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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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As we officially begin the start of the holiday season this week, we also look forward towards the start of met Winter.  The real question is...what will this DEC bring?  Did the models bust AGAIN on the strength of the Polar Vortex?  Bust on the colder outlook?  Let's get right to it and discuss....

Is there anything to look forward to as a winter wx enthusiast?  Well, IMO, the first 10 days or so of this month will be divided between extreme warmth to the south and brutal cold to the N and E.  In essence, I foresee quite a thermal gradient pattern setting up shop across our Sub due to the lack of high lat blocking and a raging PAC jet plowing systems into the PAC NW/B.C region.  A very dominant N stream seems like a good bet and should last into the middle part of the month.

I remember back in the early Fall nearly every single climate model was showing a weak PV for NOV & DEC but that is obviously not working out as it is has strengthened since the start of NOV from an early weaker PV in OCT that prompted all the blocking.  Forecasting the PV is always a crap shoot and a very Big wild card.  This season expect the unexpected wrt to the PV.  I'll be honest, at this point I don't see a major disruption this season.  We will have to see where the Strat warming events show up eventually over the Arctic regions to see if the PV ends up being more N/S oriented, or rather, stretched out in a way that creates a Cross Polar Flow to produce any significant sustained cold for the U.S.

 

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0z EPS 5-day temp mean showing this temp gradient pattern over next 2 weeks...

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Snowfall through the 11th....

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By the middle part of the month I do see a strong signal for a SER to develop and could last through the end of DEC.  A significant rise in the SOI is a clear indication of this and some of LR clues I see mirror this idea.  Now, this is a good and bad pattern for snow lovers as it will create a favorable SW Flow and match's up pretty well with the LRC that is suggesting an active SW Flow part of the pattern to evolve by the time we enter the Week of the 12th.  The question is, will there be warm cutters or not....this is what I will be monitoring over the coming days.  The aforementioned pattern for the 1s half of the month reminds me of DEC '16 or '17 (can't remember exactly) whereby the N Sub was getting hit over and over again. 

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Screen Shot 2021-11-27 at 3.48.13 AM.png

 

With that being said, the CFSv2 says "Winter Delayed"....

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But it does suggest what I alluded to previously...quite the active N Sub...

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0z Euro/GFS Op and the rest of the models have lost the weekend storm but the GEFS/EPS members still show a formidable storm.  At this range, expect to see volatility in this pattern as the models try to figure out the thermal gradient.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

0z Euro/GFS Op and the rest of the models have lost the weekend storm but the GEFS/EPS members still show a formidable storm.  At this range, expect to see volatility in this pattern as the models try to figure out the thermal gradient.

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Thx Tom. Climo would argue N for anything of substance, S would be a weaker wave imo. Dec 2016 was snowy til the 16th and included IA & IL. 2017 was more like the gradient shown on your map. That's most likely the one you're remembering.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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12z GFS is full of action and some wicked cold!  @jaster220 yesterday I asked if you could get snow with a trough out west, the 12z GFS is somewhat close to how I envision Dec going from the 6th to the 13th.  That's why I asked, the blocking looks to do well for you!  I know in that type of pattern the rain/snow line can get a little close for comfort, lets hope the blocking can hold.

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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS might be picking up on the start of cycle 2 of the LRC.  First with the cut-off low that tracked up from the Gulf to the lower lakes on Oct 6th and then a inside slider that ejected from the 4 corners area on Oct 10th/11th.

609081279_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-246(1).thumb.gif.e50c70f47409d05739355380221fd9be.gif

gfs_mslpa_us_fh180-246.thumb.gif.aefcf37a577c73077a70f9b9bf42eb93.gif

Per my reply to Tom. N (meaning north of me here in Motown) = strong per climo (check). Shoulder season storms love to rain here (aside from today's robust clipper ofc). That's the exact path the 3/5/12 Big Dog took that buried TC in 24". Perfect "climo run" buddy. Not saying it's locked in by any means, but as-is, dat be a big rainer for here. I'd be fine if we dialed that back to say 999mb running south of me up the OHV. Wait. Where'd I see that? Oh yeah, the Euro yesterday? Don't take my comments wrong, it's nice to see winter action and potential to turn a corner.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS might be picking up on the start of cycle 2 of the LRC.  First with the cut-off low that tracked up from the Gulf to the lower lakes on Oct 6th and then a inside slider that ejected from the 4 corners area on Oct 10th/11th.

