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Prob a good idea to start a thread for this region as the models are locking on an active N Stream traversing the region to close out the month.  A combination of system snow and LES will certainly make it look and feel like winter up this way.  A little holiday festive look???

 

Let's discuss...

 

0z EPS...

5.png

 

 

 

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We’re due up here in the Mit for a colder/snowier winter. The past 14 out of 20 have been warmer then average, at some point the law of averages would have to come into play you would think. Happy thanksgiving everyone, sorry we have such a crappy football team again this year that everyone has to watch today. By the way this is slowpoke, I had to create a new user name because it wouldn’t let me use my old one for some reason plus since I’ve been spending so much time now up here at the cabin because of remote working I figured I would tie my new user name in with my location. 

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18 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

We’re due up here in the Mit for a colder/snowier winter. The past 14 out of 20 have been warmer then average, at some point the law of averages would have to come into play you would think. Happy thanksgiving everyone, sorry we have such a crappy football team again this year that everyone has to watch today. By the way this is slowpoke, I had to create a new user name because it wouldn’t let me use my old one for some reason plus since I’ve been spending so much time now up here at the cabin because of remote working I figured I would tie my new user name in with my location. 

Hey there Slowpoke! Kinda figured that was you by some post contents. Yeah, I was inactive here (as typical) during the warm season and suddenly I was a "Newbie" ranked even though my post count (1,000's) remained. Odd stuff for sure. Didn't realize you were living up there more. Interesting comment that you dug into the actual number of only 30% BN winters over the past 2 decades. It's actually a bit surprising as that same period has featured some historically snowy winters. But ofc, snow cover durability has suffered for any sled riders as I once was across NMI. I knew Gaylord had done well with early LES this autumn, but it's surprising if your region without similar elevation has also scored. It really looks like we are sitting in the better corner of the Sub this time for a more sustained winter. MET winter starts in a few days so happy winter and holiday season to ya!

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NOAA:
Saturday will be another cool day with some sun early but we are now
watching a potential clipper diving through the northwest flow
Saturday night and Sunday. Models have been fairly consistent with a
track southeastward from the northern Plains through the northern
Ohio Valley the last several runs which puts lower MI around the
northern flank of the system. Still lots left to uncover with track
and strength as a 120 knot jet enters the base of the trough and
interacts with the system.  An earlier interaction will strengthen
the low farther west resulting in a deepening low around the MI/OH
border and a longer duration snowfall. Regardless, early indications
are for the lead warm frontal arm to develop over the area Saturday
night bringing the first flakes with the deformation band pivoting
over the area through the day Sunday bringing continued snowfall.
Snowfall totals could reach a couple inches before its all said and
done.
  • Snow 3

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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33 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hey there Slowpoke! Kinda figured that was you by some post contents. Yeah, I was inactive here (as typical) during the warm season and suddenly I was a "Newbie" ranked even though my post count (1,000's) remained. Odd stuff for sure. Didn't realize you were living up there more. Interesting comment that you dug into the actual number of only 30% BN winters over the past 2 decades. It's actually a bit surprising as that same period has featured some historically snowy winters. But ofc, snow cover durability has suffered for any sled riders as I once was across NMI. I knew Gaylord had done well with early LES this autumn, but it's surprising if your region without similar elevation has also scored. It really looks like we are sitting in the better corner of the Sub this time for a more sustained winter. MET winter starts in a few days so happy winter and holiday season to ya!

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/us-maps

I used this site to figure out what the past 20 winters have been like for us, really puts in perspective how warm its been around these parts for a while now. I will say looking out the window up here this morning what little snow we did have left yesterday is gone. We’ve had 4 or 5 grass covering snows here at Higgins already this Fall, I think just one was enough to plow though and there’s still piles left from the plows from that one. I know the NWS site south of Gaylord is pushing 20 inches already this Fall, we’re probably close to 12 inches here but we’re also 25 miles due south of them and 200 feet lower in elevation. I’m liking the way this Fall has been going so far, not too cold yet, we don’t really want the true winter cold for a few weeks yet if we’re going to have any chance at all of it having staying power.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Prob a good idea to start a thread for this region as the models are locking on an active N Stream traversing the region to close out the month.  A combination of system snow and LES will certainly make it look and feel like winter up this way.  A little holiday festive look???

