September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I don't know, don't care.

Then why did you bring him up???? :(

[Deweydog]

Then why did you bring him up???? :(

He went after my little guy and upset him! Mama bears will do everything in their power to protect their young, ornery cold enthusiast kiddos!

[Jesse]

He went after my little guy and upset him! Mama bears will do everything in their power to protect their young, ornery cold enthusiast kiddos!

Love you too Dewey.

[James Jones]

Getting anything close to a cool September is a tall order in our new climate. This year might have a shot, but it won't be easy, and it won't be without its share of impressive torching scattered throughout.

September has warmed up quite a bit during our period of record. During the first 30 years of observation in Portland (1875-1904), the average September high was 71.2 degrees, which seems ridiculously cool compared to the stuff we've been seeing in recent years (our 1981-2010 average September high is 4.6 degrees warmer than the first 30 years of observation). We've only had one September so far this century to match that old average (71.2 in 2004), and you have to go back to 1986 for the last time we had a September with a cooler average high than that.

 

Of course, we're comparing two different locations, and UHI is obviously a bigger factor now than it was then, so the numbers could be skewed a little. 

[Jesse]

September has warmed up quite a bit during our period of record. During the first 30 years of observation in Portland (1875-1904), the average September high was 71.2 degrees, which seems ridiculously cool compared to the stuff we've been seeing in recent years (our 1981-2010 average September high is 4.6 degrees warmer than the first 30 years of observation). We've only had one September so far this century to match that old average (71.2 in 2004), and you have to go back to 1986 for the last time we had a September with a cooler average high than that.

 

Of course, we're comparing two different locations, and UHI is obviously a bigger factor now than it was then, so the numbers could be skewed a little.

Good post.

 

Months like September and January are canaries in the coal mine.

[BLI snowman]

9-11-08 is truly the day that changed America forever.  

 

Since 2008, the years that haven't hit 90 on 9/11 (2012, 2014) were both followed by crapstick winters. All the years that have (2008, 2009, 2011, 2013) at least had some fun winter weather at some point. 

 

Some major food for thought!!

 

EDIT: I forgot about 2010. Hmm, that winter was sort of a tweener down here.

[Jesse]

Since 2008, the years that haven't hit 90 on 9/11 (2012, 2014) were both followed by crapstick winters. All the years that have (2008, 2009, 2011, 2013) at least had some fun winter weather at some point.

 

Some major food for thought!!

 

EDIT: I forgot about 2010. Hmm, that winter was sort of a tweener down here.

I liked 2010-11. Coolish overall with two historic cold spells, one early season and one late season, followed by my favorite spring ever.

[BLI snowman]

September has warmed up quite a bit during our period of record. During the first 30 years of observation in Portland (1875-1904), the average September high was 71.2 degrees, which seems ridiculously cool compared to the stuff we've been seeing in recent years (our 1981-2010 average September high is 4.6 degrees warmer than the first 30 years of observation). We've only had one September so far this century to match that old average (71.2 in 2004), and you have to go back to 1986 for the last time we had a September with a cooler average high than that.

 

Of course, we're comparing two different locations, and UHI is obviously a bigger factor now than it was then, so the numbers could be skewed a little. 

 

UHI has an impact on Potland's numbers, but the uptick is noticeable everywhere and has impacted average highs significantly in the last 30 years. There's been an almost complete lack of Septembers that are cooler than the historic averages.

 

We did have a long stretch of generally very cool Septembers between 1977 and 1986, like everything it seems somewhat cyclical, but August , September, and January do seem to have warmed disproportionately to the rest of the months in the last few decades.

[BLI snowman]

I liked 2010-11. Coolish overall with two historic cold spells, one early season and one late season, followed by my favorite spring ever.

 

Like most La Ninas, it was definitely better the further north you went. It was reasonably decent in Clark County, pretty frustrating south of there. 

