GL's Clipper Parade

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Would gladly take a solid 3" to the bank:

 

Shoulda mentioned. I didn't get anything close to 3" until January 31st last winter, so yeah, this would be a big deal for me personally.

[Tom]

8 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Wow! This has really sped-up. Just 24 hrs ago, it wasn't supposed to begin here until 7 pm, then go all night. Now, this latest published guidance from less than an hour ago, has it mostly an evening event, and outta here wrt the real accumulating stuff. Could be some steady flakes coming down when we sit down for our holiday dinner about 4:30 tomorrow. 

 

They say, "Timing is everything"...this would be the perfect outcome in my book if I was in your position.  Hope to see some pics of the snow falling while your out and about!  Congrats to all of you on your 1st WWA!

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

They say, "Timing is everything"...this would be the perfect outcome in my book if I was in your position.  Hope to see some pics of the snow falling while your out and about!  Congrats to all of you on your 1st WWA!

I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry.  Surprised they went with a WWA.  Looks like a bust.  

[jaster220]

48 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry.  Surprised they went with a WWA.  Looks like a bust.  

Well, I guess they feel the pressure to make a decision at the time of the AFD so as to give the public (remember, that's why they exist) some kind of "heads-up" forecast, not just a now-cast. Otherwise, they'd be like anyone looking out their windows and seeing snow falling and saying "there's snow". And, once they pull the trigger, they can't really wobble and take it down as then they will lose more credibility. See my clipper post, I wouldn't envy their job wrt forecasting these things. DTX mentioned it was a "weak or borderline" call for them to go WWA. But, first potential wide-spread slick roads, on a busy holiday travel weekend - have to err on the side of caution imo. It cannot possibly be any more lame than last November's first WWA for white rain that never stuck on pavement throughout the duration.

[Niko]

Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season"

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of two to three inches.

* WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of
  I-69.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season"

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of two to three inches.

* WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of
  I-69.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

Congrats amigo! it's earlier arrival is not helping my travel plans stay on schedule. Just hope to avoid getting caught in an x-way shut-down. Those are the worst!

[Niko]

Just now, jaster220 said:

Congrats amigo! it's earlier arrival is not helping my travel plans stay on schedule. Just hope to avoid getting caught in an x-way shut-down. Those are the worst!

I know what ya mean amigo. Stay safe out there, if venturing outdoors later today.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m not optimistic for here at least. Latest runs are weak and dry.  Surprised they went with a WWA.  Looks like a bust.  

Wow, yeah 12z NAM really dry-slots SWMI all the way up thru Kent. It's a different development from last night's portrayal. Let us know how ya do tho..

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Niko said:

Here is my first WWA for the season y'all.........."Tis the Season"

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-272030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.211127T2000Z-211128T0500Z/
Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
321 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...First widespread accumulationg snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of two to three inches.

* WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan, generally along and south of
  I-69.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

 

 

[Stacsh]

19 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Wow, yeah 12z NAM really dry-slots SWMI all the way up thru Kent. It's a different development from last night's portrayal. Let us know how ya do tho..

Got a dusting so far but the dry slot almost here.  Unless it fills in I nailed it.  Dry slot with drizzle.  Radar trends north.  Euro was right.   

[jaster220]

46 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Got a dusting so far but the dry slot almost here.  Unless it fills in I nailed it.  Dry slot with drizzle.  Radar trends north.  Euro was right.   

Two things hit me. Clippers almost always trend north early season, sometimes south late season. 2nd, can't help but think the warmth of Lake Mich is not your friend with this set-up. It's like a big bathtub full of warm water and the warm air rising is pushing the thermal boundary further north over your way. The NAM also develops a slug of moisture over this way later this evening almost as if confirming the idea that the fgen is better with OH to my SW instead of a warm batch of water. Probably came into play on the clipper 13 days ago as well.

 

[jaster220]

DTX updated AFD

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1032 AM EST Sat Nov 27 2021

.UPDATE...

