Jump to content

December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

GFS has 15 of the next 16 days above normal for KC.  2011-2012 repeat?

I'd say 2016-17 if KC was at all similar to Lincoln. 2011-12 was awful all season across the entire sub, which isn't necessarily the case now. Besides, it's not even December yet. Let's not cancel winter yet.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

Cold aiR advects into the state on Thursday with
a cold front settling back into southern Lower Michigan for Friday
morning. Pattern recognition suggests that a strong fgen response
will be possible along this front both Friday and Saturday with the
jet axis directly overhead. It remains to be seen but very active
weather may occur at next weekend.

Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

Ok.  I could go with 16-17 too.  That year, KC got 4.9 inches of snow compared to its 11-12 total of 3.9 inches.  Number 1 and number 3 lowest totals ever in KC.   KC's snow season is much shorter and spottier than yours.  I'm not saying winter is cancelled for the whole sub.  Or even for KC.  But  If we stay above average virtually every day all the way through mid-December, the chances of having a good winter diminish significantly around here.   Up your way, you can have above-average temps and still get snow.  That doesn't happen here. 

I'll be thrilled if things turn around.  But there's zero sign of that yet. 

(And I come here to ***** about it because at least people here understand.  No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do).


And he was notorious for doing such a few years back when he was NEBwx, lol. It's alright to vent. Nothing more frustrating then wanting snow and getting a shut-out pattern instead. Based on the LRC tho, you may have to resign yourself to an active period or 2 and mostly inactive. At least that's what October looked like to my eyes. My winter last year consisted of (3) snows over a 2 wk period - done.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

   No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do).

I feel that. Everyone here complains about the “harsh” winters. Hardly any complaints about summer. Summers aren’t the worst in the world, but definitely not pleasant either.

  • Like 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. 

I agree 100%. I have noticed that as well.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Today's trends in both blocking and MJO are turning the corner in the model world.  The 12z GEFS continue the theme of more troughing over the central CONUS starting this weekend.

1.gif

Sweet!

DTX might be picking up on this as well:

3:04pm

Quote

Additional shortwave energy also looks quite plausible into the
weekend within this active clipper pattern with a trend to colder
conditions and snow with time. Details of the evolution of an system
at that point of the forecast remains elusive at this point, but it
should be noted that a number of medium range model solutions show a
fairly significant system by the end of this forecast period.

 

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Sweet!

DTX might be picking up on this as well:

3:04pm

 

It is looking good!!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

The GEFS likes your area over the next 2 weeks.  Looking better for a lot of folks aswell.

1639569600-FFYRwGyR8Rc.png

Sweet!!! 😃

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

Lord have mercy if it does bud........

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

Kinda matches w/ what Tom posted right....

https://theweatherforums.com/uploads/monthly_2021_11/1.thumb.gif.7daf47c3b76cc8671cd9a8d9d50823f3.gif

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Kinda matches w/ what Tom posted right....

https://theweatherforums.com/uploads/monthly_2021_11/1.thumb.gif.7daf47c3b76cc8671cd9a8d9d50823f3.gif

Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th.  I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well.  Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th.  I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well.  Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much.

I remember that storm as a matter of fact.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

Well, tbh, this is some of the more serious/interesting MET-speak I've seen out of GRR so something's up. Too early to say how it all plays out, but they wouldn't spend a minute on this if there wasn't something possible in the back of their minds.

Quote
-Forecast confidence low in the longer term

Considerable forecast uncertainty develops later this week into
early next week. Tropical Depression 27W, presently west of Guam, is
expected to undergo recurvature and extratropical transition by mid
week. As this occurs, a pronounced midlatitude Rossby wavetrain is
shown to emerge from the eastern Pacific, as seen in time-longitude
(Hovmoller) sections of 200-mb meridional winds (averaged over 30-
60N). This yet-to-develop wave packet lends considerable uncertainty
downstream over North America after Friday, but the overall signal
is for somewhat amplified flow at 500 mb by 12z Mon, consisting of
an ensemble-mean eastern North America longwave trof and West Coast
ridge. However, the timing/placement of key transient synoptic-scale
features in the extended period are highly uncertain at this
juncture.

 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Niko said:

I remember that storm as a matter of fact.

Actually, I hadn't due to it getting lost inbetween the autumn equinox monster, and the later monster(s) systems. Had to go back and see that it gave DTW a modest 3 or 4 tenths of precip. Not bad, just not that memorable. Iirc, Clinton was posting about it mostly because the track would be favorable for him if it were winter (LRC scouting ahead) and the fact that it had been so horribly boring and dry out that way. Same as lately.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big, Gorgeous group of geese flew over the house tonight.  
 

The unusual thing was it was already dark and they were blasting South like there was no tomorrow.  The big goose up front was really on them and they were working to keep up.  I could barely see them in the sky but they were low yet not stopping for the lake I live by. Just kept powering south.  
Beautiful site to see and hear.  

  • Like 5

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ground Control to Major Tom:  "Return to Base...I repeat - return to Base!"

 

2021-11-29 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_h144-162.gif

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

Dec 5th/6th, I like how the 18z GFS handles it.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z NAM hangs some teaser snow down the chedda curtain Wed morn. Where's all the torch going??

image.png.a9ce7eaed4bc7212a4c47c966de3c2c8.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

OMG, models want to hear Chicago Peeps cry "uncle". Brutal

image.png.14333b1b6817a6b90c3c61a69076dc2f.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

Helluva way to run a torch

image.png.a15db5813f3cafa51e30005e9d58bb17.png

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OMG! The GFS is a flame thrower here in KC for the foreseeable future. Darn it! Please change on the 12z run today. 

 

Clinton.....find me some changes!!!! 

Congrats to all the beautiful snow up in the Great Lakes region...hope you all are enjoying it.  It's winter....at least up there. I watched the Michigan State game Saturday just to see it snowing. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today.  This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW.  It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN.  Just incredible.  I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. 

In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow.   For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive.  Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south.  Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections.  The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO.  See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7.  This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern.  It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO.  The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically.  It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC.  I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays.  This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. 

image.png

 

#ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action.  The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2.  The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period.

1.png

2.png

 

Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense...

3.png

 

 

4.png

 

I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct.  In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event.  Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan.  This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub.  I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far.  This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together.  Good times ahead!

 

 

5.png

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

while it is still too early to put full faith into this possible event this is the write up from the NWS office in GRR.

-Possible snow storm late in the weekend then really cold

So here is where the weather gets glitchy. It turns out we have a

developing Typhoon (Nyatoh) in the western Pacific that is

expected to recurved into the north Pacific over the weekend.

This will buckle the upper air pattern enough of force a

developing trough over Great Lakes late in the weekend. Both the

GFS and ECMWF give Michigan a significant snow storm from this

event in the late Sunday to Monday time frame. How we get that

storm is significantly different on those models. About 70 percent

of the ensembles of both models have this snow storm.

 

The snow storm, if it happens, would be in the late Sunday or

Monday time frame. Behind this storm is VERY COLD air. It is

questionable if the system that develops will be deep enough to

pull this air far enough south to that it gets into this area.

We could have highs in the teens Monday or Tuesday if that does

happens. That in turn would bring a significant lake effect snow

event with it. We will have to keep on eye on this potential event

as it would be the most impactful of the season so far.

Remember it is still a ways off so do not put this in stone yet.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...