[Deweydog]

Since 2008, the years that haven't hit 90 on 9/11 (2012, 2014) were both followed by crapstick winters. All the years that have (2008, 2009, 2011, 2013) at least had some fun winter weather at some point.

 

Some major food for thought!!

 

EDIT: I forgot about 2010. Hmm, that winter was sort of a tweener down here.

I think pretty soon the hot July/hot 9-11/cold October is gonna be the winter prognostication gold standard.

[BLI snowman]

I think pretty soon the hot July/hot 9-11/cold October is gonna be the winter prognostication gold standard.

 

We also need a pineapple express event in early November. and a stronger than average turnout at the Clark County Fair. 

[IbrChris]

Summer is over, there's nothing in the modeling that suggests another warm ridging episode the rest of September. Ensemble composites are suggestive of mean troughing along the west coast and in the Gulf of Alaska through the next 2 weeks.

I'm waiting to hear Jesse's screams of delight emanating from atop Bull Mountain. Jesse, please keep it down after 10 pm, I gotta work early tomorrow.

[Jesse]

Day 29 nail biter in progress at PDX!

[IbrChris]

Day 29 nail biter in progress at PDX!

 

With TTD-DLS up to +3.7 mb and fairly strong westerly push in progress through the Gorge I'd be surprised if we manage it. Marine stratus is even making progress inland during daylight hours.

[bainbridgekid]

Gonna be close for #29 at PDX today.

 

88 at 4 PM.

[Jesse]

Day 29.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Summer is over, there's nothing in the modeling that suggests another warm ridging episode the rest of September. Ensemble composites are suggestive of mean troughing along the west coast and in the Gulf of Alaska through the next 2 weeks.

 

I'm waiting to hear Jesse's screams of delight emanating from atop Bull Mountain. Jesse, please keep it down after 10 pm, I gotta work early tomorrow.

 

I don't know, but I have to say this has been a pretty decent stretch of summer weather, considering summer "ended" two weeks ago on this board.

 

There were people on here saying we were likely finished with 90's a month ago. How many have we had since then at PDX? Four?

 

I have to admit I didn't even expect PDX to hit 90 this month, but they've done it once (maybe twice depending on the next hour).

 

It's a pretty easy bet they won't see anymore 90's after today, but harder to guarantee that we won't see anymore summer-like weather before the end of September.

[Jesse]

I don't know, but I have to say this has been a pretty decent stretch of summer weather, considering summer "ended" two weeks ago on this board.

 

There were people on here saying we were likely finished with 90's a month ago. How many have we had since then at PDX? Four?

 

I have to admit I didn't even expect PDX to hit 90 this month, but they've done it once (maybe twice depending on the next hour).

 

It's a pretty easy bet they won't see anymore 90's after today, but harder to guarantee that we won't see anymore summer-like weather before the end of September.

The weather has been pretty fall like as a whole the past few weeks and it looks to continue that way the next few. The last couple days featured a pretty typical spike of early Autumn warmth, but in the bigger picture there has been a shift away from summer (and the very hot pattern that dominated this summer in particular) since the end of August.

 

A few warm days don't change that, even if we have a few more in the pipeline.

 

The fact that September will likely be a couple degrees below average at most stations by the 20th or so also easily sets it apart from the last several record warm months.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The weather has been pretty fall like as a whole the past few weeks and it looks to continue that way the next few. The last couple days featured a pretty typical spike of early Autumn warmth, but in the bigger picture there has been a shift away from summer (and the very hot pattern that dominated this summer in particular) since the end of August.

 

A few warm days don't change that, even if we have a few more in the pipeline.

 

I know. My main point is that the last 30 days or so hasn't really played out like some people suggested it might, with the exception of the roughly 10 day period at the beginning of this month.

 

There's no doubt we're transitioning into fall, though summer doesn't officially end for nine days.

[Jesse]

I know. My main point is that the last 30 days or so hasn't really played out like some people suggested it might, with the exception of the roughly 10 day period at the beginning of this month.

