Tom Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 It's official, we have our 1st winter storm tracking thread of the season! Who's ready? Is blocking causing some twists and turns? Who is going to see snow? Severe Wx? High winds? The long awaited storm is now in our sights and I like the model agreement coming in on the potential for this one to be a powerful system. The 0z Euro was showing wind gusts of 50+ mph in parts of the Plains/Upper MW with a rather large area of snowfall. 0z GEFS mean... Isn't it fun to track our 1st storm now that models are in one hour earlier??? Was there someone that suggested this? It begins....the season has finally arrived!!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 It's great to have a storm to track, best time of the year! Great call on this storm and the cold that's coming in behind it. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 We've had some autumn monsters this year to enjoy, but it will be nice to turn the corner to cold air involvement boosting the systems. A good November windstorm is always welcome. Tom's mentioned a cold T-day this year similar to 2013 which indeed was like winter in parts of SWMI where I worked (as was 2000 in S. Bend). The 2nd major LES event of that month had just hit a day or two earlier with some areas getting 16" totals. It was a fairly localized hit but the temps were sub-freezing with a foot or better of snow in places I commuted through that Wednesday before the holiday. Was just like NMI which has a far snowier late November climo than down here. Reading elsewhere about Duluth's list of biggest first storms, that Halloween storm dumped 3X the next nearest on their all-time 2-day total list. That's a very anomalous storm in my book. I'm not in the game on this one, but courtesy of where I was working at the time, 2013 delivered the all-time biggest amount for first snowstorm. My personal biggest first snowstorms: 17.1" 11-12-13 15.0" 11-05-90 12.5" 11-21-15 Good luck to those like Beltrami and FARwx who are in the hunt for a nice first snowstorm! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Hope it amounts to something good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 12z GFS with wrap around snow showers Friday down into IA. This system looks windy! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 7, 2021 Report Share Posted November 7, 2021 Lol didn't see this thread oops 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 00Z GFS looking way better in terms of thermals. Brings snow in the defo zone into the Northern part of my county. Good news is that soundings pretty much indicate that rain and snow will be the only ptypes with this storm, no sleet/ice BS. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 From FGF Quote Several things come to mind when we look at the long term forecast. First is cold temperatures, second is the potential for the first accumulating snow of the season! We`ll get to the potential snow in a second, as temperatures are the prelude to this mid week system. Temperatures slowly begin to drop as we head through the long term with the 40s Monday and Tuesday, before bottoming out in the low to mid 30s there after. This will be thanks to a low pressure system working its way across the Northern Plains bringing down the cold air. Now lets get to the topic thats on everyones mind. What is this mid week storm system?? Let me answer that for you...A low pressure system that makes its way into the plains mid week brings moisture in from the Pacific NW, which is limited. Track of the system between ensembles and their runs has varied over the past several day along with the exact moisture content. Tracks have slowly begun to converge somewhere over the central to Northern Plains. This indicates the chance of precipitation for our neck of the woods. The low pressure digs into the plains and ensembles indicate a surge of cold air through the mid levels limited any melting potential of snow through the low to mid layers. Surface temperature dictate the precipitation type for eastern ND and west central/NW MN. The system looks to start out as rain and transition to snow as temperature drop to at or below freezing by Thursday and into Friday. How much rain falls, road temperatures, and the transition to snow determines snow accumulation potential across the area. Cluster analysis continues to show low confidence in track as deviations are noted between precipitation amounts for our area. Probabilities of exceeding 1 inch of snow are 60-70%, with a worst case scenario of 10-20% chance of exceeding 6 inches. Better chances lie north of I 94 where temperatures look to fall to the freezing mark first. Road temperatures play a role, with a majority of roads still above freezing thanks to the warm temperatures this weekend and the past several days which could hinder accumulations on the roadways at times. Grassy surfaces look to see the best chance any accumulation. It looks like this could be the first accumulating snow of the season, but just how much, the track, and moisture content continues to be uncertain at this time. We will continue to monitor the latest ensemble guidance over the next several day, but it looks like some type of impacts are possible especially the further north you head. