Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Since this looks to be a better event for many than Veterans Day. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 This morning's GFS and Canadian are robust with the weekend clipper. Meanwhile, the UK barely shows any clipper at all. Last night's Euro was much weaker than its previous run, but so was the GFS and it came back strong this morning. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 This morning's Euro is a bit stronger again, but also much farther northeast. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 It at least has the clipper for me this time! 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Could make for some snowy football games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Lousy forecast for 2 to 5 pm in Green Bay on Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Interesting clipper. Looks like it could provide some flakes here on Sunday. Daytime highs will be well BN (mainly in the 30s). 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 It looks like my area might be in for more than just a few flakes as I earlier thought. NOAA suggests something more than snowshowers or flurries: The large/deep 500 MB low/trough will be slow to depart the Great Lakes region over the Weekend, and the cold west-northwest flow coming off Lake Michigan still may be sufficient to generate isolated-scattered snow showers from time to time. Will be watching a clipper like system for potential accumulating snow, which could arrive by Sunday. This system will tend to re-enforce the cold air in place, so even if it dives southeast through the Ohio River Valley (GFS/Canadian), Lake effect will likely become enhanced for a period (see 12z UKMET). Otherwise, the first widespread light snowfall is possible if the clipper decides to take a farther north track (see 12z EURO). Not surprising, wide range of solutions seen in the 12z Euro solutions...stay tuned. @jaster220:even GRR office is onboard w this! 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 Tonight's GFS and Euro are very weak. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 8 hours ago, Hawkeye said: Tonight's GFS and Euro are very weak. That's how most clippers seem to trend. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: That's how most clippers seem to trend. Yep, Hybrids>clippers 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 10, 2021 Report Share Posted November 10, 2021 At least my office is talking about the potential, even if it doesn't materialize this time around. Quote Scattered lake effect rain/snow showers persist into Sunday as a weak fast-moving shortwave drops out of the Canadian Prairie into the central Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. There continues to be spread in the exact track among tonight`s runs with the GFS and Canadian taking a southerly route into the Ohio Valley and the Euro taking a northerly track more or less directly over SE MI. A more southerly track will limit potential snowfall for the area (aside from enhancing the lake effect response) whereas the Euro track would lead to our first widespread accumulating snowfall. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 GFS is much more potent with this recent run. Would be a nice early hit for my area. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 SMI could look festive on Sunday. Not expecting a lot of accumulations. A coating cannot be ruled out though. Temps will be too warm as they hover above freezing for the majority of the day. Nevertheless, snow is looking likely for now. "Tis The Season" y'all. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: SMI could look festive on Sunday. Not expecting a lot of accumulations. A coating cannot be ruled out though. Temps will be too warm as they hover above freezing for the majority of the day. Nevertheless, snow is looking likely for now. "Tis The Season" y'all. GFS wants to give you an inch or two. That would be a nice little appetizer for ya. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Clinton said: GFS wants to give you an inch or two. That would be a nice little appetizer for ya. Indeed. Perhaps an overachiever in the works??!! It will be an interesting weather day. Btw: have ya noticed how temps in the long run have trended colder and colder. Any warmth has been terminated!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 28 minutes ago, Niko said: Indeed. Perhaps an overachiever in the works??!! It will be an interesting weather day. Btw: have ya noticed how temps in the long run have trended colder and colder. Any warmth has been terminated!!! Yes it's looking good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 Euro is stronger again, drops a few inches from eastern ND to Minneapolis to southern Wisconsin. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 11, 2021 Report Share Posted November 11, 2021 18z GFS really strengthens this system as it gets into Southern Wisconsin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 18Z GFS shows a 1-2inch snowfall for SMI. Interesting scenario shaping up. Lets see what other models predict. Nothing to go crazy over, but, its looking like the first snowfall of the season, which I rather it be on the light side. These amounts are just about perfect for mid month. Save the doozy ones for late November and beyond. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Hey Everyone!! glad to see a lot of us tracking some snow!!! Hope everyone is ready for a great winter!! 4 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 KMKE is even talking lake effect snow possibilities! https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 [Quote]The main story with this event is the likelihood that it will be mostly, if not all, snow. Although surface temperatures may climb above freezing Sunday afternoon, steep low level lapse rates will likely mean only a very shallow layer of above freezing temperatures. This suggests mostly snow with maybe some rain mixing with any higher temperatures reaching into the upper 30s. These lapse rates being fairly steep could also indicate potential for some banding and more convective snow. The track is also notable with this event as recent models suggest the surface low could track right through southern Wisconsin, though there remains some uncertainty. This would likely bring northeast flow for at least a part of this event. Given lake temperatures in the low to mid 50s we could end up seeing lake to 850mb temperature differences in the 15-18 degree range. This would be plenty large enough for a period of lake enhancement to potentially bump snow totals along the shoreline and just inland. Overall snow totals are expected to be relatively light at this point, but if we see a bump in QPF amounts as mentioned earlier we could see those amounts increase as we get closer to the event. Highest amounts would likely be along the shoreline where lake enhancement would have the largest effect. There remain uncertainties in timing and track among other areas but the big picture is starting to become a bit clearer with this event.