jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 0z NAM is a much "cleaner" first wave and I really hope it's correct. Keeps a nice steady snowfall for 12 hrs beginning (here) late afternoon. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Would gladly take a solid 3" to the bank: 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Would gladly take a solid 3" to the bank: Timing and amounts match up well with the 18z Euro. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, jaster220 said: 0z NAM is a much "cleaner" first wave and I really hope it's correct. Keeps a nice steady snowfall for 12 hrs beginning (here) late afternoon. How beautiful is that! Luv it!!!!!! 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Timing and amounts match up well with the 18z Euro. Unfortunate that the two use a different cut-off between blues/greys making it more challenging to compare. Nonetheless, for SEMI I think they align nicely. Don't show Stacsh the Euro tho, it will encourage his call for dry slot-n-drizzle over his way. 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Timing and amounts match up well with the 18z Euro. Thanks for posting bud!! 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Hello winter! 2 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 A few met particulars from GRR's AFD this pm Quote -- Accumulating Snow Saturday -- The first of a pair of clippers this weekend is on track to produce snow across the majority of central to southern Michigan Saturday afternoon into the evening. Deep moisture and a period of moderate lift in the mid-upper levels will be present as the wave moves through. The DGZ will be saturated and undergoing lift, and the snow crystals from the DGZ will fall through a deeper and saturated isothermal layer of about -5 C. The members of the 12Z HREF have converged on the I-96 corridor and about 30-50 miles north and south of there receiving the bulk of the precipitation for the day... about 0.15 to 0.25 QPF, and snow/liquid ratio in the ballpark of 10 to 1... so generally 1 to 2 inches of snow with isolated 3 possible. The ECMWF ensembles a running a little farther north with the precip compared to the HREF. Forecast snow amounts are a little less confident and subject to change for areas south/west of Kalamazoo and north of Clare, where they will be near the edge of the precip swath which could have a sharp gradient much of the time. Temperatures support snow impacts to road conditions, starting near or just above 32 degrees then only cooling into the evening, likely allowing roads to become slushy or snow- covered. Can`t rule out some lingering light freezing drizzle late Saturday night as ice-bearing clouds peel away. 1 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Hello winter! and mine as well..... Saturday Mostly cloudy, then snow Saturday Night Snow Low: 30 °F 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Here is a sneak peak of our "Snow System." 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Would gladly take a solid 3" to the bank: Shoulda mentioned. I didn't get anything close to 3" until January 31st last winter, so yeah, this would be a big deal for me personally. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 8 hours ago, jaster220 said: Wow! This has really sped-up. Just 24 hrs ago, it wasn't supposed to begin here until 7 pm, then go all night. Now, this latest published guidance from less than an hour ago, has it mostly an evening event, and outta here wrt the real accumulating stuff. Could be some steady flakes coming down when we sit down for our holiday dinner about 4:30 tomorrow. They say, "Timing is everything"...this would be the perfect outcome in my book if I was in your position. Hope to see some pics of the snow falling while your out and about! Congrats to all of you on your 1st WWA! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: They say, "Timing is everything"...this would be the perfect outcome in my book if I was in your position. Hope to see some pics of the snow falling while your out and about! Congrats to all of you on your 1st WWA! I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry. Surprised they went with a WWA. Looks like a bust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 48 minutes ago, Stacsh said: I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry. Surprised they went with a WWA. Looks like a bust. Well, I guess they feel the pressure to make a decision at the time of the AFD so as to give the public (remember, that's why they exist) some kind of "heads-up" forecast, not just a now-cast. Otherwise, they'd be like anyone looking out their windows and seeing snow falling and saying "there's snow". And, once they pull the trigger, they can't really wobble and take it down as then they will lose more credibility. See my clipper post, I wouldn't envy their job wrt forecasting these things. DTX mentioned it was a "weak or borderline" call for them to go WWA. But, first potential wide-spread slick roads, on a busy holiday travel weekend - have to err on the side of caution imo. It cannot possibly be any more lame than last November's first WWA for white rain that never stuck on pavement throughout the duration. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season" Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/ Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow accumulations of two to three inches. * WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of I-69. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Niko said: Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season" Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/ Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow accumulations of two to three inches. * WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of I-69. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Congrats amigo! it's earlier arrival is not helping my travel plans stay on schedule. Just hope to avoid getting caught in an x-way shut-down. Those are the worst! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Just now, jaster220 said: Congrats amigo! it's earlier arrival is not helping my travel plans stay on schedule. Just hope to avoid getting caught in an x-way shut-down. Those are the worst! I know what ya mean amigo. Stay safe out there, if venturing outdoors later today. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 2 hours ago, Stacsh said: I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry. Surprised they went with a WWA. Looks like a bust. Wow, yeah 12z NAM really dry-slots SWMI all the way up thru Kent. It's a different development from last night's portrayal. Let us know how ya do tho.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, Niko said: Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season" Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/ Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT... * WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow accumulations of two to three inches. * WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of I-69. * WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Wow, yeah 12z NAM really dry-slots SWMI all the way up thru Kent. It's a different development from last night's portrayal. Let us know how ya do tho.. Got a dusting so far but the dry slot almost here. Unless it fills in I nailed it. Dry slot with drizzle. Radar trends north. Euro was right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 46 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Got a dusting so far but the dry slot almost here. Unless it fills in I nailed it. Dry slot with drizzle. Radar trends north. Euro was right. Two things hit me. Clippers almost always trend north early season, sometimes south late season. 2nd, can't help but think the warmth of Lake Mich is not your friend with this set-up. It's like a big bathtub full of warm water and the warm air rising is pushing the thermal boundary further north over your way. The NAM also develops a slug of moisture over this way later this evening almost as if confirming the idea that the fgen is better with OH to my SW instead of a warm batch of water. Probably came into play on the clipper 13 days ago as well. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 DTX updated AFD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1032 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021 .UPDATE... The elevated warm front has progressed over SE Michigan this morning with regional radar showing some returns progressing eastward across the state as fgen begins to light up. Still a few pockets of dry air to contend with before snow begins reaching the ground in earnest, evidenced by elevated ceiling heights and the 12z DTX sounding. This process won`t take long as forcing begins to ramp up with the parent low pressure tracking into southern Wisconsin over the next few hours. Did bump up pops on the early end as there have been some obs over western and central Michigan indicating snow is already beginning to reach the ground. Forecast remains on track in that a general 2 to 3 inch snowfall is still expected across much of the central forecast area through the afternoon and evening. Peak snowfall rates of about 0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour are expected with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s allowing snow to accumulate on roadways. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in good shape. Snow then tapers off around midnight as the low pressure tracks along the Michigan/Ohio border. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Dry slot hit the west side of GR but has filled back in here on NE side. Currently Light snow almost 1/2” otg. Looks like an inch to 1 1/2 “ will be tops. Not gonna hit 3”, but good appetizer for the upcoming winter. Might go fire up the snowblower for a test pull. added a pic for reference of locale. Close call on the dry slot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Dry slot hit the west side of GR but has filled back in here on NE side. Still around 1/4 inch here with some light snow still falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 The Michigan/Ohio St game looks great with the snow falling. Football is better with snow! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, Clinton said: The Michigan/Ohio St game looks great with the snow falling. Football is better with snow! Go blue!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: Go blue!!! Yes sir!!! And now moderate snow falling. A beautiful day! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Snowy football game. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 27, 2021 Report Share Posted November 27, 2021 Congregations to MICHIGAN in their big win over ohio state. There is just under one inch of new snow on the ground here and the roads are snow-covered and slippery. The current temperature is 30 here with light snow falling. We were on the south side of town doing some shopping and there is more snow here than is the Rivertown Mall area in SW GR. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 A lot of areas are in the 2-5inch range. Very impressive for some. For the Detroit Metro Airport so far, snow depth is about 4.2 inches. Ann Arbor is at 4.2." Even Lansing did great as well (in the 4.0"+ range). I think that will be the final count as this clipper has rolled on through the area. Not too shabby at all. It is a "Winter Wonderland" out there. Absolutely beautiful. Temps are holding in the upper 20s to around 30F attm. 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Extra 2 hours of stressful driving, but didn't let the early arrival of this system derail our holiday plan. Stepped out to warm the ride at 11:30 and the first tiny flakes were just falling. 45 mins later I was stuck in my first x-way gridlock almost 3 full hours before the headline was due to begin. This thing just could not wait to get here I guess, lol. At least 25 slide-offs and crashes. North of Lansing the snow got noticeably deeper and a car and truck had tangled. They were way off in a swampy ditch with the car engulfed in 5 foot high flames. Entire fam standing out in the cold and snow watching helplessly. Snow was barely falling when we got to Frankenmuth and there was just a dusting there in town, mostly just wet pavement and mood flakes. We were running behind plan so photos weren't priority one. Didn't snow at all as we enjoyed a fantastic dinner, but we get 4 miles out of town and it was suddenly pouring flakes again! 2.5 to as much as 3.5" seemed common along the Lansing to Detroit corridor. Due to being a holiday weekend, the road crews were hit or miss. Some freeways were finally being plowed, but I saw passing lanes un-drivable too. Very picturesque night as we came into Canton. Couple pics out my front door 8 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Extra 2 hours of stressful driving, but didn't let the early arrival of this system derail our holiday plan. Stepped out to warm the ride at 11:30 and the first tiny flakes were just falling. 45 mins later I was stuck in my first x-way gridlock almost 3 full hours before the headline was due to begin. This thing just could not wait to get here I guess, lol. At least 25 slide-offs and crashes. North of Lansing the snow got noticeably deeper and a car and truck had tangled. They were way off in a swampy ditch with the car engulfed in 5 foot high flames. Entire fam standing out in the cold and snow watching helplessly. Snow was barely falling when we got to Frankenmuth and there was just a dusting there in town, mostly just wet pavement and mood flakes. We were running behind plan so photos weren't priority one. Didn't snow at all as we enjoyed a fantastic dinner, but we get 4 miles out of town and it was suddenly pouring flakes again! 2.5 to as much as 3.5" seemed common along the Lansing to Detroit corridor. Due to being a holiday weekend, the road crews were hit or miss. Some freeways were finally being plowed, but I saw passing lanes un-drivable too. Very picturesque night as we came into Canton. Couple pics out my front door Beautiful pics 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 56 minutes ago, Niko said: A lot of areas are in the 2-5inch range. Very impressive for some. For the Detroit Metro Airport so far, snow depth is about 2.2 inches. Ann Arbor is at 4.2." Even Lansing did great as well (in the 4.0"+ range). I think that will be the final count as this clipper has rolled on through the area. Not too shabby at all. It is a "Winter Wonderland" out there. Absolutely beautiful. Temps are holding in the upper 20s to around 30F attm. Yep, DTW 4.2" (Looks like somehow that convection stayed "just" south of Canton as we don't have that much here) 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Bet this was nice to see.. 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Thumb gonna get hurt tomorrow 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Both GFS and NAM looking much snowier here Tues. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 7 hours ago, jaster220 said: Both GFS and NAM looking much snowier here Tues. Another 3 inches possible! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Here at my house 2.8" of snow fell yesterday. The official snow fall at GRR was 2.7" around the area Muskegon just 1.1" at Lansing they recorded 2.4" of snow fall. Detroit metro reported 4.2" Flint 2.6" Saginaw just 0.4" At Grand Rapids it was the 6th snowiest November 27th at Lansing it was the 11th snowiest (records go back to 1863 at Lansing) At Detroit it was the 5th snowiest November 27th at Flint it was the 4th snowiest Muskegon and Saginaw it was not in the top 20. But over all a very snowy November 27th. At this time it is cloudy and 32 here at my house. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: Yep, DTW 4.2" (Looks like somehow that convection stayed "just" south of Canton as we don't have that much here) The "Magnet" has returned in DTW...... but yes, Detroit did very well w this clipper. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 9 hours ago, jaster220 said: Bet this was nice to see.. Would have been easier to see without the fog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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