The elevated warm front has progressed over SE Michigan this morning
with regional radar showing some returns progressing eastward across
the state as fgen begins to light up. Still a few pockets of dry air
to contend with before snow begins reaching the ground in earnest,
evidenced by elevated ceiling heights and the 12z DTX sounding. This
process won`t take long as forcing begins to ramp up with the parent
low pressure tracking into southern Wisconsin over the next few
hours. Did bump up pops on the early end as there have been some obs
over western and central Michigan indicating snow is already
beginning to reach the ground. Forecast remains on track in that a
general 2 to 3 inch snowfall is still expected across much of the
central forecast area through the afternoon and evening. Peak
snowfall rates of about 0.10 to 0.25 inches per hour are expected
with temperatures mainly in the lower 30s allowing snow to
accumulate on roadways. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in good
shape. Snow then tapers off around midnight as the low pressure
tracks along the Michigan/Ohio border.

[Stacsh]

Dry slot hit the west side of GR but has filled back in here on NE side.    Currently Light snow almost 1/2” otg.   Looks like an inch to 1 1/2 “ will be tops.  Not gonna hit 3”, but good appetizer for the upcoming winter.  Might go fire up the snowblower for a test pull.  
 

added a pic for reference of locale.   Close call on the dry slot.  

[westMJim]

12 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Dry slot hit the west side of GR but has filled back in here on NE side.

Still around 1/4 inch here with some light snow still falling.

[Clinton]

The Michigan/Ohio St game looks great with the snow falling.  Football is better with snow!

[Stacsh]

22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Michigan/Ohio St game looks great with the snow falling.  Football is better with snow!

Go blue!!!

[Stacsh]

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Go blue!!!

Yes sir!!! And now moderate snow falling.  A beautiful day!  

[Mr Marine Layer]

Snowy football game. 

[westMJim]

Congregations to MICHIGAN  in their big win over ohio state. There is just under one inch of new snow on the ground here and the roads are snow-covered and slippery. The current temperature is 30 here with light snow falling. We were on the south side of town doing some shopping and there is more snow here than is the Rivertown Mall area in SW GR.

[Niko]

A lot of areas are in the 2-5inch range. Very impressive for some. For the Detroit Metro Airport so far, snow depth is about 4.2 inches. Ann Arbor is at 4.2." Even Lansing did great as well (in the 4.0"+ range). I think that will be the final count as this clipper has rolled on through the area. Not too shabby at all. It is a "Winter Wonderland" out there. Absolutely beautiful. Temps are holding in the upper 20s to around 30F attm.

[jaster220]

Extra 2 hours of stressful driving, but didn't let the early arrival of this system derail our holiday plan. Stepped out to warm the ride at 11:30 and the first tiny flakes were just falling. 45 mins later I was stuck in my first x-way gridlock almost 3 full hours before the headline was due to begin. This thing just could not wait to get here I guess, lol. At least 25 slide-offs and crashes. North of Lansing the snow got noticeably deeper and a car and truck had tangled. They were way off in a swampy ditch with the car engulfed in 5 foot high flames. Entire fam standing out in the cold and snow watching helplessly. Snow was barely falling when we got to Frankenmuth and there was just a dusting there in town, mostly just wet pavement and mood flakes. We were running behind plan so photos weren't priority one. Didn't snow at all as we enjoyed a fantastic dinner, but we get 4 miles out of town and it was suddenly pouring flakes again! 2.5 to as much as 3.5" seemed common along the Lansing to Detroit corridor. Due to being a holiday weekend, the road crews were hit or miss. Some freeways were finally being plowed, but I saw passing lanes un-drivable too. Very picturesque night as we came into Canton.

Couple pics out my front door

 

[Niko]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Extra 2 hours of stressful driving, but didn't let the early arrival of this system derail our holiday plan. Stepped out to warm the ride at 11:30 and the first tiny flakes were just falling. 45 mins later I was stuck in my first x-way gridlock almost 3 full hours before the headline was due to begin. This thing just could not wait to get here I guess, lol. At least 25 slide-offs and crashes. North of Lansing the snow got noticeably deeper and a car and truck had tangled. They were way off in a swampy ditch with the car engulfed in 5 foot high flames. Entire fam standing out in the cold and snow watching helplessly. Snow was barely falling when we got to Frankenmuth and there was just a dusting there in town, mostly just wet pavement and mood flakes. We were running behind plan so photos weren't priority one. Didn't snow at all as we enjoyed a fantastic dinner, but we get 4 miles out of town and it was suddenly pouring flakes again! 2.5 to as much as 3.5" seemed common along the Lansing to Detroit corridor. Due to being a holiday weekend, the road crews were hit or miss. Some freeways were finally being plowed, but I saw passing lanes un-drivable too. Very picturesque night as we came into Canton.