 

Let's discuss...

 

0z EPS...

5.png

 

 

 

Thx Tom! I liked Clinton's EC better tho, lol. Still, a 5" mean over here is great since others are waiting to see such.

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  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx Tom! I liked Clinton's EC better tho, lol. Still, a 5" mean over here is great since others are waiting to see such.

That EC only has 10:1 available, looks like your snow may be kinda wet.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

That EC only has 10:1 available, looks like your snow may be kinda wet.

That'd be ok, snow nonetheless, right? This won't be a big deal, but any snow during the holiday season is nice.

0z UK likes SWMI more-so and even wants to include Tom's backyard on both waves...hmm

 

20211125 0z UKmet h144 Snowfall total-SLR.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That'd be ok, snow nonetheless, right? This won't be a big deal, but any snow during the holiday season is nice.

0z UK likes SWMI more-so and even wants to include Tom's backyard on both waves...hmm

 

20211125 0z UKmet h144 Snowfall total-SLR.PNG

Snow is snow and there nothing wrong with a little bit of moisture this time of year.

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1 hour ago, Niko said:
NOAA:
Saturday will be another cool day with some sun early but we are now
watching a potential clipper diving through the northwest flow
Saturday night and Sunday. Models have been fairly consistent with a
track southeastward from the northern Plains through the northern
Ohio Valley the last several runs which puts lower MI around the
northern flank of the system. Still lots left to uncover with track
and strength as a 120 knot jet enters the base of the trough and
interacts with the system.  An earlier interaction will strengthen
the low farther west resulting in a deepening low around the MI/OH
border and a longer duration snowfall. Regardless, early indications
are for the lead warm frontal arm to develop over the area Saturday
night bringing the first flakes with the deformation band pivoting
over the area through the day Sunday bringing continued snowfall.
Snowfall totals could reach a couple inches before its all said and
done.

I saw that too. These clippers ofc are fickle little systems and the slightest mis-alignment can screw one's chances in an instant. I do like the current portrayals tho. Takes the SLP over KTOL which normally would be a bit close for comfort but the snow line hugs the track so we should be ok. Will come down to how the little phasing plays out.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z NAM says my travel home Saturday night could be a snow globe. It is very warm front heavy with the snow, then has the dreadful dry slot due to the SLP riding just a bit further north than before. Need the SLP to stay south of the state line. That's my concern as to whether Detroit metro could get in on the defo band.

 

20211125 12z NAM Surf h60.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Snow is snow and there nothing wrong with a little bit of moisture this time of year.

Yes sir..during this time of the year, especially, after Thanksgiving, snow is certainly welcome in my books. Tis the season ya'll!!! 😃

Btw: This does have the potential to be an overachiever. Bears watching amigo. It is all about "Phasing at the right time as well as having the SLP cooperating."

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12z NAM says my travel home Saturday night could be a snow globe. It is very warm front heavy with the snow, then has the dreadful dry slot due to the SLP riding just a bit further north than before. Need the SLP to stay south of the state line. That's my concern as to whether Detroit metro could get in on the defo band.

 

20211125 12z NAM Surf h60.PNG

Look at that wall of snow..yikes. If we get into that defo band, look out. We could be in for several inches.

  • Snow 3

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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0z Euro is opposite camp from NAM as it gives us better results via the deformation snows during the day Sunday. I really hope it has the better handle on this but who knows? Still at the end of the NAM's range so there's that. But, in NAM's defense, early season thermals can run warmer than expected and force a further N track so we will see. Virtually zero snow total difference between KCH and SLR so 10:1 seems 'bout right. My fave ratio tbh. I didn't grow up with the LEFluff like the west-siders. I guess when there's snow chances, tStacsh is too busy to post??

