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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


Meatyorologist

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Yep. King EURO wins!

If the euro ends up being right there’s a legitimate shot at beating November 2006 in rainfall which I didn’t think was possible. We will see though it just flipped to the very wet solution on the latest run definitely not set in stone. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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63F after a low of 54F. Looks like another double-digit positive temp departure. Now 24 since our last double-digit negative one. Gonna assume that's a dubious record.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Here comes the 3rd Pineapple Express since October 28th…with another one possibly coming later if the euros right. 

B2697554-F26A-4BD1-A84B-76C2CCCE73A8.jpeg

I could be at 11 inches for the month after this next AR.  Pretty insane.  Might rival 1853.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

We’re probably not repeating 2008/09. Or 1949/50.

Just keeping it real.

Probably not 1949-50.  2008 could happen.  You keep ignoring this month has basically no resemblance to November 2007, and other problems with that analog.  IMO what we are seeing now is a textbook precursor to a major cold event.  We will know soon enough.  I would gladly bet you a crisp $50.00 bill this winter will be more curvy than 2007-08.

I was going to comment the latest EPS runs are remarkably similar to those projections you've been showing us based on the MJO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

There was also a 2nd big event late in November 1999 for good measure.

Also a nice deluge in mid November 2001....And late Novembers 2002 and 2004 up in NW WA and SW BC. And then there was November 20, 2012.

It's literally an annual event on the West Coast. It's merely confirmation bias to say a particular AR will lead to anything.

That being said, I do like to see a regionally wet fall. Tends to mean better prospects for mid-winter cold.

I'll have to check what the trajectory was on the 1999 AR events.  Ones that come more directly from the west have a much better track record of leading to the goodies than ones that are SW or SSW.  I think that's because the more westerly trajectory ones indicate the axis of the suppressed Pacific Ridge is further west which leads to a better chance of future amplification being in the sweet spot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Fog just rolled up the hill...

25276F6C-52D8-49FA-928D-2A19EBD9CE79.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. 

0638D501-8896-443E-ABA2-08C874ADF804.jpeg

CEDE3E8E-9417-4BBB-81C3-1A9012918F25.jpeg

Yeah...the 12z ECMWF shows an insane 5 inches here with the event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fog just rolled up the hill...

25276F6C-52D8-49FA-928D-2A19EBD9CE79.jpeg

Cool pic.  We've had remarkably little fog here this autumn.  I always like a good fog episode every year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

12z & 18z. It’s shifting south. 

0638D501-8896-443E-ABA2-08C874ADF804.jpeg

CEDE3E8E-9417-4BBB-81C3-1A9012918F25.jpeg

It’s gonna be a real close call here but I think it’s gonna shift a little more south. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, North_County said:

Is it shifting south? Or just slightly increasing totals? The bullseye is still over Whatcom on both runs.

FWIW, rain just started here pretty steady. Cleaned the gutters early this morning and had the kids do a final check for anything in the back yard that looked.....bouyant.

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1 minute ago, T-Town said:

3.26 at Tacoma Narrows and 1.83 at JBLM. Quite a gradient. 

Yeah just a shift 10 miles north and it’s be like half the rainfall but the models seem to be trending the other way for now. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, The Swamp said:

Maybe The Swamp will get shadowed by the Olympics and cut our totals down a bit.  I won't complain.

The flow isn’t really aligned with there being a shadow in the south sound more central/north sound. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wetter shift down here on this run too. Would put us around 14-15”, with a week left to go in the month. 

Speaking of 14-15, seven years ago right now we were about to get hit with one helluva warning shot.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/13/a-serious-flood-or-a-few-showers-examining-sunday-nights-perilous-forecast-for-the-seattle-area/
 Have always liked joe zagrodniks posts this has some very good details on the potential for Seattle/Tacoma area. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

https://theconvergencezone.com/2021/11/13/a-serious-flood-or-a-few-showers-examining-sunday-nights-perilous-forecast-for-the-seattle-area/
 Have always liked joe zagrodniks posts this has some very good details on the potential for Seattle/Tacoma area. 

Sweet!  A new local weather blog to follow!  Thanks!  I didn't know of this one. 

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As I've mentioned before big floods on the Skagit River are particularly telling for whatever reason.  Since 1920 the biggest floods are.

December 1921 - Very cold weather followed.

November 1949 - Very cold weather followed

November 1990 - Very cold weather followed

November 1995 - Very cold weather followed

October 2003 - Rare late October Arctic outbreak followed, and best winter in the 1999 - 2006 period.

November 2006 - Very cold weather followed

November 2021 - ?

Interestingly 1990 had a double flood like this is going to be.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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13 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Maybe The Swamp will get shadowed by the Olympics and cut our totals down a bit.  I won't complain.

The ECMWF shows the Olympic shadow from about Sea - Tac northward.  Areas south of the Pierce / King county line will be decided by the placement of the AR.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

It is exceedingly gray/grey today!  If the land wasn't in these photos, they would just blend in with the water.  The Olympics are pretty obscured by the clouds, but the Cascades are visible.  Images reduced in size so they don't DESTROY the site. 😉 

DSCN9368.JPG

DSCN9367.JPG

At least the rain stopped for a while.  I was able to clean up the yard a bit from previous storms.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Just a casual 5~6" of rain over Victoria. 😮

This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here.  I still remember how crazy that one was.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here.  I still remember how crazy that one was.

We set our largest 1 day rainfall record with that one. I remember substantial flooding on campus with that one. The timing of this isn't great for daily records but the 2 day rainfall could be impressive.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This might rival the October 2003 rainfall here.  I still remember how crazy that one was.

This could be some crazy stuff coming up. I’m also interested in seeing about the potential for more wet weather coming after this one gfs isn’t quite as wet as the euro later next week. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows the Olympic shadow from about Sea - Tac northward.  Areas south of the Pierce / King county line will be decided by the placement of the AR.

Just crossing my fingers and hoping right now.  Everything is just soaked.  I have a few weeks off work coming up and it would be nice for some cold crisp dry weather to put up Christmas lights in and get some more leaves cleaned up.  D**n trees seem to be dropping them at their own special slow pace this year.

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