GDR Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 So how many day cycle would that put us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: GFS has 15 of the next 16 days above normal for KC. 2011-2012 repeat? I'd say 2016-17 if KC was at all similar to Lincoln. 2011-12 was awful all season across the entire sub, which isn't necessarily the case now. Besides, it's not even December yet. Let's not cancel winter yet. 2 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 2 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Niko said: NOAA: Cold aiR advects into the state on Thursday with a cold front settling back into southern Lower Michigan for Friday morning. Pattern recognition suggests that a strong fgen response will be possible along this front both Friday and Saturday with the jet axis directly overhead. It remains to be seen but very active weather may occur at next weekend. Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: Ok. I could go with 16-17 too. That year, KC got 4.9 inches of snow compared to its 11-12 total of 3.9 inches. Number 1 and number 3 lowest totals ever in KC. KC's snow season is much shorter and spottier than yours. I'm not saying winter is cancelled for the whole sub. Or even for KC. But If we stay above average virtually every day all the way through mid-December, the chances of having a good winter diminish significantly around here. Up your way, you can have above-average temps and still get snow. That doesn't happen here. I'll be thrilled if things turn around. But there's zero sign of that yet. (And I come here to ***** about it because at least people here understand. No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do). And he was notorious for doing such a few years back when he was NEBwx, lol. It's alright to vent. Nothing more frustrating then wanting snow and getting a shut-out pattern instead. Based on the LRC tho, you may have to resign yourself to an active period or 2 and mostly inactive. At least that's what October looked like to my eyes. My winter last year consisted of (3) snows over a 2 wk period - done. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Today's trends in both blocking and MJO are turning the corner in the model world. The 12z GEFS continue the theme of more troughing over the central CONUS starting this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: No one I know in person loves the snow and cold like I do). I feel that. Everyone here complains about the “harsh” winters. Hardly any complaints about summer. Summers aren’t the worst in the world, but definitely not pleasant either. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 Lock it in!! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. I agree 100%. I have noticed that as well. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 42 minutes ago, Niko said: I agree 100%. I have noticed that as well. The GEFS likes your area over the next 2 weeks. Looking better for a lot of folks aswell. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: Today's trends in both blocking and MJO are turning the corner in the model world. The 12z GEFS continue the theme of more troughing over the central CONUS starting this weekend. Sweet! DTX might be picking up on this as well: 3:04pm Quote Additional shortwave energy also looks quite plausible into the weekend within this active clipper pattern with a trend to colder conditions and snow with time. Details of the evolution of an system at that point of the forecast remains elusive at this point, but it should be noted that a number of medium range model solutions show a fairly significant system by the end of this forecast period. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 29, 2021 Report Share Posted November 29, 2021 We're heading for greatness!! In futility that is.... This would put us within 10 days of the all time latest snowfall record I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 This is awful for everybody.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, jaster220 said: Sweet! DTX might be picking up on this as well: 3:04pm It is looking good!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Clinton said: The GEFS likes your area over the next 2 weeks. Looking better for a lot of folks aswell. Sweet!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, Niko said: I bet it takes the inland track. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: I bet it takes the inland track. Lord have mercy if it does bud........ 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: I bet it takes the inland track. Kinda matches w/ what Tom posted right.... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Niko said: Kinda matches w/ what Tom posted right.... Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th. I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well. Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th. I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well. Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much. I remember that storm as a matter of fact. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 46 minutes ago, Clinton said: I bet it takes the inland track. Well, tbh, this is some of the more serious/interesting MET-speak I've seen out of GRR so something's up. Too early to say how it all plays out, but they wouldn't spend a minute on this if there wasn't something possible in the back of their minds. Quote -Forecast confidence low in the longer term Considerable forecast uncertainty develops later this week into early next week. Tropical Depression 27W, presently west of Guam, is expected to undergo recurvature and extratropical transition by mid week. As this occurs, a pronounced midlatitude Rossby wavetrain is shown to emerge from the eastern Pacific, as seen in time-longitude (Hovmoller) sections of 200-mb meridional winds (averaged over 30- 60N). This yet-to-develop wave packet lends considerable uncertainty downstream over North America after Friday, but the overall signal is for somewhat amplified flow at 500 mb by 12z Mon, consisting of an ensemble-mean eastern North America longwave trof and West Coast ridge. However, the timing/placement of key transient synoptic-scale features in the extended period are highly uncertain at this juncture. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, Niko said: I remember that storm as a matter of fact. Actually, I hadn't due to it getting lost inbetween the autumn equinox monster, and the later monster(s) systems. Had to go back and see that it gave DTW a modest 3 or 4 tenths of precip. Not bad, just not that memorable. Iirc, Clinton was posting about it mostly because the track would be favorable for him if it were winter (LRC scouting ahead) and the fact that it had been so horribly boring and dry out that way. Same as lately. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Big, Gorgeous group of geese flew over the house tonight. The unusual thing was it was already dark and they were blasting South like there was no tomorrow. The big goose up front was really on them and they were working to keep up. I could barely see them in the sky but they were low yet not stopping for the lake I live by. Just kept powering south. Beautiful site to see and hear. 5 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Ground Control to Major Tom: "Return to Base...I repeat - return to Base!" 1 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I bet it takes the inland track. So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways. Dec 5th/6th, I like how the 18z GFS handles it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 14 minutes ago, jaster220 said: So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways. Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon). Good times in your region. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 0z NAM hangs some teaser snow down the chedda curtain Wed morn. Where's all the torch going?? 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon). Good times in your region. OMG, models want to hear Chicago Peeps cry "uncle". Brutal 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon). Good times in your region. Helluva way to run a torch 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Euro is very far north with both storms. Takes my 12/7 storm and brings the SLP over Winnipeg. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Not looking good for a cold and snowy December. My man T Swails is close to throwing in the towel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Gary might need to rethink his forecast also 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Euro is very far north with both storms. Takes my 12/7 storm and brings the SLP over Winnipeg. This is doing none of us any favors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather @Madtown are all in the game as well... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Not much for the next 384hrs on the gfs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 OMG! The GFS is a flame thrower here in KC for the foreseeable future. Darn it! Please change on the 12z run today. Clinton.....find me some changes!!!! Congrats to all the beautiful snow up in the Great Lakes region...hope you all are enjoying it. It's winter....at least up there. I watched the Michigan State game Saturday just to see it snowing. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today. This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW. It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN. Just incredible. I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow. For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive. Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south. Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections. The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO. See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7. This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern. It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO. The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically. It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC. I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays. This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. #ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action. The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2. The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period. Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense... I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct. In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event. Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan. This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub. I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far. This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together. Good times ahead! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 while it is still too early to put full faith into this possible event this is the write up from the NWS office in GRR. -Possible snow storm late in the weekend then really cold So here is where the weather gets glitchy. It turns out we have a developing Typhoon (Nyatoh) in the western Pacific that is expected to recurved into the north Pacific over the weekend. This will buckle the upper air pattern enough of force a developing trough over Great Lakes late in the weekend. Both the GFS and ECMWF give Michigan a significant snow storm from this event in the late Sunday to Monday time frame. How we get that storm is significantly different on those models. About 70 percent of the ensembles of both models have this snow storm. The snow storm, if it happens, would be in the late Sunday or Monday time frame. Behind this storm is VERY COLD air. It is questionable if the system that develops will be deep enough to pull this air far enough south to that it gets into this area. We could have highs in the teens Monday or Tuesday if that does happens. That in turn would bring a significant lake effect snow event with it. We will have to keep on eye on this potential event as it would be the most impactful of the season so far. Remember it is still a ways off so do not put this in stone yet. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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