Couple pics out my front door

 

Beautiful pics

[jaster220]

56 minutes ago, Niko said:

A lot of areas are in the 2-5inch range. Very impressive for some. For the Detroit Metro Airport so far, snow depth is about 2.2 inches. Ann Arbor is at 4.2." Even Lansing did great as well (in the 4.0"+ range). I think that will be the final count as this clipper has rolled on through the area. Not too shabby at all. It is a "Winter Wonderland" out there. Absolutely beautiful. Temps are holding in the upper 20s to around 30F attm.

Yep, DTW 4.2" (Looks like somehow that convection stayed "just" south of Canton as we don't have that much here)

[jaster220]

Bet this was nice to see..

[jaster220]

Thumb gonna get hurt tomorrow

[jaster220]

Both GFS and NAM looking much snowier here Tues.

[Clinton]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Both GFS and NAM looking much snowier here Tues.

Another 3 inches possible!

[westMJim]

Here at my house 2.8" of snow fell yesterday. The official snow fall at GRR was 2.7" around the area Muskegon just 1.1" at Lansing they recorded 2.4" of snow fall. Detroit metro reported 4.2" Flint 2.6" Saginaw just 0.4" At Grand Rapids it was the 6th snowiest November 27th at Lansing it was the 11th snowiest (records go back to 1863 at Lansing) At Detroit it was the 5th snowiest November 27th at Flint it was the 4th snowiest Muskegon and Saginaw it was not in the top 20. But over all a very snowy November 27th. At this time it is cloudy and 32 here at my house.

[Niko]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yep, DTW 4.2" (Looks like somehow that convection stayed "just" south of Canton as we don't have that much here)

The "Magnet" has returned in DTW...... but yes, Detroit did very well w this clipper.

[Mr Marine Layer]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Bet this was nice to see..

Would have been easier to see without the fog.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Another 3 inches possible!

Was about to mention..there is also a partB to this. More snow on the way for SMI, as another clipper is on the way. A couple of inches w this is very possible.

[Tom]

23 minutes ago, Niko said:

Was about to mention..there is also a partB to this. More snow on the way for SMI, as another clipper is on the way. A couple of inches w this is very possible.

Let it Snow, Let it Snow...you guys did pretty well I'd say for your first round of snow of the season.  @jaster220, those were picturesque photos you took and I'm sure your getting the holiday vibe!  It's too bad your call of the expected highway debacle became true.  I always feel like the first snowfall of the season "breaks" everyone in...sometimes literally...enjoy the winter scene!

[jaster220]

38 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Would have been easier to see without the fog.

Was prolly just jet blast blowing the snow around. I didn't see any true fog yesterday.

[Stacsh]

Les squall.  Went from calm and sun  to 20 mph wind and near white out in less than a minute.  Some of the best snow rates and ratios you’ll ever see is les.  

[jaster220]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Let it Snow, Let it Snow...you guys did pretty well I'd say for your first round of snow of the season.  @jaster220, those were picturesque photos you took and I'm sure your getting the holiday vibe!  It's too bad your call of the expected highway debacle became true.  I always feel like the first snowfall of the season "breaks" everyone in...sometimes literally...enjoy the winter scene!

You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo

[Stacsh]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo

Roads were awful here.  None plowed or treated.  Main roads were completely snow covered.  So many accidents.   Not usual for a light mid-day snow in West Michigan.  

[Niko]

37 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo

Yes..I remember reading that in one of @Tomprevious posts. Good job Tom!