 

There's no doubt we're transitioning into fall, though summer doesn't officially end for nine days.

Meteorological summer ended 12 days ago. :)

 

This is a meteorology forum right?

 

As it stands now, this is looking like a fairly cool, troughy month. A couple token warm days notwithstanding.

[IbrChris]

First below normal month since Feb 2014?

[Deweydog]

Freakin' odd numbers...

[Jesse]

Freakin' odd numbers...

Don't even get me started...

 

Although if Abbotford has his/her way, we could see a nice round 32 or 34. It is still only midsummer after all!

[Jesse]

Those sweet NW winds kicked in just a couple hours too late.

[Jesse]

It's about time I started banning people who like warm weather or are off topic, or Canadian.

Finally!

[stuffradio]

Meteorological summer ended 12 days ago. :)

 

This is a meteorology forum right?

 

As it stands now, this is looking like a fairly cool, troughy month. A couple token warm days notwithstanding.

This is actually an astronomical forum. You want the room down the hall to your left.

[stuffradio]

It's about time I started banning people who like warm weather or are off topic, or Canadian.

Or if your username starts with a J.

 

 

 

  ScottSKOMO

Just ran some numbers -- if 15-day projections hold, #Seattle will indeed end up colder than normal in September, breaking 19-month streak

2015-09-12, 2:52 PM

 

Jesse can stop complaining about the warmth now!

 

Edit:

I just found the source for where that picture I posted yesterday was from.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/unger.pri.php

[TT-SEA]

As much as I love cold anomalies, the family and I spent the afternoon on the river. It was a refreshing day outside.

 

I'm sure we will see a couple more warm days in the coming weeks, but the models seems to be decidedly fall like. The past few feels have been a nice mix as well.

 

Spent the afternoon on Lake Washington with the family... gorgeous day.    

[MossMan]

Picture perfect day! Low 80's, wall to wall sun, light winds...perfect! And still 65 at 9:30pm!

[Jesse]

Back home now. Strong west winds along I-84 in the gorge from The Dalles westward.

 

Cooling off nicely this evening. The 00Z GFS looks great.

[stuffradio]

Back home now. Strong west winds along I-84 in the gorge from The Dalles westward.

 

Cooling off nicely this evening. The 00Z GFS looks great.

39F minimum on the 00z on Friday up here.

[Kayla]

00z GFS Ensemble wants to keep us below average through the rest of the month. Looking like our first below average month in quite sometime. Fall has officially arrived!

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful weather and the Ducks lost.   Good day.

[pscz1140]

Not sure if these have been posted before, but here are a couple of great articles on tropical forcing, the Blob, ENSO, and the NPM. Really nice graphs, maps, and simulation results in there.

 

https://baynature.org/articles/today-in-el-nino-advice-dont-worry-about-the-blob/

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/tropics-prime-suspect-behind-warm-cold-split-over-north-america-during

[MossMan]

Overcast and 63° as clouds and most move in over Lake Stevens.

Go Hawks!

Go Hawks! Low 60's and Partly Cloudy at Lake Goodwin.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up to low clouds, fog, and drizzle.   

 

But now the sun is out and the wind has picked up.    Looks like the c-zone is moving north.

[Jesse]

12z looks really cool for the upcoming week. Could be a day or two with highs in the 50s coming up for some I-5 corridor stations.

 

The ensembles keep the very cool weather going through the long range. I'm assuming the Canadian is on board too, since it hasn't been mentioned for days.

[MossMan]

Woke up to low clouds, fog, and drizzle.

 

But now the sun is out and the wind has picked up. Looks like the c-zone is moving north.

Mostly sunny with a light north breeze up here.

[TT-SEA]

Seahawks look pathetic.

 

No offense at all. Like they are half asleep.

[MossMan]

Seahawks look pathetic.

 

No offense at all. Like they are half asleep.

Typical game for the Hawks. Why can't we just have a blowout for once??