Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Another 3 inches possible! Was about to mention..there is also a partB to this. More snow on the way for SMI, as another clipper is on the way. A couple of inches w this is very possible. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 23 minutes ago, Niko said: Was about to mention..there is also a partB to this. More snow on the way for SMI, as another clipper is on the way. A couple of inches w this is very possible. Let it Snow, Let it Snow...you guys did pretty well I'd say for your first round of snow of the season. @jaster220, those were picturesque photos you took and I'm sure your getting the holiday vibe! It's too bad your call of the expected highway debacle became true. I always feel like the first snowfall of the season "breaks" everyone in...sometimes literally...enjoy the winter scene! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 38 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Would have been easier to see without the fog. Was prolly just jet blast blowing the snow around. I didn't see any true fog yesterday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Les squall. Went from calm and sun to 20 mph wind and near white out in less than a minute. Some of the best snow rates and ratios you’ll ever see is les. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Tom said: Let it Snow, Let it Snow...you guys did pretty well I'd say for your first round of snow of the season. @jaster220, those were picturesque photos you took and I'm sure your getting the holiday vibe! It's too bad your call of the expected highway debacle became true. I always feel like the first snowfall of the season "breaks" everyone in...sometimes literally...enjoy the winter scene! You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo Roads were awful here. None plowed or treated. Main roads were completely snow covered. So many accidents. Not usual for a light mid-day snow in West Michigan. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, jaster220 said: You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo Yes..I remember reading that in one of @Tomprevious posts. Good job Tom! 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Upcoming Snow and Ice..."PartB Clipper" An inch or two Snow Upcoming Start-time 4:00 PM Monday, 11/29 End-time 12:00 AM Tuesday, 11/30 Snowfall Amount Probability Greater than 4 in 1% 2 - 4 in 16% An inch or two 44%: not too shabby. I'll take it and run! A coating to an inch 33% Little to no accumulation 6% 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 43 minutes ago, jaster220 said: You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo I did feel the N & E Sub would have winter settle in when I saw some of the LR signals back in early/mid Nov and the western/southern parts of the Sub to sit on the sidelines. Glad to see the GL's region finally cashing in early on bc in seasons past it has been the Plains/Upper MW reeling in the snow. It appears that the eastern Sub will continue in this pattern as we head into the 1st half of Dec. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Up_north_MI Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Stacsh said: Roads were awful here. None plowed or treated. Main roads were completely snow covered. So many accidents. Not usual for a light mid-day snow in West Michigan. Same for us, our drive from northern lower MI to here in the thumb last night was horrible. It didn’t help that I was towing our 30’ snowmobile trailer either but we saw more accidents then plow trucks on our drive. Here in northern St Clair county the grass is covered with probably close to 3.5” -4” on the ground now but a inch oh that fell in the last 45 minutes. Really starting to look like Christmas out there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 Hope this line dropping S is as interesting as the radar looks 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 20 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Hope this line dropping S is as interesting as the radar looks Looks like it was given a snow squall warning. Pretty wild. At least some peeps have gotten the ball rolling with winter. DTW has a -1.7 depature for November with 5" of snow so far. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 28, 2021 Report Share Posted November 28, 2021 2-3" maybe 4" tomorrow if all goes as planned. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 18z Euro stays steady with about 1.5" Monday night here. Keeps all other snow north of here going forward tho fwiw. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 18z NAM was more robust with qpf, but keeps things further N, with a brutal cut-off for me. Must be noted, it was still making adjustments at this range for yesterday. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 18z GFS is more south in the Euro's camp. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 12z CMC south but a bit stingy for Wayne Cnty. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Nice Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 753 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 MIZ049-055-290300- Huron-Sanilac- Including the cities of Bad Axe and Sandusky 753 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021 ...Winter Weather Advisory in Effect... As of 745 PM, a band of heavy snow extended from Port Austin south to Bad Axe to just east of Marlette. Snowfall rates within this band of snow are exceeding an inch per hour. Between 8 PM and 10 PM, this band of heavy snow will slowly move east toward the Lake Huron shoreline and will affect locations in and near Harbor Beach and Forestville. Drivers can expect snow covered roads and very poor visibilities in these snow showers. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Dang 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 A little bit further inland. This region has done very well so far this autumn, and I believe it's due to the very warm lake temps causing the snow to fall further away from the lake. 0524 PM SNOW 4 SW SMITHVILLE 44.49N 85.21W 11/28/2021 M10.5 INCH MISSAUKEE MI PUBLIC 12 HR TOTAL FROM 11 N LAKE CITY. SNOW DEPTH 11 INCHES. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 0z EPS/Euro aligning pretty well with the rest of the models with another nice advisory level snow for N Wisco...while lower MI gets another appetizer... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 More snow on the way tanite. Hopefully, the best forcing happens over Dtw, as some models are depicting. Snow should begin after 6pm and end around 3am or so. Tuesday morning's drive will be tricky, if venturing out and about. Here is a piece of info from NOAA: The best forcing appears to transition across the northern cwa after 06Z at least in some response to some occlusion type processes. The latter has support from the ECMWF and regional GEM solutions. So, it has a chance to be an overachiever like the previous clipper. We will see. Giddy up y'all. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Thermals will be an issue here, but this looks like another close call for my area for better moisture. Could see a surprise here as yesterday this looked to miss to my north and east with the better snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 12z 3km NAM has a little bump in totals over previous run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: 12z 3km NAM has a little bump in totals over previous run. Noticed NAM last night, it was just that the shield was displaced N. GRR .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 AM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 QPF with the quick hitting isentropic lift event this evening continues trending up (and farther south and west) in latest guidance so have posted a Winter Weather Advisory for much of the area this evening. (Southwest corner is excluded.) While final storm total amounts will not be too excessive, most the snow falls in only a 3 hour period centered between roughly 7 PM and 10 PM. The briefly higher snowfall rates will likely result in rapidly deteriorating travel impacts this evening due to the sudden drop in visibilities and roads becoming quickly snow covered/slippery. About 3-4 G/KG mixing ratios are available during this event on the 285K isentropic sfc, which is impressive for a clipper type system. Mild sfc temperatures are present at the onset of precip, but quickly drop to at or just below freezing in the fcst soundings once the heavier rates develop. This should be a wet snow with SLRs around 10:1. It is worth noting that a few EC ensemble members exceed 3" for this event, so have included "locally higher" wording in the advisory. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Hard times for Marshall. Left out of the WWA again. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: More snow on the way tanite. Hopefully, the best forcing happens over Dtw, as some models are depicting. Snow should begin after 6pm and end around 3am or so. Tuesday morning's drive will be tricky, if venturing out and about. Here is a piece of info from NOAA: The best forcing appears to transition across the northern cwa after 06Z at least in some response to some occlusion type processes. The latter has support from the ECMWF and regional GEM solutions. So, it has a chance to be an overachiever like the previous clipper. We will see. Giddy up y'all. I was keen to notice a new wx term I'd never read before: Quote System relative progs show a well organized, tilted low pressure system from 925mb through roughly 625mb which appears to add a slab lift component to the already existing isentropic ascent. All in all, it looks like late developments (inside 36 hrs) have continued to be positive ones! Wonder if DTX pulls the WWA trigger this pm since GRR did. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: I was keen to notice a new wx term I'd never read before: All in all, it looks like late developments (inside 36 hrs) have continued to be positive ones! Wonder if DTX pulls the WWA trigger this pm since GRR did. I would not be surprised if they do amigo. This clipper is getting stronger. Thanks for that info btw. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Pound town fatties. First snow blow of the year. Probably 2 so far today but had the weekend stuff to move too!!! 20211129_142132.mp4 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: I would not be surprised if they do amigo. This clipper is getting stronger. Thanks for that info btw. DTX upped there snowfall amounts, but due to post-commute timing chose to forego a WWA. Prolly pull out a short-fused SWS I would imagine at some point if it pounds like they are hinting at. Not like everyone is on a day shift schedule and home in their garages after 7 pm in such a major metro, SMH. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Getting smoked up here...if this holds we should end up with around 5" I think. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Light Snow just started here. Temp went from 38 to 34.7 in about 5 minutes. Looking at an inch or 2. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 44 minutes ago, Stacsh said: Light Snow just started here. Temp went from 38 to 34.7 in about 5 minutes. Looking at an inch or 2. You should try smoking more...like Madtown 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: You should try smoking more...like Madtown Coming down pretty good. Looks like we are the heavy band for about an hour or 2. Maybe 2-3” at this rate. Didn’t accumulate right away due to warmer surface temps. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Sorry...but these bands mean business 20211129_170133.mp4 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, Madtown said: Sorry...but these bands mean business 20211129_170133.mp4 How are you still snowing way back in WI? Thought this was a quick-hitter Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Deja-vu...all over again 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2nd WWA in a row....in less than a week. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 549 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 MIZ047-048-053-060-061-068>070-075-076-082-083-300700- /O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0008.211130T0000Z-211130T0900Z/ Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 549 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will arrive after 7 PM this evening. Most of the snow accumulations will be occurring over a relatively short time period focussed between 8 PM and Midnight. Brief intervals of heavy snow, with rates up to an inch per hour are possible during the evening hours. 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Deja-vu...all over again Is this a fast start to Winter or what...... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1st no headlines, now we get an SWS on top of the WWA. Gotta luv it Quote Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 MIZ047-048-053-060-061-068>070-075-076-082-083-300200- Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb- Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 653 PM EST Mon Nov 29 2021 ...Snow Quickly Overspreading the Area... Snow will arrive across the area between 7 PM and 9 PM. Once the snow begins, it will quickly accumulate onto untreated paved surfaces. Some intervals of higher intensity snow can be expected this evening, with rates up to an inch per hour at times. By midnight, snowfall accumulations of around 2 inches are expected across the area. This will result in rapidly worsening road conditions. Those traveling this evening should be prepared for snow covered and slippery roads. $$ SC 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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