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PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion


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9 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I wouldn’t mind some cool, sunny days sprinkled in during summer so I can play a few dry rounds of golf. Other than that, yes, I want it to rain every single day. Or, at least be dreary and ‘’wet’’. I care more about rain at my house than PDX, but, yes, my enjoyment is somewhat diminished if PDX or other local (NW Oregon) stations underperform. 

My ideal climate would be: 300+ days of rain. Maybe 100’’ - 150’’ total evenly spread out through the year. The temp would never exceed 65 or get below 20. Very few sunny days. Lots of fog and low clouds when not raining. Some wet, sticky snow here and there would be great. Moss, ferns, and massive conifers all over. Every square inch covered in green. Grass never dies.

Move to Cannon Beach. Not quite that much rain but you can enjoy the rain and walk in the forest. You can enjoy the elk coming down to the city park, chewing up the grass and pooping in the road. The occasional snow at the beach is surreal. Saw it two or three times when I lived there.

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I'm actually kind of pleased the models are finally showing a legit inversion pattern coming up.  No autumn is complete without a good round of cold fog.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I always try to remember that the models changing doesn't really represent nature screwing us.    Nature does not care about attempts to predict nature.   Whatever happens was always going to happen no matter what our weather models showed beforehand.  

That’s debatable.

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3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Move to Cannon Beach. Not quite that much rain but you can enjoy the rain and walk in the forest. You can enjoy the elk coming down to the city park, chewing up the grass and pooping in the road. The occasional snow at the beach is surreal. Saw it two or three times when I lived there.

It is beautiful there. Too dry in the summer though. Also, freakin’ expensive. 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm actually kind of pleased the models are finally showing a legit inversion pattern coming up.  No autumn is complete without a good round of cold fog.

No comments on the Thursday night potential??

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Interesting post-frontal situation here... it stopped raining around 1 p.m. and there has been no precip since the main band cleared the area.    That is not usually how it works here after a front passes.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s debatable.

The models aren't changing what actually happens... they just change our expectations of what is going to happen.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The models aren't changing what actually happens... they just change our expectations of what is going to happen.

If we're in a simulation then the models could possibly change the weather. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No comments on the Thursday night potential??

I think a few places could see some flakes.  I'll be looking at it much more closely over the next day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

No comments on the Thursday night potential??

It was looking like at least some wet snow up here but the trend tonight has been towards a more suppressed system with very little precip up this way. Perhaps 1000-1500ft snow levels in western Washington 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

The fact that this forum has survived as long as it has is impressive, this is my 13th year.  Most forums die alot sooner these days!

We have been around in some form for much longer than that.  I've been through three of four different incarnations and different owners / admins.  The core group has been around 20 to 22 years or something like that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

We have been around in some form for much longer than that.  I've been through three of four different incarnations and different owners / admins.  The core group has been around 20 to 22 years or something like that.

I know that, I have only been involved for 13 years myself.

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

It was looking like at least some wet snow up here but the trend tonight has been towards a more suppressed system with very little precip up this way. Perhaps 1000-1500ft snow levels in western Washington 

Yeah I'd guess 700 to 1000ft on average.  Probably closer to 500 around hood canal and Shelton . The low could come in stronger and really make it interesting. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah I'd guess 700 to 1000ft on average.  Probably closer to 500 around hood canal and Shelton . The low could come in stronger and really make it interesting. 

I won't be surprised to get some flakes here at 200 feet, just has that look to it.

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I can remember exactly Tim's very first comment to me.  I posted a picture of tree's I sprayed with water and they made a beautiful frozen ice sculpture.  He said word for word, you'd have to be clinically insane to do that to a tree. Hahaha he didn't know I was going to cut them down in the spring. 

I don't remember that.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

00z Euro not looking good for lowland snow.

Lol it wouldn’t matter tho since we can’t trust it 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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41F and cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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59 minutes ago, Dave said:

If you want, you can borrow my Gameboy to pass the time while the power is out. It is just the original non color one, but I have Tetris. I only have 2 batteries left though.

I still have mine somewhere! I think it’s in the same box as my VHS snowstorm coverage from 1996! 

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12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If we're in a simulation then it technically would be possible for Tim to effect the weather.  Let that sink in!

Lol if Tim could control the weather it would rain only at night once a week in north bend. Just to keep his garden happy. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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48 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I can remember exactly Tim's very first comment to me.  I posted a picture of tree's I sprayed with water and they made a beautiful frozen ice sculpture.  He said word for word, you'd have to be clinically insane to do that to a tree. Hahaha he didn't know I was going to cut them down in the spring. 

I remember that pic.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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36 and clear.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I still have mine somewhere! I think it’s in the same box as my VHS snowstorm coverage from 1996! 

I love those old vids. Gameboy nostalgia fits in perfect with that. I actually recorded on VHS a newscast from the 96 event as well, but deleted it. I was living in the western side of Beaverton and it was so cold and windy that almost all my snow just blew away. Other areas of the Portland metro killed it. 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember that pic.

Track that sucker down. I would love to see it. I know central Oregon Mat has posted a few of those pics and they look spectacular, if not a little dangerous to pull off.

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13 minutes ago, Dave said:

Track that sucker down. I would love to see it. I know central Oregon Mat has posted a few of those pics and they look spectacular, if not a little dangerous to pull off.

I did it a bunch when I was a kid. It has to be in the mid 20's or colder for a good outcome.  Next time it gets in the teens I want to fire up my pressure washer and shoot it in the air.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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8 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I can never get any of these videos to play...  @iFred any suggestions on how to fix it?  I have been able to get some of mtep's videos to play but that seems to be the exception.

I’ll look into it

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Thursday is certainly looking like a cold day with highs in the low 40s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I did it a bunch when I was a kid. It has to be in the mid 20's or colder for a good outcome.  Next time it gets in the teens I want to fire up my pressure washer and shoot it in the air.

I can't remember the exact process, but with a pressure washer and something else you can produce actual snow when it's below freezing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If current trends continue Thursday night might be fun. Temps should drop into mid 30's pretty quick.

We'll have to see if that low can spin enough moisture up this far.  I look at this stuff as just being an appetizer at this point anyway.  I do like the ECMWF showing every low for the next 10 days being below 40 though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The Nooksack just hit a record crest this evening.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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