Veteran's Day Winter Storm Potential

[Tom]

It's official, we have our 1st winter storm tracking thread of the season!  Who's ready?  Is blocking causing some twists and turns?  Who is going to see snow?  Severe Wx?  High winds?  The long awaited storm is now in our sights and I like the model agreement coming in on the potential for this one to be a powerful system. 

The 0z Euro was showing wind gusts of 50+ mph in parts of the Plains/Upper MW with a rather large area of snowfall.

 

0z GEFS mean...

 

Isn't it fun to track our 1st storm now that models are in one hour earlier???  Was there someone that suggested this?  It begins....the season has finally arrived!!!

 

 

[Clinton]

It's great to have a storm to track, best time of the year!  Great call on this storm and the cold that's coming in behind it.

[jaster220]

We've had some autumn monsters this year to enjoy, but it will be nice to turn the corner to cold air involvement boosting the systems. A good November windstorm is always welcome. Tom's mentioned a cold T-day this year similar to 2013 which indeed was like winter in parts of SWMI where I worked (as was 2000 in S. Bend). The 2nd major LES event of that month had just hit a day or two earlier with some areas getting 16" totals. It was a fairly localized hit but the temps were sub-freezing with a foot or better of snow in places I commuted through that Wednesday before the holiday. Was just like NMI which has a far snowier late November climo than down here. Reading elsewhere about Duluth's list of biggest first storms, that Halloween storm dumped 3X the next nearest on their all-time 2-day total list. That's a very anomalous storm in my book. I'm not in the game on this one, but courtesy of where I was working at the time, 2013 delivered the all-time biggest amount for first snowstorm.

My personal biggest first snowstorms:

1. 17.1" 11-12-13
2. 15.0" 11-05-90
3. 12.5" 11-21-15

Good luck to those like Beltrami and FARwx who are in the hunt for a nice first snowstorm!

[Mr Marine Layer]

Hope it amounts to something good.

[james1976]

12z GFS with wrap around snow showers Friday down into IA. This system looks windy!

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Lol didn't see this thread oops

[IMoveALot_Weather]

00Z GFS looking way better in terms of thermals. Brings snow in the defo zone into the Northern part of my county.

Good news is that soundings pretty much indicate that rain and snow will be the only ptypes with this storm, no sleet/ice BS.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

From FGF

Quote

Several things come to mind when we look at the long term forecast.
First is cold temperatures, second is the potential for the first
accumulating snow of the season! We`ll get to the potential snow in
a second, as temperatures are the prelude to this mid week system.
Temperatures slowly begin to drop as we head through the long term
with the 40s Monday and Tuesday, before bottoming out in the low to
mid 30s there after. This will be thanks to a low pressure system
working its way across the Northern Plains bringing down the cold
air.

Now lets get to the topic thats on everyones mind. What is this mid
week storm system??

Let me answer that for you...A low pressure system that makes its way
into the plains mid week brings moisture in from the Pacific NW,
which is limited. Track of the system between ensembles and their
runs has varied over the past several day along with the exact
moisture content. Tracks have slowly begun to converge somewhere
over the central to Northern Plains. This indicates the chance of
precipitation for our neck of the woods. The low pressure digs into
the plains and ensembles indicate a surge of cold air through the
mid levels limited any melting potential of snow through the low to
mid layers. Surface temperature dictate the precipitation type for
eastern ND and west central/NW MN. The system looks to start out as
rain and transition to snow as temperature drop to at or below
freezing by Thursday and into Friday. How much rain falls, road
temperatures, and the transition to snow determines snow
accumulation potential across the area.

Cluster analysis continues to show low confidence in track as
deviations are noted between precipitation amounts for our area.
Probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of snow are 60-70%, with a worst
case scenario of 10-20% chance of exceeding 6 inches. Better chances
lie north of I 94 where temperatures look to fall to the freezing
mark first. Road temperatures play a role, with a majority of roads
still above freezing thanks to the warm temperatures this weekend
and the past several days which could hinder accumulations on the
roadways at times. Grassy surfaces look to see the best chance any
accumulation.

It looks like this could be the first accumulating snow of the
season, but just how much, the track, and moisture content continues
to be uncertain at this time. We will continue to monitor the latest
ensemble guidance over the next several day, but it looks like some
type of impacts are possible especially the further north you
head.

 

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

e20 still doing its thing lmao

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks like Fargo gets some snow, but how far down south will the snow go? Nebraska could get some late Thursday night.

[Tom]

0z UKIE laying down a nice foundation for the Upper MW and 1st snow of the season... @Beltrami Island gets crushed...

 

 

Then...the wrap around LES potential could ignite as the cold core ULL tracks thru the GL's...it'll feel like Winter next weekend!