 

 

20211125 0z Euro h96 Snowfall total-SLR.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Took "04" an extra AFD cycle to get onboard, but a decent and decently enthusiastic write-up this pm. The up 4" amounts this evening behind the CF is like 400% what s/he was saying early this am. And the Saturday clipper sounding like our first area-wide event for SMI complete with dicey roads for my planned holiday travels..

Quote
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

...Lake effect snow tonight, widespread light snow Saturday...

A cold front that passed through the cwa this morning is now near
Toledo and colder air is beginning to flow into the region quickly.
Light snow has already begun from Big Rapids northward and the
change over to snow showers will spread south. As boundary layer
winds become more northwesterly tonight, lake effect snow bands will
orient more toward the lake shore and the far southwestern cwa. h85
omega shows this nicely from 00z-06z with a band from western Ottawa
county through western Allegan, Van Buren, and Kalamazoo counties. A
solid 1-3" looks possible in this area with localized 4" not out of
the question. This will be a quick-hitting event and drier air will
move in prior to sunrise Friday.

The next system is a clipper and will begin spreading snow into the
cwa Saturday afternoon. The main model change has been to speed up
the timing. Initially, this system looked like it would arrive
Saturday night, but now it looks like light snow will develop
Saturday afternoon. This looks like a 1-3"/2-4" type clipper with
pretty much the entire cwa seeing snow. Initially, surface temps
will be above freezing, but quickly fall to freezing and below as
evening approaches. Roads may become slick Saturday night.

giddy-up..

  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Here is how all of this looks as of now......

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SundaySnapClipperNE25Nov.jpg?w=632

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ClipperSnowTiming25Nov.jpg?w=632

Snow arrives here in SMI at 7pm Saturday evening. That is a lot sooner than expected. If this clipper slows down, then, it can get quite snowy around here.

Perfect way to ring in the holidays, eh amigo? You said, "right after Thanksgiving"

Now, it's DTX with some magic words for our potential. Our first headliner looking likely imho.

Quote
Dry weather continues through most of Saturday before the next low
pressure system arrives with some snow accumulation mainly Saturday
night and Sunday. The 12Z models today maintain a consensus of two
separate waves in the NW flow aloft, the first activating isentropic
ascent Saturday evening before shearing eastward in favor of the
second wave digging into the central Great Lakes after midnight
through Sunday morning. This wave also develops a strongly sheared
appearance from 500 mb to the surface that passes the eye test for
potential mesoscale forcing and banded snow structures. The
deterministic models all have a QPF axis hinting at this potential
with a general placement over southern Lower MI. The exception is
the ECMWF solution which appears too far south relative to its
surface and upper air features. The others offer a general
accumulation around 2 inches while acknowledging room for upward
adjustments as mesoscale timing and intensity, along with any
possible enhancement from Lake Huron, are refined in the next few
forecast cycles.

 

  • Snow 4

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Perfect way to ring in the holidays, eh amigo? You said, "right after Thanksgiving"

Now, it's DTX with some magic words for our potential. Our first headliner looking likely imho.

 

Yes Sir....you are absolutely right. The timing could not be better. Also, this potential snowevent just keeps getting better and better. Tomorrow is a crucial day in terms of models. Only a day away from this possible snowstorm. I wonder what kind of headliner they will include.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-261000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

A low pressure system moves in Saturday night and Sunday with snow
accumulation likely. Totals around 2 inches are possible while
subject to the usual adjustments and refinements as the system
approaches over the next couple of days. 
Snow ends early Sunday evening as the low pressure system exits
eastward and leaves cold air reinforcement in place to start next
week. There are early indications of another NW flow short wave
moving into the region that could brush SE MI with more light snow
Monday night.

