Jump to content

December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

1.png

2.png

 

Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap!

@jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+.

  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today.  This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW.  It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN.  Just incredible.  I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. 

In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow.   For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive.  Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south.  Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections.  The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO.  See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7.  This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern.  It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO.  The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically.  It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC.  I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays.  This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. 

image.png

 

#ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action.  The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2.  The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period.

1.png

2.png

 

Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense...

3.png

 

 

4.png

 

I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct.  In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event.  Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan.  This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub.  I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far.  This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together.  Good times ahead!

 

 

5.png

 

 

Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO!

It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather.  I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now!

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

1.png

2.png

 

Then it gets absolutely nerfed by unseasonable temps.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the 06z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

dwm500_test_20211011.gif

  • Like 3

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Totally agree.  But this year is even worse than most so far.  We haven't even been close to any winter weather.  Usually by now there has been a near miss or two (or at least something forecasted to just miss us).  This year, we can't even get the cold air, much less the combo of cold air and precip.  I didn't think the GFS could get any worse than yesterday's forecast for one below normal day in the next sixteen.  But the 06z run has zero below normal days.  On top of that, there's less than .25 inches of precip forecasted for the next two weeks.  I'm telling you man, echoes of 2011-2012 are getting louder and louder.   

I remember that year and how there were hardly any storms in the pattern anywhere.  So I don't think it will be like that, lets see how the next 3 weeks play out before we declare this season a loss.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even a solid rain event would be nice.  I am going to water my shrubs again today and I'll probably do it again in a couple weeks.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I think the 6z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

dwm500_test_20211011.gif

Looks good lets see what happens!  We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks good lets see what happens!  We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer.

Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something!  If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. 🥴

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap!

@jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+.

GRR AFD talking about possible snowstorm next Sunday/Monday.  Euro and GFS are similar in W to E track.  Someone could see so long duration snows out of this.  Might need a thread soon. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something!  If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. 🥴

Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm around the 8th in the "slot".

Also 12z GFS has it as well .

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm a storm around the 8th in the "slot".

Also 12z GFS has it as well .

Yeah, I think the models have been slowly starting to pick up on the Oct 11 storm. A positive +AO and +NAO might work together to produce a weaker and warmer system. Hopefully that doesn't happen....time will tell I guess...lol

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. 

Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November.

I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is doing none of us any favors.

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

Right on. Check out what happned last year. The AO shot negative around the 1st of December. Once that happened we seen our snow. Check out how deep negative that thing got come Feb!!! I had highs below zero then. It will turn cold and snowy, only question is when will the teleconnections start playing ball!!! 

2_15_21.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November.

I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln.

That would be correct, Omaha's record is 72. Same day Lincoln set it's record (12/6/1939)

  • Like 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather.  I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now!

You'd be more than welcomed buddy! Too bad it's not so convenient, eh? I totally get the frustrations too. I think, as we get deeper into an actual winter month, some better chances are bound to start popping up. Hang tough out there.

  • Thanks 1
  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

1.png

2.png

 

Not sure I want to jinx this marginal temp set-up with a thread, lol. But, would you be kind enough to share those panel images from either the Euro, or was it the GEFS?? Idk, but one of those was hinting at an OHV system a while back when I commented about it being kinda far away.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In addition to the solid snow event, this morning's Euro follows it with brief, bitter cold.  It has a high temp of 11º here the day after the snow.  It's probably just teasing.

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing but warm rainers on the gfs.  Hope it changes.  But if the clipper pattern goes away I guess that’s what we get this time of year.  Cold is staying away for now that’s for sure.  I should just move to Alaska.  
 

I played golf when it hit near 60 and muggy last December 21st so this isn’t shocking anymore.  It’s becoming the norm.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA:

With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the
aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to
periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm
system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as
a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore
over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level
flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the
Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on
this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still
very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the
country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a
cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next
week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree.
  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

As is the cold.  Two record (or near-record) highs being forecasted for KC in the mid-term (after this week's expected record high on Thursday).   The GFS is now back to giving KC a single day of below normal temps over the next 16 days.  Hopefully the GFS is as wrong as it usually is.   But since October it's been pretty spot on with the AN temps.  I mean come on.  It's almost off the scale: 

gfs_T2ma_us_52.png

While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did.

1638921600-inVIJD9ERPM.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...