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Veteran's Day Winter Storm Potential


Tom
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Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP.  Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN.  

 

2.gif

 

Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT".  The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks.  Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior.

5.gif

 

 

High Rez models spitting out some big #'s....

image.png

 

0z GFS...

image.png

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP.  Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN.  

 

2.gif

 

Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT".  The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks.  Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior.

5.gif

 

 

High Rez models spitting out some big #'s....

image.png

 

0z GFS...

image.png

Baudette is the 13 up in Northern Minnesota on that Euro.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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4 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Bracing for my 9% of a trace! 

Tab3FileL.png?1ed05cea3bb4318c0c02690d0b6e59e0

https://youtu.be/mN7LW0Y00kE

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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My rain total is 0.80", so the models were correct before they dried us out at the last minute.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I actually saw stars at 5:30. Now it's all clouds with flurries.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It was more bark than bite last night at my house.  I only recorded .3 inches, the heavier amounts were off to my west where KC set it's daily rainfall record.  Amounts were generally a 1/2-2 inches across the area.

View image on Twitter

What a difference a year makes!  Man, your area and KC has been a magnet.  Hoping for this to continue deeper into the cold season.

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Quite the mess this morning.  Can't even really tell how much it snowed vs rained vs ground melted snow.  Side roads are a sloppy slushy mess.  All the maps have me in the bullseye for this one on the US side.  I think in 3-4 hours is when the hammer of snow is supposed to get going, we'll see.

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58 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Just noticed im only 1 county away from the winter weather advisory Friday. DMX said it may need expanded. Bring it! 1-2" and 45mph wind gusts. Could be a fun morning!

Happy B Day bud!  I think its today, right?

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There it is...I sorta thought this one would turn into a Blizzard...while not a traditional looking blitz, this just adds more ammo to the what this season could look like...

 

 

 

image.png

 

 

 

Quote

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-111800-
/O.UPG.KABR.WS.A.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KABR.BZ.W.0002.211112T0000Z-211113T0000Z/
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-
Hamlin-Deuel-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Ortonville, Britton, Sisseton,
Webster, Clark, Watertown, Milbank, Hayti, and Clear Lake
347 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  2 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast South Dakota and west central
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

In Minnesota, the latest road conditions can be obtained at
511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1. In South Dakota, the latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

 

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Alerts for: Red Lake - Ear Falls

 

Quote

 

Warnings

4:54 AM EST Thursday 11 November 2021
Winter storm warning in effect for:

  • Ear Falls - Perrault Falls - Western Lac Seul
  • Red Lake - Woodland Caribou Park

First winter storm of the season expected to continue into Friday.

A developing low pressure system is bringing heavy snow to parts of northwestern Ontario. The heavy snow will taper to lighter snow or flurries Friday afternoon or evening.

The snow will be accompanied by strong winds at times which could result in reduced visibilities due to blowing snow.

Total accumulations of 25 to 40 cm are possible by Friday evening however regions in the swath of heaviest snow could see local amounts of up to 50 cm.

Driving conditions will be treacherous into Friday.

Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ONstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.

 

 

Up to 50cm = 20 inches of wet snow.  In comparison, this same area had nearly bare ground all of last winter.  

 

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My point forecast at the moment:

Detailed Forecast

Veterans Day
Snow. Steady temperature around 33. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. Patchy blowing snow before 11pm, then patchy blowing snow after 2am. Low around 26. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Friday
Snow likely, mainly before 3pm. Patchy blowing snow before 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
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2 hours ago, Tom said:

There it is...I sorta thought this one would turn into a Blizzard...while not a traditional looking blitz, this just adds more ammo to the what this season could look like...

 

 

 

image.png

 

 

 

 

Like I said yesterday, night and day differences between 2 offices. I'm in a WWA despite getting equal totals and similar wind.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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15 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I'm liking how the radar is looking up in the Dakotas. Looks like it has its eyes set on northern IA.

Hoping to overachieve. The dry air looks to be filling in, but I'm still not getting anything more than flurries on the surface. 36°F.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Of course, it's kinda hard to overachieve when the dry slot is hovering over me.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Snowfall rate is finally starting to pick up.  Been snowing lightly most of the day but not fast enough to overcome the warm ground and accumulate.  NWS says 3-5" daytime accumulation, its going to have to start dumping at 1" accumulation per hour to be close to 3" accumulation.  At 33f that is very heavy snowfall rate.    