 

WinterCast FROM Accu-weather

Saturday Evening - Sunday Afternoon

22.svg
2 - 4 in
Snow
  • Snow 4

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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8 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-261000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

A low pressure system moves in Saturday night and Sunday with snow
accumulation likely. Totals around 2 inches are possible while
subject to the usual adjustments and refinements as the system
approaches over the next couple of days. 
Snow ends early Sunday evening as the low pressure system exits
eastward and leaves cold air reinforcement in place to start next
week. There are early indications of another NW flow short wave
moving into the region that could brush SE MI with more light snow
Monday night.

 

WinterCast FROM Accu-weather

Saturday Evening - Sunday Afternoon

22.svg
2 - 4 in
Snow

Michigan and Minnesota can be thankful for being among the snowiest places in the United States. 

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3 hours ago, westMJim said:

Thanks for the link. I will find that a useful tool. What location do you live near?

We technically “live” in northern St Clair county about 15 miles west of Port Huron but we’ve been spending a ton of time up here at Higgins Lake at our cabin because of being able to work remotely, it’s been about a 50/50 split time wise. 

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18z NAM with a bull's eye for Metro Detroit. Keep it coming NAM

 

20211125 18z NAM Snowfall h78.PNG

  • Snow 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

18z NAM with a bull's eye for Metro Detroit. Keep it coming NAM

 

20211125 18z NAM Snowfall h78.PNG

 

2 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-261000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

A low pressure system moves in Saturday night and Sunday with snow
accumulation likely. Totals around 2 inches are possible while
subject to the usual adjustments and refinements as the system
approaches over the next couple of days. 
Snow ends early Sunday evening as the low pressure system exits
eastward and leaves cold air reinforcement in place to start next
week. There are early indications of another NW flow short wave
moving into the region that could brush SE MI with more light snow
Monday night.

 

WinterCast FROM Accu-weather

Saturday Evening - Sunday Afternoon

22.svg
2 - 4 in
Snow

18z EC with 2 waves of snow over the next 6 days.  The amounts are slowly climbing as you get closer to the start, enjoy the white gold!

1638381600-72di6yKkyCs.png

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51 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

18z EC with 2 waves of snow over the next 6 days.  The amounts are slowly climbing as you get closer to the start, enjoy the white gold!

1638381600-72di6yKkyCs.png

Score one for the "Old school rules". Not gonna disappoint. For once, I'm on the inside looking out, lol.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-261000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
347 PM EST Thu Nov 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan.

A low pressure system moves in Saturday night and Sunday with snow
accumulation likely. Totals around 2 inches are possible while
subject to the usual adjustments and refinements as the system
approaches over the next couple of days. 
Snow ends early Sunday evening as the low pressure system exits
eastward and leaves cold air reinforcement in place to start next
week. There are early indications of another NW flow short wave
moving into the region that could brush SE MI with more light snow
Monday night.

 

WinterCast FROM Accu-weather

Saturday Evening - Sunday Afternoon

22.svg
2 - 4 in
Snow

So, at 48 hrs til show time, 0z NAM trends towards the Euro's earlier depiction and gives us more on the backside. The SLP sinks SE to Lake Erie, then kinda crawls eastward across the lake for like 9 hrs. Guessing this is the phasing/merger of the upper air components causing this to happen. Like you said "stay tuned", the trend's our friend.

 

20211126 0z NAM Surf h54-63.gif

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

So, at 48 hrs til show time, 0z NAM trends towards the Euro's earlier depiction and gives us more on the backside. The SLP sinks SE to Lake Erie, then kinda crawls eastward across the lake for like 9 hrs. Guessing this is the phasing/merger of the upper air components causing this to happen. Like you said "stay tuned", the trend's our friend.

 

20211126 0z NAM Surf h54-63.gif

This is very interesting!

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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21 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Lol hi guys

LOL KTOL gonna rake. Per DTX the best stuff will be south of the MI border. Go figure

But! it is a clipper, so..

Quote
For 48-54 hours out in the forecast, the variability amongst the ensembles is unusually high, showing the sensitivity
of this forecast.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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29 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z Euro/EPS still suggesting a nice first "taste of winter" to close out November for you guys....