609081279_gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh180-246(1).thumb.gif.e50c70f47409d05739355380221fd9be.gif

gfs_mslpa_us_fh180-246.thumb.gif.aefcf37a577c73077a70f9b9bf42eb93.gif

Clinton, I'll also add this to your post above as I'm also seeing a similar pattern evolving during this period up in the Strat.  Believe it or not, I haven't paid much attn to this development but it does appear we are going to see a similar Strat warming event over Canada to develop next month.  Like clock work, as we open up Dec we have a cold strat that turns marketably warmer within the 1st 10 days.  This should promote a similar pattern to the one we saw back in Oct but without the high lat blocking.  We will have to rely on the EPO and the WPO as our atmospheric drivers to seed the cold into the lower 48 pattern.  I do remember back in Oct we had a +EPO for pretty much the entire month and I don't see that forecast changing for the next 2 weeks.  

 

Dec 1st....

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Dec 7th...this would lead us into the 1st full week of the LRC cycle 2???  If, the LRC is indeed around a 58-60 day cycle this would fit right on...

 

 

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To add more to the comment above, according to the GEFS and JMA models, the MJO is forecast to head solidly into Phase 7 and suggesting a beeline into Phase 8.  Model contradictions in the medium and long term...volatility is a certainty...I'm hopeful that this early DEC pullback won't last as long as the models are suggesting.  The cold will eventually "press" but as far as timing it out...I'd say at this point somewhere around the 14th/15th into the Winter Solstice period.  I'm using the strat animation maps that are signaling this trend out beyond 2 weeks.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Clinton, I'll also add this to your post above as I'm also seeing a similar pattern evolving during this period up in the Strat.  Believe it or not, I haven't paid much attn to this development but it does appear we are going to see a similar Strat warming event over Canada to develop next month.  Like clock work, as we open up Dec we have a cold strat that turns marketably warmer within the 1st 10 days.  This should promote a similar pattern to the one we saw back in Oct but without the high lat blocking.  We will have to rely on the EPO and the WPO as our atmospheric drivers to seed the cold into the lower 48 pattern.  I do remember back in Oct we had a +EPO for pretty much the entire month and I don't see that forecast changing for the next 2 weeks.  

 

Dec 1st....

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Dec 7th...this would lead us into the 1st full week of the LRC cycle 2???  If, the LRC is indeed around a 58-60 day cycle this would fit right on...

 

 

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Very cool with the strat developing like that, I have some concerns that the lack of blocking in this time frame could mean a weak and warmer storm.

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Hmmmm, now this is interesting...today's 12z GEFS surface pressure & 500mb maps are trending favorably by next weekend...Canadian HP's #SeedTheCold...

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The model is definitely trending towards Phase 7 of the MJO...I'd like to see what the Euro/EPS show today and see more consistency over the next couple days.

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

Hmmmm, now this is interesting...today's 12z GEFS surface pressure & 500mb maps are trending favorably by next weekend...Canadian HP's #SeedTheCold...

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The model is definitely trending towards Phase 7 of the MJO...I'd like to see what the Euro/EPS show today and see more consistency over the next couple days.

Now that could be a game changer to my previous post.  Lots of days left. Can the MJO be the driver with the other teleconnections being conflicting?

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Now that could be a game changer to my previous post.  Lots of days left.

Maybe, just maybe I can somehow unlock that snow magnet when I come back home...meantime, big time trends towards more of a trough across the eastern CONUS...

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This morning's Euro has six of the next ten days reaching 50º or above here in CR.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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@Clinton

GFS finally showing some #snow down your way fwiw:

image.png.2628a0cbc675e5ecf36b971065c0e789.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z Canadian...Winter is coming to a place near you....getting real close to a more widespread snowstorm...come on baby...baby steps

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I think that is a widespread snowstorm, just not if you're south of the 4th tier of counties in The MItt. Did you mean elsewhere, like yby? Haha, I think she's not happy with you hanging out in Zona so long. Saying "you wanna see winter? then get yer a$$ back here buddy!"

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Maybe, just maybe I can somehow unlock that snow magnet when I come back home...meantime, big time trends towards more of a trough across the eastern CONUS...

1.gif
 

Is it just me?  That looks like a monster trough to my eyes.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Is it just me?  That looks like a monster trough to my eyes.

These are trend maps so not to be perceived as the end result…temp trends have also gone cooler across the GL’s/MW.   If the next few runs continue, it’ll prob end up being a big trough.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Now that could be a game changer to my previous post.  Lots of days left. Can the MJO be the driver with the other tele-connections being conflicting?

It seems to have zero problem doing just that when the forcing signal is for warmth. Proof will be in the pudding as they say tho..

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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43 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

This is the day Gary predicted will be the day the first inch of snow will be #hmmm

Yes a repeat of the pattern from Oct 10th/11th and the storm I predicted about a week to early when it looked like the cycle length was 50 days.  Lets see how it goes and if this 58 day pattern can stick.

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I keep thinking something has to change, but at least the individual operational model runs keep going back to the same warmth, time and again.