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10 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, the long awaited Vet's Day storm is upon us and it's almost show time for the Northwoods....both northern and southern stream pieces are about to merge together over the W GL's and deepen into one solid and massive SLP.  Current meso analysis shows the main SLP forming just SE of MSP near Rochester, MN.  

 

2.gif

 

Not sure how close this is to @Beltrami Island, but nearly all the globals show a sig snowfall for his area. 

 

0z Euro...

1.png

 

This is an interesting storm as it is forming from two separate pieces of energy and while I was flipping through the surface maps this morning it caught my attention to the "SLOT".  The LRC's hot spot near the TX PanHandle has been one of the main storm tracks.  Anyway, I just wanted to point that out as this storm turns into a beast later today dropping SLP into the 980's and stalling out near W Lake Superior.

5.gif

 

 

High Rez models spitting out some big #'s....

image.png

 

0z GFS...

image.png

The way this Low stalls and spins is perfect for the LES belts. GRR mentioning great moisture and lift the entire 4 day period (re-enforced by the clipper wave). NMI should be cold enough with their higher elevations raking white gold. My co-worker who's fam has a place up there said Gaylord had a foot with last week's little WWA event. Can't imagine they do worse with this set-up.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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For the first time tonight, I'm seeing steady flakes without asking myself "are those flakes or is that mist?" 34*F.

  • Snow 5

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

For the first time tonight, I'm seeing steady flakes without asking myself "are those flakes or is that mist?" 34*F.

was just thinking you should be snowing..

 

2021-11-11  7pm.jpg

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Accumulation is finally starting here. Took forever. 32*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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My first snow flakes happened this evening on my way home from my parent's. Happy Birthday to me! It was like Mother Nature was handing me a gift. Very windy drive home with rain showers that turned to snow. I was on phone with my brother and said "its snowingggg"

In a lull now but the snow shower/wind  should kick up later tonight. Sioux City had 50mph gusts earlier. 

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Pretty big dud here. I measured 1.2" and the accumulating stuff is done. At least there's wind to make it interesting. 26°F.

20211112_075203.jpg

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Overall agree this was a dud.  Bark worse than bite.  Biggest issue was yesterday it snowed pretty much all day without no accumulation, snow in the air but rain practically.  Once it cooled off around sunset last night and it finally started to accumulate, the snow had much less qpf than models previously showed.  I don't know if its everywhere or just particular to my area, but moisture on the NW side of storms is way overdone consistently on all models, from the latest high res Euro to the lowest res NAM.  This time was no exception.

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The snow showers here have been underwhelming, plus the air and ground are too warm.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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36 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

37 and rain here.  Look at that Radar in SWMI!!!  ugh.  Hope it changes over this evening before the pulse dies down.  

Had a brief few minutes of big snow flakes mixed with in with the rain so far. Otherwise mostly just rain.

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Squally just offshore in Chicago. Wow

Quote
Special Marine Warning
LMZ741>745-779-122200-
/O.NEW.KLOT.MA.W.0049.211112T2031Z-211112T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Special Marine Warning
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville
231 PM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...

  Nearshore Waters from Wilmette Harbor to Calumet Harbor...
  Nearshore Waters from Calumet Harbor to Michigan City...
  Open Waters from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City out to Mid
Lake...

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 230 PM CST, a band of snow with strong winds and low visibility
  was located near Midway Airport, or 14 nm west of 31st Street
  Harbor, moving east at 30 knots.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 40 knots and visibility below one quarter
           mile.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and
           suddenly higher waves.

* Locations impacted include...
  Harrison-Dever Crib, Wilmette Harbor, 31st Street Harbor, Monroe
  Harbor, Burns Harbor, Calumet Harbor, Indiana Harbor, Montrose
  Harbor, Burnham Harbor, Hammond Marina, Jackson Park Harbor and
  Belmont Harbor.

LAT...LON 4162 8733 4164 8743 4168 8743 4167 8744
      4169 8750 4183 8760 4189 8762 4189 8760
      4190 8762 4208 8768 4211 8760 4212 8696
      4179 8697 4179 8696 4172 8691 4163 8716
      4162 8732 4161 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 252DEG 31KT 4175 8790

HAIL...0.00IN
WIND...40KTS

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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