7.png

 

6.png

Yes sir, going to look and feel like winter across The Mitt. Apparently the NAM likes OH, but the Euro says "not so fast"

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Snow  Outlook

 
 
2 - 4 in
Snow
Upcoming
Starts at
8:00 PM
Saturday, 11/27
Ends
6:00 PM
Sunday, 11/28
 
Snowfall Amount Probability
Greater than 8 in 1%
 
4 - 8 in 24%
 
2 - 4 in 39%
 
An inch or two 20%
 
Less than 1 inch 16%
 
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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

Snow  Outlook

 
 
2 - 4 in
Snow
Upcoming
Starts at
8:00 PM
Saturday, 11/27
Ends
6:00 PM
Sunday, 11/28
 
Snowfall Amount Probability
Greater than 8 in 1%
 
4 - 8 in 24%
 
2 - 4 in 39%
 
An inch or two 20%
 
Less than 1 inch 16%
 

12z Euro still looks good for you guys. with several waves of snow.

1638241200-cP00APUQM78.png

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GRR had a regular overnight for their AFD.

I like it..

Quote
- Widespread snow late Saturday into early Sunday -

A clipper system moving in from the northwest will bring
widespread synoptic snow from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night. Snow potential will be enhanced by potential for moderate
to strong mid level frontogenetical forcing and deep moisture/omegas
through the dgz by Saturday evening. This system will also get a
moisture boost from Lake MI.

Overall short to medium range guidance trends have been a bit
more bullish with snow potential with this system and this seems
reasonable given the aforementioned favorable ingredients.
Therefore we expect a widespread 1 to 3 inch snow event for our
area from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday with localized
higher amounts to 4 inches where fgen banding sets up/is most
persistent.

Some travel impacts are likely given the amount of snow fcst in
conjunction with sfc temps only in the upper 20s to lower 30s and
wet bulb/dynamical cooling effects as snow moves in. Light snow
showers will linger on Sunday before ending as ridging begins to
build in from the west Sunday night.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This b why I have a love/hate relationship with clippers. They cannot be trusted outside of about 12 hrs. Things can even change within that time-frame (for better or worse).

The original concept of two waves merging over the lakes is just not happening. Not only will the two NW flow S/W's not join forces, it appears the secondary (in contrast to S Stream S/W's) will be north of the first! This means whatever we get via the front-runner tomorrow night, we may lose to a surge of warmth being pulled north by that 2nd SLP as DTX saying temps Sunday could push 40F. This thing's going to have it's work cut-out for it to beat the clipper (10) days ago which is sad considering the antecedent air mass is far and away better this time. 

Oh well, if there's a silver lining, it's the bolded portion from DTX's AFD

Quote
NAM system relative progs depict the best isentropic ascent
developing along a northwest-to-southeast corridor across the
central/southern CWA during the evening hours Saturday. This paired
with fgen sliding along the elevated warm front will bring ample
lift to quickly saturate the low-levels and result in light snowfall
starting during the late afternoon. The highest rates look to occur
at the onset as better ascent is focused near the DGZ. However, a
relatively warm column will keep this layer high up - near 600mb -
with an isothermal layer beneath that will limit snow:liquid ratios
to 10:1 or lower. Ascent then wanes by around midnight with
differential height rises developing in the wake of the departing
wave. Model consensus QPF on the order of 0.10 to 0.25 inches will
give snowfall totals of around 1 to 2.5 inches by Sunday morning for
most areas. The northern Thumb stands the best chance to see less
than an inch as the main plume of moisture (3+ g/kg of 850-700mb
specific humidity) remains well to the south. The highest snowfall
totals are currently expected roughly along a corridor from
Lansing/Owosso to Detroit where the best mesoscale forcing slides
through.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This b why I have a love/hate relationship with clippers. They cannot be trusted outside of about 12 hrs. Things can even change within that time-frame (for better or worse).