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 e20 still doing its thing lmao 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 Looks like Fargo gets some snow, but how far down south will the snow go? Nebraska could get some late Thursday night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 0z UKIE laying down a nice foundation for the Upper MW and 1st snow of the season... @Beltrami Island gets crushed... Then...the wrap around LES potential could ignite as the cold core ULL tracks thru the GL's...it'll feel like Winter next weekend! 0z GFS Kuchera a bit bonkers...reach for the stars! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 0z Euro not as generous as the rest of the models...many will see their 1st flakes of the season... 0z EPS looks better... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 That Ukie gives me nightmarish flashbacks to last year. LOTS of storms where the Red River acted as a forcefield to accumulating snow. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 8, 2021 Report Share Posted November 8, 2021 I just don't buy how much wrap around QPF models show on the NW side of the surface or upper lows. Models seem to always show significant amounts that never come to fruition be it snow in the winter or rain in warm season. I am expecting some flakes and light-moderate accumulation at most, lots of wind, and the arrival of some seasonable cold air. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Clipper on the heels of this Sunday looks to dump up here?!?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, Madtown said: Clipper on the heels of this Sunday looks to dump up here?!?!?! 18z Euro spreads some around. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Euro total 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Madtown said: Euro total Staying too far east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 0z Euro backing off totals to the East but still managing to deliver a pretty good early season hit for @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island...lake belts get it on the back end and then a rotating piece provides some "mood flakes" for a lot of peeps across the MW/GL's. Could be something more substantial depending on if this secondary piece delivers a 2nd round of snowfall. Actually, I just took a glance at the 0z EPS and its picking up on the secondary piece rotating around the base of the trough which has happened several times this season in our pattern. 2nd "boost" of snow could occur for MW peeps. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 06z GFS has that potent 2nd wave... 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Ill be in Missouri fri-sat and driving home Sunday. Will I come home to snow on the ground?? Drive home could be interesting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Des Moines on the show potential for IA late Thursday-Friday and also 2nd piece of energy. Interesting wording on the wind as well. Given the timing and looking at BUFKIT soundings, much of this precipitation will fall in the form of snow over northern into perhaps portions of central Iowa. Accumulations will be generally under an inch with support from the GEFS and EPS means and many of their ensemble members. Winds from the northwest will really pick up later Thursday night into Friday with BUFKIT soundings showing winds at the top of the mixed layer around 40 knots. The ECWMF extreme forecast index`s trend continues upward with growing confidence on an unusual wind event given compared to its 20 year model climatology. Winds were raised from initial guidance and wind gusts were boosted, though they may still be underdone and could necessitate a wind advisory. As the upper level closed low moves into the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada Friday night and Saturday, precipitation will come to an end and winds will decrease over Iowa. Deterministic models all still indicate another fast moving, northwest flow shortwave trough will plow through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. Timing and placement vary, but this could yield another round of light snow accumulations across portions of the state. Winds will also be breezy as the system departs on Sunday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 GFS is definitely way less bullish with the wraparound. Actually gives me twice as much with the Saturday clipper. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 12z GFS Adding clipper 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 The clipper is starting to look more interesting than the first system. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 I wonder if the clipper should be a separate thread. Looks unattached from the first system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, james1976 said: I wonder if the clipper should be a separate thread. Looks unattached from the first system. I was going to say just use the November thread for now, but it appears a clipper thread has already been created. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Would've been buried in LES if this was just a little later in November and a little colder air. 4 straight days of favorable conditions for my area. Still might see a nice coating even with the warmer lake and ground temps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 18Z Euro. Snowy 2nd weekend for MN Deer (Rifle) in N.MN. Makes it easier following a blood trail as long as it's not pounding. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Models have consistently shown a significant band of rain (1-2") through central or eastern Iowa late Wednesday into early Thursday. The global models continue to lean toward central Iowa while the meso models lean toward eastern Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 0z Euro...one of the only models holding onto the idea of a sig snowfall for @FAR_Weather, but N MN seems locked in...it seems like its been quite a while since @Beltrami Islandand folks up there had an early season hit. I remember the autumn seasons back in '16 or '17 where it was the Dakotas that kept getting hit but not sure if MN was in the receiving end as well. A nice quick soaking rain heading for KC/IA peeps... Not surprising, but our friend down in OK will prob see some more severe wx....that region has been a hot spot this Autumn... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 0z EPS snow mean... Hold on to your hats Friday! I wouldn't be surprised to see Wind Advisories hoisted and with snow showers in the air across the MW, it'll feel like Winter has cometh to a place near you. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 I am still hopeful, but skeptical for significant snowfall amounts imby. Temps, air and ground really are not ideal for accumulations and in my experience the models are always to quick to transition from rain to snow. The hard cutoff to my south in the snow forecast does actually help my optimism. My biggest snow events have these strong cutoffs right around Red Lake. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 47 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: I am still hopeful, but skeptical for significant snowfall amounts imby. Temps, air and ground really are not ideal for accumulations and in my experience the models are always to quick to transition from rain to snow. The hard cutoff to my south in the snow forecast does actually help my optimism. My biggest snow events have these strong cutoffs right around Red Lake. Definitely hoping you score big here. Whatever I get will melt next week, but I think you might be able to hold onto whatever you get. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Definitely hoping you score big here. Whatever I get will melt next week, but I think you might be able to hold onto whatever you get. I still have stinging memories of Nov 2017 probably affecting my feelings about this snow potential. Had lots of snow and cold temps the first 3 weeks of the month building a solid snowpack 8-12" deep. It felt like mid winter, then Thanksgiving weekend brought rain and 40s melting it all to the grass. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Just 5 -10 degrees colder and I'd be looking at a foot of LES. Hopefully the water stays warm and we get another system like this in late November/December. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 From FGF Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 513 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-102130- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier- Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks- Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 513 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 ...First Winter Weather Event of the Season... Rain will overspread the area today. Temperatures in the mid 30s in the Langdon North Dakota area of northeastern North Dakota may bring mixed rain and snow to that specific area. Tonight will see drier air move in with a break in the precipitation for eastern North Dakota south of Hwy 2 and for west central Minnesota. Meanwhile rain and snow is expected over parts of northwestern Minnesota and along the North Dakota and Manitoba border. Mixed precipitation will change to snow overnight. Thursday will see an area of snow spread south through the afternoon as winds turn north to northwest and temperatures fall. Snow and gusty north winds 25 to 40 mph expected Thursday night before the snow ends Friday morning. Uncertainties remain in regards to how much precipitation in the form of snow will drop south through the area. It does appear the highest chances for more than 4 inches of snow is along the Canadian border. Initially the snow may melt, but Thursday afternoon into Friday morning will see cold enough temperatures so that travel may become slick and hazardous. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 I am really surprised with the conservative trend wrt public safety over the last couple years from the FGF office that I don't at least have a Winter Strom Watch issued with this point forecast. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Interesting tid-bit from GRR's afd Quote .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM EST Wed Nov 10 2021 It seems like we have not had many fall storm systems this year and this one is coming right on time. Some of the biggest fall storms of all time in the Great Lakes have oddly all occurred from November 9-11th (1913 White Hurricane, 1940 Armistice Day Storm, 1975 Fitzgerald Storm and 1998). This storm will not be close to the level of those storms, but it will be a November Gale nonetheless. This will only be the 4th Gale event in our area since the start of September. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 It appears the globals may have won out over the meso models with regard to the rain around here. All the models this morning have shifted the 1-2" rain band farther west into central/ne Iowa. I should probably expect 0.50-1.00". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.