[Quote] 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 NOAA: A lot to sort through in the next couple of days as synoptic support is expected to be great enough to support a potential for a very dynamic system over the cwa even though it expected to remain progressive. The obstacle to predictability with this Sunday forecast is that members of the 00Z EPS remain all over the board with very little agreement on the track of the system. Depth of the upper level trough and magnitude of potential vorticity suggests this is a system to monitor. For messaging purposes the potential definitely exists for a widespread inch or more of snow late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. A lot of moving parts but precipitation should begin in the form of rain before transitioning to a mix with loss of daytime heating. Exit region of the target upper level jet packet and strong absolute vorticity energy is not expected to arrive off of the Pacific until after 00Z Saturday. Thus, big model shifts/track adjustments will probably be ongoing until the full system gets sampled 12Z Saturday morning. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Looks to have taken a southern track! 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 It's a clipper Clarence, so anything can happen, but DTX thinking a legit snowfall may be on tap here Sat night/early Sunday: Quote There is high confidence in precipitation type as a snow. The forecast sounding in the operational runs are a very cold one even for the daylight hours with the 1.0 to 5.0 kft agl layer in the -4 to -6 C range. Still tough to see the amount of variance with regards to ptype amongst the ensemble members of the old EPS suite. Peak of the precipitation (snowfall rates) appears between 15-22Z Sunday just as frontal surface at 700mb slides overhead. Consensus of the models suggests a safe forecast of around 0.20 of an inch. Separation of the thermal wave off of the main baroclinic zone well south of the state limits any higher end solution for precipitation amounts. Respecting the cold sounding with .20 liquid equivalent suggests snow amounts of around 2 inches will be possible by Sunday. Thinking some slushy snow could accumulate on the roadways in the rates, but will melt with time. The full upper level jet packet and shortwave is expected to be sampled by 12Z Saturday morning so some improvements to predictability may occur. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 NAM KCH going bonkers in the OHV Lwr Lks with this thing. Is my hand already hot here? Right outta the gate? https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021111300&fh=51&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 0z Euro...models have trended N around these parts but looking better for @FAR_Weather and north side of MSP into C/N Wisco... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 @Tom That Euro looks more seasonally realistic ofc - 1" of melting stuff around here to set a wintry mood. Glad you posted tho. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 NOAA: Attention then turns to a shortwave feature that has now made it inland across southern British Columbia and Alberta, which will deepen and travel east across North Dakota. A strengthening low pressure system will develop as a result, with this clipper system progressing east into Wisconsin by Sunday 12Z. Confidence remains high regarding the track of this system, with excellent model convergence observed over the past 48 hours. This system will push east into Michigan between 12-18Z and will exit SE MI by 00Z Monday and will bring the likely first accumulating widespread snow event to Michigan for the season. Btw: This clipper type system is excellent in terms of putting ya in the holiday spirit. This is looking like an 1-3" event, which is perfection for mid November standards. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 I'm liking the way radar looks. The only concern with a potential north shift is upper air thermals. Gotta keep the warm front away. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 GEM targets the Fargo to DL corridor... So let's go GEM! It's been right before. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Flakes are finally starting. 27°F. 5 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1" so far. 5 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 looks farther north than I was thinking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Last nights now is for the most part all gone now. There is still snow on most roofs and there are patches of snow on the ground here and there. For what it is worth parts of west Michigan are in a Winter Weather Advisory. The NWS call is for a general 1 to 3" of possible snow fall. My thinking is that it may just be too warm for that much snow to acclimate, it may fall but not stick. We shall see. Cloudy and 39 here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Madtown said: looks farther north than I was thinking? Yup, was about to say NAM is gonna win. Low looks like it'll pass right over me. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Precip is starting back up here and it's graupel. The SLP is gonna pass right over me. 27°F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Up to 1.6" with that last band. I'm in the eye now, let's get to 2. 1 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Must be getting nice and white. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Must be getting nice and white. Snow tends to do that. 3 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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