 

 

0z GFS Kuchera a bit bonkers...reach for the stars!

 

[Tom]

0z Euro not as generous as the rest of the models...many will see their 1st flakes of the season...

 

 

 

0z EPS looks better...

[IMoveALot_Weather]

That Ukie gives me nightmarish flashbacks to last year. LOTS of storms where the Red River acted as a forcefield to accumulating snow.

[Beltrami Island]

I just don't buy how much wrap around QPF models show on the NW side of the surface or upper lows.  Models seem to always show significant amounts that never come to fruition be it snow in the winter or rain in warm season.  

I am expecting some flakes and light-moderate accumulation at most, lots of wind, and the arrival of some seasonable cold air.  

[Madtown]

Clipper on the heels of this Sunday looks to dump up here?!?!?!

[Clinton]

44 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Clipper on the heels of this Sunday looks to dump up here?!?!?!

18z Euro spreads some around.

[Madtown]

Euro total

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

Euro total

Staying too far east

[Tom]

0z Euro backing off totals to the East but still managing to deliver a pretty good early season hit for @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island...lake belts get it on the back end and then a rotating piece provides some "mood flakes" for a lot of peeps across the MW/GL's.  Could be something more substantial depending on if this secondary piece delivers a 2nd round of snowfall.

 

 

Actually, I just took a glance at the 0z EPS and its picking up on the secondary piece rotating around the base of the trough which has happened several times this season in our pattern.  2nd "boost" of snow could occur for MW peeps.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

06z GFS has that potent 2nd wave...

[james1976]

Ill be in Missouri fri-sat and driving home Sunday. Will I come home to snow on the ground?? Drive home could be interesting. 

[james1976]

Des Moines on the show potential for IA late Thursday-Friday and also 2nd piece of energy. Interesting wording on the wind as well.

Given the timing and looking at
BUFKIT soundings, much of this precipitation will fall in the
form of snow over northern into perhaps portions of central Iowa.
Accumulations will be generally under an inch with support from
the GEFS and EPS means and many of their ensemble members. Winds
from the northwest will really pick up later Thursday night into
Friday with BUFKIT soundings showing winds at the top of the mixed
layer around 40 knots. The ECWMF extreme forecast index`s trend
continues upward with growing confidence on an unusual wind event
given compared to its 20 year model climatology. Winds were raised
from initial guidance and wind gusts were boosted, though they
may still be underdone and could necessitate a wind advisory.

As the upper level closed low moves into the Great Lakes and
southeastern Canada Friday night and Saturday, precipitation will
come to an end and winds will decrease over Iowa. Deterministic
models all still indicate another fast moving, northwest flow
shortwave trough will plow through the area late Saturday night
into Sunday. Timing and placement vary, but this could yield
another round of light snow accumulations across portions of the
state. Winds will also be breezy as the system departs on Sunday.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

GFS is definitely way less bullish with the wraparound. Actually gives me twice as much with the Saturday clipper.

[Clinton]

12z GFS

Adding clipper

[james1976]

The clipper is starting to look more interesting than the first system.

[james1976]

I wonder if the clipper should be a separate thread. Looks unattached from the first system.

[Hawkeye]

11 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I wonder if the clipper should be a separate thread. Looks unattached from the first system.

I was going to say just use the November thread for now, but it appears a clipper thread has already been created.

[tStacsh]

Would've been buried in LES if this was just a little later in November and a little colder air.  4 straight days of favorable conditions for my area.     Still might see a nice coating even with the warmer lake and ground temps.  

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro. Snowy 2nd weekend for MN Deer (Rifle) in N.MN.  Makes it easier following a blood trail as long as it's not pounding.

[Hawkeye]

Models have consistently shown a significant band of rain (1-2") through central or eastern Iowa late Wednesday into early Thursday.  The global models continue to lean toward central Iowa while the meso models lean toward eastern Iowa.

[Tom]

0z Euro...one of the only models holding onto the idea of a sig snowfall for @FAR_Weather, but N MN seems locked in...it seems like its been quite a while since @Beltrami Islandand folks up there had an early season hit.  I remember the autumn seasons back in '16 or '17 where it was the Dakotas that kept getting hit but not sure if MN was in the receiving end as well.

 

 

A nice quick soaking rain heading for KC/IA peeps...

 

Not surprising, but our friend down in OK will prob see some more severe wx....that region has been a hot spot this Autumn...

[Tom]

0z EPS snow mean...

 

Hold on to your hats Friday!  I wouldn't be surprised to see Wind Advisories hoisted and with snow showers in the air across the MW, it'll feel like Winter has cometh to a place near you.

 

 

 

 

[Beltrami Island]

I am still hopeful, but skeptical for significant snowfall amounts imby.  Temps, air and ground really are not ideal for accumulations and in my experience the models are always to quick to transition from rain to snow. 