[Niko]

Upcoming Snow and Ice..."PartB Clipper"

An inch or two

Snow

Upcoming

Start-time

4:00 PM

Monday, 11/29

End-time

12:00 AM

Tuesday, 11/30

 

Snowfall Amount Probability

Greater than 4 in 1%

 

2 - 4 in 16%

 

An inch or two 44%:  not too shabby. I'll take it and run!

 

A coating to an inch 33%

 

Little to no accumulation 6%

 

[Tom]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You'd a thought it was the rear wheel drive 70's era the way Peeps were in the ditch. Everyone busy with holiday plans (many perhaps heading home after a couple days at "Grandma's place"). If they even caught a wx forecast the night before, they were thinking start time was after dark. The fact it kept speeding up and came in so unexpectedly early no doubt even caught the holiday shift road crews off-guard. I mean, it's a gov entity. They gonna take their sweet time shifting gears into winter mode and Nature was forcing their hand. Even tho this wasn't the classic 32F fatty flakes making greasy roads, the ground underneath isn't exactly frozen at all, so cars were making the lanes an icy mess by packing it under tires so the net effects were very similar. Car thermo read 28F almost the entire time so this was unseasonably chilly chunk of air. After hot-hot-hot thru most of October, KDTW is now -1.7F and 263% normal SN for November. Not sure exactly what regions you had in mind when you called for a flip/fast start to winter, but you nailed it for here amigo

I did feel the N & E Sub would have winter settle in when I saw some of the LR signals back in early/mid Nov and the western/southern parts of the Sub to sit on the sidelines.  Glad to see the GL's region finally cashing in early on bc in seasons past it has been the Plains/Upper MW reeling in the snow.  It appears that the eastern Sub will continue in this pattern as we head into the 1st half of Dec.  

[Up_north_MI]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Roads were awful here.  None plowed or treated.  Main roads were completely snow covered.  So many accidents.   Not usual for a light mid-day snow in West Michigan.  

Same for us, our drive from northern lower MI to here in the thumb last night was horrible. It didn’t help that I was towing our 30’ snowmobile trailer either but we saw more accidents then plow trucks on our drive. Here in northern St Clair county the grass is covered with probably close to 3.5” -4” on the ground now but a inch oh that fell in the last 45 minutes. Really starting to look like Christmas out there. 

[jaster220]

Hope this line dropping S is as interesting as the radar looks

[snowstorm83]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Hope this line dropping S is as interesting as the radar looks

Looks like it was given a snow squall warning. Pretty wild. At least some peeps have gotten the ball rolling with winter. DTW has a -1.7 depature for November with 5" of snow so far. 

[Madtown]

2-3" maybe 4" tomorrow if all goes as planned.

[jaster220]

18z Euro stays steady with about 1.5" Monday night here. Keeps all other snow north of here going forward tho fwiw.

 

[jaster220]

18z NAM was more robust with qpf, but keeps things further N, with a brutal cut-off for me. Must be noted, it was still making adjustments at this range for yesterday.

[jaster220]

18z GFS is more south in the Euro's camp.

[jaster220]

12z CMC south but a bit stingy for Wayne Cnty.

[jaster220]

Nice

Quote

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
753 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021

MIZ049-055-290300-
Huron-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe and Sandusky
753 PM EST Sun Nov 28 2021

...Winter Weather Advisory in Effect...

As of 745 PM, a band of heavy snow extended from Port Austin
south to Bad Axe to just east of Marlette. Snowfall rates within
this band of snow are exceeding an inch per hour. Between 8 PM and
10 PM, this band of heavy snow will slowly move east toward the
Lake Huron shoreline and will affect locations in and near Harbor
Beach and Forestville. Drivers can expect snow covered roads and
very poor visibilities in these snow showers.

 

[jaster220]

Dang

[jaster220]

A little bit further inland. This region has done very well so far this autumn, and I believe it's due to the very warm lake temps causing the snow to fall further away from the lake.

0524 PM     SNOW             4 SW SMITHVILLE         44.49N 85.21W
11/28/2021  M10.5 INCH       MISSAUKEE          MI   PUBLIC

            12 HR TOTAL FROM 11 N LAKE CITY. SNOW DEPTH
            11 INCHES.