The original concept of two waves merging over the lakes is just not happening. Not only will the two NW flow S/W's not join forces, it appears the secondary (in contrast to S Stream S/W's) will be north of the first! This means whatever we get via the front-runner tomorrow night, we may lose to a surge of warmth being pulled north by that 2nd SLP as DTX saying temps Sunday could push 40F. This thing's going to have it's work cut-out for it to beat the clipper (10) days ago which is sad considering the antecedent air mass is far and away better this time. 

Oh well, if there's a silver lining, it's the bolded portion from DTX's AFD

 

Dont worry amigo...a 1-3"+ snowfall is fine by me. It will be putting a lot of people in the holiday spirit. Better than having a bare ground.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Dont worry amigo...a 1-3"+ snowfall is fine by me. It will be putting a lot of people in the holiday spirit. Better than having a bare ground.

Not worried. I didn't expect any action this weekend at all. Just like to see any opportunity "go big" that's all. This will really have to go off the rails to be a total dud. As-is, KDTW stands a pretty good chance of being AN in snowfall for November.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Not worried. I didn't expect any action this weekend at all. Just like to see any opportunity "go big" that's all. This will really have to go off the rails to be a total dud. As-is, KDTW stands a pretty good chance of being AN in snowfall for November.

Yes..looking very likely to go AN snowfall this month. You are also right about Dtw being in the sweet spot. Noaa mentioning that as well in their afternoon package today. Hopefully, an overachiever w this one. 😃

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Wow! This has really sped-up. Just 24 hrs ago, it wasn't supposed to begin here until 7 pm, then go all night. Now, this latest published guidance from less than an hour ago, has it mostly an evening event, and outta here wrt the real accumulating stuff. Could be some steady flakes coming down when we sit down for our holiday dinner about 4:30 tomorrow. 

image.png.b88c5f470ddbad6717d892df09846e9d.png

1796358636_2021112601zNOAAGraphicalforecastforh20.PNG.a9baebc3e2a5dd3feec21f4de6cbdfbd.PNG

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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0z NAM is a much "cleaner" first wave and I really hope it's correct. Keeps a nice steady snowfall for 12 hrs beginning (here) late afternoon.

1837246361_202111270zNAMSurfh19-31.gif

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Would gladly take a solid 3" to the bank:

 

20211127 0z NAM Snowfall h48.PNG

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Timing and amounts match up well with the 18z Euro.

1638273600-lu5khIIHrgE.png

Unfortunate that the two use a different cut-off between blues/greys making it more challenging to compare. Nonetheless, for SEMI I think they align nicely. Don't show Stacsh the Euro tho, it will encourage his call for dry slot-n-drizzle over his way.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Hello winter!

image.png.31de71b44a13a1f1ba5bafce43670047.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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A few met particulars from GRR's AFD this pm

Quote
-- Accumulating Snow Saturday --

The first of a pair of clippers this weekend is on track to
produce snow across the majority of central to southern Michigan
Saturday afternoon into the evening. Deep moisture and a period of
moderate lift in the mid-upper levels will be present as the wave
moves through. The DGZ will be saturated and undergoing lift, and
the snow crystals from the DGZ will fall through a deeper and
saturated isothermal layer of about -5 C.

The members of the 12Z HREF have converged on the I-96 corridor
and about 30-50 miles north and south of there receiving the bulk
of the precipitation for the day... about 0.15 to 0.25 QPF, and
snow/liquid ratio in the ballpark of 10 to 1... so generally 1 to
2 inches of snow with isolated 3 possible. The ECMWF ensembles a
running a little farther north with the precip compared to the
HREF. Forecast snow amounts are a little less confident and
subject to change for areas south/west of Kalamazoo and north of
Clare, where they will be near the edge of the precip swath which
could have a sharp gradient much of the time. Temperatures support
snow impacts to road conditions, starting near or just above 32
degrees then only cooling into the evening, likely allowing roads
to become slushy or snow- covered. Can`t rule out some lingering
light freezing drizzle late Saturday night as ice-bearing clouds
peel away.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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