pounded.     We have to hope for farther north.   But the last one seemed to end up farther south than predicted so that is a bad sign for us this time around. 

Yeah.  This last one was kind of wimpy.  The sat/radar on that beat out in the Pacific is quite impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm morning. 47. Ended up with 2.66”

of rain yesterday. 10.10” on the month. Wish we could keep it going but it looks like we will dry out quite a bit. By Tuesday temps could go back near normal...

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In this case... sagging south means we get pounded.     We have to hope for farther north.   But the last one seemed to end up farther south than predicted so that is a bad sign for us this time around. 

Is there a 6Z euro update on where it sets up shop

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Is there a 6Z euro update on where it sets up shop

There is a 06Z run... and it was a little south of the 00Z run.

 

[AlTahoe]

10 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1933-34

1933-1934 and 2014-2015 were almost identical uo here. The only two Winters where we did not have a winter. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

Is that good or bad? I'm a pleb

 

Found this online:

The QBO in an easterly phase tends to promote a weaker polar vortex in the stratosphere, resulting in a propensity for more stratospheric warming events during the winter months (allowing high latitude blocking and -NAO episodes to flourish). The QBO in a westerly phase tends to allow a stronger polar vortex to form, limiting high latitude blocking and resulting in a more positive AO and NAO phase during the winter months.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning... can't remember the last time the cottonwoods made it to the middle of November showing color.

[ShawniganLake]

12z Gfs shows 6” of rain in Victoria the next 2.5 days. That would equal the average for the entire month of November. Seems unlikely those numbers verify

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still keeps the bulk of the AR to the north...

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

Seahawks 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Seahawks 

Yep.

[snow_wizard]

7 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We are +3.1F for the month and will be piling on another double-digit positive departure from today. Our 23rd since our last double-digit negative departure.

Anybody else had it worse?

You have been pretty much screwed there repeatedly as of late.  We had a couple of double digit minus departures in October up here.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

12z Gfs shows 6” of rain in Victoria the next 2.5 days. That would equal the average for the entire month of November. Seems unlikely those numbers verify

Pretty close to what the 6z ECMWF shows.

This one looks very bad for the prospects of major flooding on the Skagit River.

EDIT:  Looks like I was accidentally looking at the 6z GFS.  The ECMWF shows 3 inches or so for Victoria.

[ShawniganLake]

Next week is actually looking pretty chilly. 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree on just how strong /persistent the GOA positive height anoms will be early next week.  The ECMWF like the idea of a sharper longer lasting ridge which equates to colder temps for us.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Next week is actually looking pretty chilly. 

No question about that.  Especially on the ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Next week is actually looking pretty chilly. 

00Z EPS showed that we settle into upper 40s for highs down here after this AR event.     The average high at SEA drops into the upper 40s this coming week.     The average high at SEA bottoms out at 44 on 12/28 and then starts to slowly rise again starting on 1/7... getting back to 50 on 2/11.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly looks like a torch for much of the weekend before the cooler air arrives.

Surprisingly it managed to drop to 40 here last night with clearing skies.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it’s about to start raining in NW WA. 
 Got down to 43 here this morning. Gonna have to get outside this morning for a little bit. Like others mentioned the euro did end up south of projected with the last AR…we might not be out of the woods here in the south sound. Either way it’s going to be wet here too it looks like. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful morning... can't remember the last time the cottonwoods made it to the middle of November showing color.

Drizzling here! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51 currently. 12z gfs is decent in the long range.