12Z Euro has me below average on 2(!) of the 41 forecast frames in the run and I average 12.0 degrees above normal the next 10 days.

12Z GFS has me at +13.5 degrees the next 10 days and +10.4 degrees for it's 16 day run.

 

393515576_12ZEuro.gif

1748023833_12ZGFS.gif

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Ha.  December may end up being even warmer than November overall, at least for my area.  KC hasn't had a below normal month temp-wise since May.  Last year for November through March, only February was below normal.  The year before that, only November was below normal.  So out of 11 winterish months over the last three years (including this November) we've had 2 below normal months -- or 18 percent of the months.  If you stick to the true winter months, we're at 16%.  Winter around here is becoming an exercise in futility.  

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I remember last year when GFS kept showing me right on the line of snow/rain and when the storm actually came it was a pounding of snow. I hope it does that again this year because that's what it looks like it wants to do now.

I hope this warm and rain can stay away, the hills here did their best to get open but they don't have a lot of base. A few warm rainy days and I'll be back to waiting for cold dry nights for them to blow snow, let alone waiting just for actual real snow.

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Positive overnight trends for the MW/GL's region as the Euro/EPS/GFS sniffing out the return of the Greenland Block??   This would be welcomed and a sign the LRC would be cycling through the beginning of the cycle.  This is a dramatic flip actually after days and days of runs showing a +NAO.  Let's see if this is a fluke or not over the next few days.

 

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The active pattern in and around the GL"s region looks to continue well beyond this coming weekend into the following next week.  In fact, the 00z EPS/GEFS are sniffing out a larger scale "cutter".  Hopefully the Greenland Block can grow in the coming days to allow for a better snowier solution across the MW.

 

0z EPS next 10 days...#GreatLakesGlacier

 

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NOAA:

Cold aiR advects into the state on Thursday with
a cold front settling back into southern Lower Michigan for Friday
morning. Pattern recognition suggests that a strong fgen response
will be possible along this front both Friday and Saturday with the
jet axis directly overhead. It remains to be seen but very active
weather may occur at next weekend.
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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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The 6th could be an interesting day for Madtown and I.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

GFS has 15 of the next 16 days above normal for KC.  2011-2012 repeat?

I'd say 2016-17 if KC was at all similar to Lincoln. 2011-12 was awful all season across the entire sub, which isn't necessarily the case now. Besides, it's not even December yet. Let's not cancel winter yet.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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19 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I'd say 2016-17 if KC was at all similar to Lincoln. 2011-12 was awful all season across the entire sub, which isn't necessarily the case now. Besides, it's not even December yet. Let's not cancel winter yet.

Ok.  I could go with 16-17 too.  That year, KC got 4.9 inches of snow compared to its 11-12 total of 3.9 inches.  Number 1 and number 3 lowest totals ever in KC.   KC's snow season is much shorter and spottier than yours.  I'm not saying winter is cancelled for the whole sub.  Or even for KC.  But  If we stay above average virtually every day all the way through mid-December, the chances of having a good winter diminish significantly around here.   Up your way, you can have above-average temps and still get snow.  That doesn't happen here. 

I'll be thrilled if things turn around.  But there's zero sign of that yet. 

(And I come here to ***** about it because at least people here understand.  No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do).

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4 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Cold aiR advects into the state on Thursday with
a cold front settling back into southern Lower Michigan for Friday
morning. Pattern recognition suggests that a strong fgen response
will be possible along this front both Friday and Saturday with the
jet axis directly overhead. It remains to be seen but very active
weather may occur at next weekend.

Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Ok.  I could go with 16-17 too.  That year, KC got 4.9 inches of snow compared to its 11-12 total of 3.9 inches.  Number 1 and number 3 lowest totals ever in KC.   KC's snow season is much shorter and spottier than yours.  I'm not saying winter is cancelled for the whole sub.  Or even for KC.  But  If we stay above average virtually every day all the way through mid-December, the chances of having a good winter diminish significantly around here.   Up your way, you can have above-average temps and still get snow.  That doesn't happen here. 

I'll be thrilled if things turn around.  But there's zero sign of that yet. 

(And I come here to ***** about it because at least people here understand.  No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do).


And he was notorious for doing such a few years back when he was NEBwx, lol. It's alright to vent. Nothing more frustrating then wanting snow and getting a shut-out pattern instead. Based on the LRC tho, you may have to resign yourself to an active period or 2 and mostly inactive. At least that's what October looked like to my eyes. My winter last year consisted of (3) snows over a 2 wk period - done.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

   No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do).

I feel that. Everyone here complains about the “harsh” winters. Hardly any complaints about summer. Summers aren’t the worst in the world, but definitely not pleasant either.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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