The hard cutoff to my south in the snow forecast does actually help my optimism.  My biggest snow events have these strong cutoffs right around Red Lake. 

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

47 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

I am still hopeful, but skeptical for significant snowfall amounts imby.  Temps, air and ground really are not ideal for accumulations and in my experience the models are always to quick to transition from rain to snow. 

The hard cutoff to my south in the snow forecast does actually help my optimism.  My biggest snow events have these strong cutoffs right around Red Lake. 

 

Definitely hoping you score big here. Whatever I get will melt next week, but I think you might be able to hold onto whatever you get.

[Beltrami Island]

21 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Definitely hoping you score big here. Whatever I get will melt next week, but I think you might be able to hold onto whatever you get.

I still have stinging memories of Nov 2017 probably affecting my feelings about this snow potential.  Had lots of snow and cold temps the first 3 weeks of the month building a solid snowpack 8-12" deep.  It felt like mid winter, then Thanksgiving weekend brought rain and 40s melting it all to the grass.  

[tStacsh]

Just 5 -10 degrees colder and I'd be looking at a foot of LES.  Hopefully the water stays warm and we get another system like this in late November/December.  

[IMoveALot_Weather]

From FGF

Quote

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
513 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-102130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle,
Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah,
Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh,
Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush,
Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake,
Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids,
Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham,
New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena,
Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando,
Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas,
Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton,
Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna,
Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro,
Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner,
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin
513 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...First Winter Weather Event of the Season...

Rain will overspread the area today. Temperatures in the mid 30s
in the Langdon North Dakota area of northeastern North Dakota may
bring mixed rain and snow to that specific area.

Tonight will see drier air move in with a break in the
precipitation for eastern North Dakota south of Hwy 2 and for
west central Minnesota. Meanwhile rain and snow is expected over
parts of northwestern Minnesota and along the North Dakota and
Manitoba border. Mixed precipitation will change to snow
overnight.

Thursday will see an area of snow spread south through the
afternoon as winds turn north to northwest and temperatures fall.
Snow and gusty north winds 25 to 40 mph expected Thursday night
before the snow ends Friday morning.

Uncertainties remain in regards to how much precipitation in the
form of snow will drop south through the area. It does appear the
highest chances for more than 4 inches of snow is along the
Canadian border.

Initially the snow may melt, but Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning will see cold enough temperatures so that travel may
become slick and hazardous.

 

[Beltrami Island]

I am really surprised with the conservative trend wrt public safety over the last couple years from the FGF office that I don't at least have a Winter Strom Watch issued with this point forecast.

[jaster220]

Interesting tid-bit from GRR's afd

Quote

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021

It seems like we have not had many fall storm systems this year and
this one is coming right on time. Some of the biggest fall storms
of all time in the Great Lakes have oddly all occurred from
November 9-11th (1913 White Hurricane, 1940 Armistice Day Storm,
1975 Fitzgerald Storm and 1998). This storm will not be close to
the level of those storms, but it will be a November Gale
nonetheless. This will only be the 4th Gale event in our area since
the start of September.

 

[Hawkeye]

It appears the globals may have won out over the meso models with regard to the rain around here.  All the models this morning have shifted the 1-2" rain band farther west into central/ne Iowa.  I should probably expect 0.50-1.00".

[jaster220]

SD first to pull the trigger..

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

---

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
326 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

SDZ007-008-011-019>023-102130-
/O.NEW.KABR.WS.A.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/
Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
Including the cities of Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Clark,
Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake
326 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 4 inches expected. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the
latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said:

I am really surprised with the conservative trend wrt public safety over the last couple years from the FGF office that I don't at least have a Winter Strom Watch issued with this point forecast.

Yeah, meanwhile ABR has a watch issued for Northeast SD. Night and day, these two offices.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Bad time for the Aberdeen radar to be down...

[IMoveALot_Weather]

WWA has been issued. Watch for Baudette.

Quote

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to noon CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at
dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling
5 1 1 in either state.

 

[james1976]

A lot of rain, wind and even lightning! Getting hit good. Unfortunately I took my rain gauge inside last week before the freezes and forgot to put it back out. Dang it!

[Clinton]

Strong line of storms moving in and winds are currently gusting to 45mph.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Light snow is already occurring from Bemidji to Park Rapids. I don't think that was supposed to happen this soon. Not that it really matters for me lol

[snowstorm83]

Bracing for my 9% of a trace! 

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Light snow is already occurring from Bemidji to Park Rapids. I don't think that was supposed to happen this soon. Not that it really matters for me lol

Glad to see winter is coming there. 

[Beltrami Island]

Change to snow is late and counting for me....

Main rain snow line still well into Canada on radar...