Niko Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather @Madtown are all in the game as well... Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap! @jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+. 1 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today. This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW. It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN. Just incredible. I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow. For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive. Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south. Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections. The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO. See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7. This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern. It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO. The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically. It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC. I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays. This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. #ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action. The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2. The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period. Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense... I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct. In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event. Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan. This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub. I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far. This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together. Good times ahead! Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 31 minutes ago, MIKEKC said: Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO! It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather. I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather @Madtown are all in the game as well... Then it gets absolutely nerfed by unseasonable temps. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I think the 06z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs. 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Totally agree. But this year is even worse than most so far. We haven't even been close to any winter weather. Usually by now there has been a near miss or two (or at least something forecasted to just miss us). This year, we can't even get the cold air, much less the combo of cold air and precip. I didn't think the GFS could get any worse than yesterday's forecast for one below normal day in the next sixteen. But the 06z run has zero below normal days. On top of that, there's less than .25 inches of precip forecasted for the next two weeks. I'm telling you man, echoes of 2011-2012 are getting louder and louder. I remember that year and how there were hardly any storms in the pattern anywhere. So I don't think it will be like that, lets see how the next 3 weeks play out before we declare this season a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Even a solid rain event would be nice. I am going to water my shrubs again today and I'll probably do it again in a couple weeks. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, mlgamer said: I think the 6z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs. Looks good lets see what happens! We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, Clinton said: Looks good lets see what happens! We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer. Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something! If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap! @jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+. GRR AFD talking about possible snowstorm next Sunday/Monday. Euro and GFS are similar in W to E track. Someone could see so long duration snows out of this. Might need a thread soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 hours ago, mlgamer said: Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something! If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm around the 8th in the "slot". Also 12z GFS has it as well . 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 32 minutes ago, tStacsh said: GRR AFD talking about possible snowstorm next Sunday/Monday. Euro and GFS are similar in W to E track. Someone could see so long duration snows out of this. Might need a thread soon. 12z GFS is way north. D**n 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 GFS has the storm on December 7-8 back, but it looks like it isn't that organized. Seems like two pieces of energy need to come together. Until this shows up on more than one run, I am not getting my hopes up, but hopefully it's a sign of things to come. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 48 minutes ago, Clinton said: Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm a storm around the 8th in the "slot". Also 12z GFS has it as well . Yeah, I think the models have been slowly starting to pick up on the Oct 11 storm. A positive +AO and +NAO might work together to produce a weaker and warmer system. Hopefully that doesn't happen....time will tell I guess...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Lolz... First it was September, then October, then November, then Thanksgiving, then beginning of December, and now around Christmas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November. I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Growing season is gonna start again if this torch fest doesn't end soon. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Clinton said: This is doing none of us any favors. Right on. Check out what happned last year. The AO shot negative around the 1st of December. Once that happened we seen our snow. Check out how deep negative that thing got come Feb!!! I had highs below zero then. It will turn cold and snowy, only question is when will the teleconnections start playing ball!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Forecasting 72 here Thursday and 67 tomorrow as well. Kids were disappointed to have to wear long sleeves to school today... On the last day of November. I'm not sure what the all time record high for December is here, but would guess it's a bit lower than Lincoln. That would be correct, Omaha's record is 72. Same day Lincoln set it's record (12/6/1939) 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Early spring? Or no winter? Has nothing to do with global warming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12z GEFS picking up on the storm between the 8-10th. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Clinton said: It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather. I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now! You'd be more than welcomed buddy! Too bad it's not so convenient, eh? I totally get the frustrations too. I think, as we get deeper into an actual winter month, some better chances are bound to start popping up. Hang tough out there. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 6 hours ago, Tom said: The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather @Madtown are all in the game as well... Not sure I want to jinx this marginal temp set-up with a thread, lol. But, would you be kind enough to share those panel images from either the Euro, or was it the GEFS?? Idk, but one of those was hinting at an OHV system a while back when I commented about it being kinda far away. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 All time records in jeopardy on Thursday 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12z Euro at hr144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The torch is about to run out of fuel (for awhile) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 On phone but the 12z Euro showing a solid hit for many for the 7th/8th 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, Tom said: On phone but the 12z Euro showing a solid hit for many.. It's a start. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, GDR said: 13 would work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, GDR said: Dial up #4 for the Sub… 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: 13 would work! Not greedy so that would work with me as well…#sharethewealth 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, Tom said: Not greedy so that would work with me as well…#sharethewealth A little blocking just in time? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 What a change in temps in one run from the GEFS. Every model today has flipped week 2 temps. 6z run 12z run 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 In addition to the solid snow event, this morning's Euro follows it with brief, bitter cold. It has a high temp of 11º here the day after the snow. It's probably just teasing. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 And poof it’s gone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Nothing but warm rainers on the gfs. Hope it changes. But if the clipper pattern goes away I guess that’s what we get this time of year. Cold is staying away for now that’s for sure. I should just move to Alaska. I played golf when it hit near 60 and muggy last December 21st so this isn’t shocking anymore. It’s becoming the norm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 NOAA: With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, someweatherdude said: As is the cold. Two record (or near-record) highs being forecasted for KC in the mid-term (after this week's expected record high on Thursday). The GFS is now back to giving KC a single day of below normal temps over the next 16 days. Hopefully the GFS is as wrong as it usually is. But since October it's been pretty spot on with the AN temps. I mean come on. It's almost off the scale: While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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