jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 SD first to pull the trigger.. Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 326 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 SDZ007-008-011-019>023-102130- /O.NEW.KABR.WS.A.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/ Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake 326 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Beltrami Island said: I am really surprised with the conservative trend wrt public safety over the last couple years from the FGF office that I don't at least have a Winter Strom Watch issued with this point forecast. Yeah, meanwhile ABR has a watch issued for Northeast SD. Night and day, these two offices. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Bad time for the Aberdeen radar to be down... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 WWA has been issued. Watch for Baudette. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From noon Thursday to noon CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at dot.nd.gov/travel and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 A lot of rain, wind and even lightning! Getting hit good. Unfortunately I took my rain gauge inside last week before the freezes and forgot to put it back out. Dang it! 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Strong line of storms moving in and winds are currently gusting to 45mph. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Light snow is already occurring from Bemidji to Park Rapids. I don't think that was supposed to happen this soon. Not that it really matters for me lol 2 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Bracing for my 9% of a trace! 1 2 5 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Light snow is already occurring from Bemidji to Park Rapids. I don't think that was supposed to happen this soon. Not that it really matters for me lol Glad to see winter is coming there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Change to snow is late and counting for me.... Main rain snow line still well into Canada on radar... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP. Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN. Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 0z Euro... This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT". The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks. Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior. High Rez models spitting out some big #'s.... 0z GFS... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Tom said: Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP. Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN. Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 0z Euro... This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT". The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks. Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior. High Rez models spitting out some big #'s.... 0z GFS... Baudette is the 13 up in Northern Minnesota on that Euro. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: Bracing for my 9% of a trace! https://youtu.be/mN7LW0Y00kE 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Baudette is the 13 up in Northern Minnesota on that Euro. Nice! He's reeling in a Big Dog from all indications...glad to see at least one member on here who's going to get shallacked! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 23 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: https://youtu.be/mN7LW0Y00kE Love this tune! Let it Snow, Let it Snow....Let it Snow! This storm will kick start the N Stream Wave train... 0z Euro snow depth....#buildtheglacier 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 My rain total is 0.80", so the models were correct before they dried us out at the last minute. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 It was more bark than bite last night at my house. I only recorded .3 inches, the heavier amounts were off to my west where KC set it's daily rainfall record. Amounts were generally a 1/2-2 inches across the area. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 I actually saw stars at 5:30. Now it's all clouds with flurries. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, Clinton said: It was more bark than bite last night at my house. I only recorded .3 inches, the heavier amounts were off to my west where KC set it's daily rainfall record. Amounts were generally a 1/2-2 inches across the area. What a difference a year makes! Man, your area and KC has been a magnet. Hoping for this to continue deeper into the cold season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Just noticed im only 1 county away from the winter weather advisory Friday. DMX said it may need expanded. Bring it! 1-2" and 45mph wind gusts. Could be a fun morning! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Quite the mess this morning. Can't even really tell how much it snowed vs rained vs ground melted snow. Side roads are a sloppy slushy mess. All the maps have me in the bullseye for this one on the US side. I think in 3-4 hours is when the hammer of snow is supposed to get going, we'll see. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 GRR bullish on snow amounts here. Several shots at 2-4 inches through Monday. Gonna turn white here. Melting will be significant but not enough to make it not look like winter. Giddy up. 2 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 58 minutes ago, james1976 said: Just noticed im only 1 county away from the winter weather advisory Friday. DMX said it may need expanded. Bring it! 1-2" and 45mph wind gusts. Could be a fun morning! Happy B Day bud! I think its today, right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Zip zilch nada expected for Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 There it is...I sorta thought this one would turn into a Blizzard...while not a traditional looking blitz, this just adds more ammo to the what this season could look like... Quote Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-111800- /O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KABR.BZ.W.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/ Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant- Hamlin-Deuel- Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Britton, Sisseton, Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake 347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. In Minnesota, the latest road conditions can be obtained at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1. In South Dakota, the latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Alerts for: Red Lake - Ear Falls Quote Warnings 4:54 AM EST Thursday 11 November 2021 Winter storm warning in effect for: Ear Falls - Perrault Falls - Western Lac Seul Red Lake - Woodland Caribou Park First winter storm of the season expected to continue into Friday. A developing low pressure system is bringing heavy snow to parts of northwestern Ontario. The heavy snow will taper to lighter snow or flurries Friday afternoon or evening. The snow will be accompanied by strong winds at times which could result in reduced visibilities due to blowing snow. Total accumulations of 25 to 40 cm are possible by Friday evening however regions in the swath of heaviest snow could see local amounts of up to 50 cm. Driving conditions will be treacherous into Friday. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ONstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm. Up to 50cm = 20 inches of wet snow. In comparison, this same area had nearly bare ground all of last winter. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: Alerts for: Red Lake - Ear Falls Up to 50cm = 20 inches of wet snow. In comparison, this same area had nearly bare ground all of last winter. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tom said: Good luck! Not my location, it's the area N/NE of Lake of the Woods Canadian side. Where the heaviest snowfall for this storm is likely to be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said: Not my location, it's the area N/NE of Lake of the Woods Canadian side. Where the heaviest snowfall for this storm is likely to be. What is your grid forecast looking like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 My point forecast at the moment: Detailed Forecast Veterans Day Snow. Steady temperature around 33. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight Snow. Patchy blowing snow before 11pm, then patchy blowing snow after 2am. Low around 26. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Patchy blowing snow before 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: Happy B Day bud! I think its today, right? It is today. Thank you! Taking tomorrow off. Hoping for a nice lil bday gift from mother nature with snow and wind! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: There it is...I sorta thought this one would turn into a Blizzard...while not a traditional looking blitz, this just adds more ammo to the what this season could look like... Like I said yesterday, night and day differences between 2 offices. I'm in a WWA despite getting equal totals and similar wind. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 I'm liking how the radar is looking up in the Dakotas. Looks like it has its eyes set on northern IA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, james1976 said: I'm liking how the radar is looking up in the Dakotas. Looks like it has its eyes set on northern IA. Hoping to overachieve. The dry air looks to be filling in, but I'm still not getting anything more than flurries on the surface. 36°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Of course, it's kinda hard to overachieve when the dry slot is hovering over me. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Snowfall rate is finally starting to pick up. Been snowing lightly most of the day but not fast enough to overcome the warm ground and accumulate. NWS says 3-5" daytime accumulation, its going to have to start dumping at 1" accumulation per hour to be close to 3" accumulation. At 33f that is very heavy snowfall rate. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 10 hours ago, Tom said: Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP. Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN. Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 0z Euro... This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT". The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks. Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior. High Rez models spitting out some big #'s.... 0z GFS... The way this Low stalls and spins is perfect for the LES belts. GRR mentioning great moisture and lift the entire 4 day period (re-enforced by the clipper wave). NMI should be cold enough with their higher elevations raking white gold. My co-worker who's fam has a place up there said Gaylord had a foot with last week's little WWA event. Can't imagine they do worse with this set-up. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 I'm looking forward to seeing some flakes fly tomorrow. 3k NAM continues to be the most robust in Eastern Iowa. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 For the first time tonight, I'm seeing steady flakes without asking myself "are those flakes or is that mist?" 34*F. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: For the first time tonight, I'm seeing steady flakes without asking myself "are those flakes or is that mist?" 34*F. was just thinking you should be snowing.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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