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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For example... Snoqualmie Falls had almost 7 inches of rain in 5 days right about at this time of year in 1999 from 11/9-11/13.    Nothing much happened after that... a couple chilly shots but a very dull winter.  

Yeah but was the snow level 7000ft or 4000ft? Makes massive difference. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I tend to agree... have we ever tallied up the AR events that did not lead to anything?     Starting with a cold period and looking back and finding an AR event earlier could just be coincidence.    AR events happen in many years at some point from October - December.      And certainly the specific angle of a particular AR has no impact on what happens months later.  

As much as I would love this system to be an omen of sorts for a good December blast, I think that's a fair argument. I mean, this is the PNW; we pretty much have an AR of some capacity almost every year, I imagine. Is there a firm differentiation between an AR and a "major" AR? Otherwise, it becomes real easy to pick at nits when finding evidence.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah but was the snow level 7000ft or 4000ft? Makes massive difference. 

The snow level during one event makes a massive difference in what happened for the rest of the winter?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Or again, there’s the simple tendency of the Pacific slowing down after being a persistent steam roller. Things tend to balance out in the long run and at some point this winter it will likely shut down for at least a short time. 1999-00’s don’t happen very often.

How that plays out exactly is anyone’s guess. Unless it’s December 2021, which is a no-brainer.

I'm only concerned if there's a road that doesn't lead to Walgreens.  Still bothers me.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah but was the snow level 7000ft or 4000ft? Makes massive difference. 

Highs were in the upper 50s and low 60s here during the 5 day AR event in November 1999.    Snow level was high during that period.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I tend to agree... have we ever tallied up the AR events that did not lead to anything?     Starting with a cold period and looking back and finding an AR event earlier could just be coincidence.    AR events happen in many years at some point from October - December.      And certainly the specific angle of a particular AR has no impact on what happens months later.  

Spoiler alert. Most of them...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm only concerned if there's a road that doesn't lead to Walgreens.  Still bothers me.

There are two immutable truths in life…

All roads lead to a Walgreens and all AR’s lead to frozen Walgreens parking lots.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That's what I was getting at. That's a A.R event for sure with those temps.  

Some very warm highs during that week in the middle of November in 1999 here... including 60, 62, 60, 65, 63, 62 during a 10-day period at Snoqualmie Falls with copious rain.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z ECMWF says screw any blocking that the 00Z run showed... jet energy is just way too strong.   Probably means no meaningful dry weather as well.  

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-7604000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not much rain on the ECMWF over the next 10 days.   😀

If this verifies... SEA will be over a foot of rain for the month with a week to go after this period.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7668800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

People get so hung up on the way things go in the early going.  I'll never forget the attitude on here in Nov 2008.

We’re probably not repeating 2008/09. Or 1949/50.

Just keeping it real.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful morning... can't remember the last time the cottonwoods made it to the middle of November showing color.

20211113_075222.jpg

Was just thinking the same this morning walking home from the mechanic. Really nice colors this year and they sure stuck around. 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think some people are still calling not getting soaked getting screwed. 🤣

If you screw right, you really should get soaked . . . 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some very warm highs during that week in the middle of November in 1999 here... including 60, 62, 60, 65, 63, 62 during a 10-day period at Snoqualmie Falls with copious rain.

There was also a 2nd big event late in November 1999 for good measure.

Also a nice deluge in mid November 2001....And late Novembers 2002 and 2004 up in NW WA and SW BC. And then there was November 20, 2012.

It's literally an annual event on the West Coast. It's merely confirmation bias to say a particular AR will lead to anything.

That being said, I do like to see a regionally wet fall. Tends to mean better prospects for mid-winter cold.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not much rain on the ECMWF over the next 10 days.   😀

If this verifies... SEA will be over a foot of rain for the month with a week to go after this period.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-7668800.png

That’s a pretty big shift from the dry and cool weather thats been anticipated. We would be at 13” of rain for November if that verifies…only 2” shy of November 2006 and it would be the wettest fall of the last 15 years. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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37 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There was also a 2nd big event late in November 1999 for good measure.

Also a nice deluge in mid November 2001....And late Novembers 2002 and 2004 up in NW WA and SW BC. And then there was November 20, 2012.

It's literally an annual event on the West Coast. It's merely confirmation bias to say a particular AR will lead to anything.

That being said, I do like to see a regionally wet fall. Tends to mean better prospects for mid-winter cold.

Thank you. Been too afraid to say this at risk of Fred throwing me into the Sun. 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s a pretty big shift from the dry and cool weather thats been anticipated. We would be at 13” of rain for November if that verifies…only 2” shy of November 2006 and it would be the wettest fall of the last 15 years. 

A wetter shift down here on this run too. Would put us around 14-15”, with a week left to go in the month. 

  • Rain 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows a cold Alaska in the long range...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8100800.png

All of the GOA ridges that’ve formed so far this fall have been flat/broad.

Which is kinda disappointing but fits Niña/-QBO climo.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wetter shift down here on this run too. Would put us around 14-15”, with a week left to go in the month. 

I feel like the other models are going to hop on board with this trend. Kinda been the story of the fall dry weather is always just in the clown range lol. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows a cold Alaska in the long range...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-8100800.png

Looks like we could see some more warm wet weather with that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Clown range EPS control run looks awful. Hopefully a blip.

Right back to the Greenland/Baffin Island vortex.

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And this isn’t even talking about how there could be 3 ARs in a ~10 day span. That’s nuts hopefully we revert back to drier conditions on the models or the bulk of the rain goes into southern Oregon somehow in the longer range forecasts. 

FBC88064-456C-453D-BAC2-D731E5FA8818.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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