Jump to content

December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did.

1638921600-inVIJD9ERPM.png

How can I argue? <200 hr map in play

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential:

image.png.2aff51c398f0cf06b58046c05e07d9a4.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the
aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to
periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm
system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as
a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore
over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level
flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the
Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on
this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still
very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the
country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a
cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next
week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree.

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

Bud, my forecast starting from Sunday and into next week looks crazy. Its all over the place.  A lot has to get sort out and its definitely a yoyo. I guess they are seeing some very active weather, but still need to put all the pieces together. Kinda like an unsolved puzzle that needs to put all details in one piece.  The good thing about this is that we have "Active" weather here in the Lower Lakes. I'd tell ya one thing though, someone is going to get alotta snow next week. Question is..'Who."

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential:

image.png.2aff51c398f0cf06b58046c05e07d9a4.png

You just have to luv how we continue to get pound w/snow after snow after snow. Small break tomorrow and Thursday and then, it turns colder and back to active weather.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows.

I want a 18-22 degree temp, west wind clipper, cold front, pure arctic air 6-10 inches of cold fluffy snow and a blizzard warning.   Is that too much to ask?   

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z GFS operational back to system next week for many reading-- Those 18Z runs with no upper air are a big reason why Euro and CMC only go out short/medium range. Still many changes in the next 5-6 days as is to be expected but keep those 18Z/06Z runs off the table until inside 72 hours. snku_024h.us_mw.png

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight's Euro still has the system, but farther northeast because the cold air behind the Sunday front doesn't dig as far south.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Welcome to meteorological winter. Here is how Grand Rapids Michigan ended up in November 2021.

At Grand Rapids November came in with a mean of 38.5 that is -1.5° below the new 30 year average. There was a total of 9.7” of snow fall that is above the new 60 year average of 7.1. A total of 2.22” of rain and melted snow fall. That is below the average of 3.10. The high for the month was 65 on the 7th and the low was 18 on the 23.  November was the 1st month of below average temperatures since July and the coldest compared to average since May.

 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Not what you want to see wrt to the MJO per the Euro as it goes back to Phase 6 Week 2...

image.png

 

On the flip side, the JMA keeps it in Phase 7...battle it out...

image.png

This was the point I was making before wrt model accuracy in forecasting the MJO not being much better than any other facet of the wx. Prolly the recent warming event pushing the true cold plunge til later. We saw this a couple years ago too iirc.

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is weak in the cold sector.  Also, one negative for this system, at least for more western areas like Iowa, is the Sunday front sweeps the moisture way down into the gulf.  By the time the moisture can lift back up into the midwest the snow system is east of Iowa.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Clinton

Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel.

I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol.

Oh, and there's always gotta be one..

image.png.d6d1205a5eedd46f86bf417ff3f8e68b.png

  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol

"Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011

  • Like 3

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Clinton

Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel.

I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol.

Oh, and there's always gotta be one..

image.png.d6d1205a5eedd46f86bf417ff3f8e68b.png

It looks good for you, your area is a hot spot right now for snow!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol

"Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

Quote
A more significant storm system (potentially) for the second half of
the weekend as the jet stream finally begins to buckle, leading to
amplification. 00z Euro ensembles are all over the place, from warm
side rain, to southern track and snow storm, with plenty of
solutions indicating nothing. Potential interaction with the
subtropical jet, or lack of, will be key to the forecast.

 

  • Thanks 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Misery loves company.  So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us.  Go figure lol!

The GFS knows we're watching it, so it is deliberately messing with us. At least I hope that's it...🤣

  • lol 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

 

For the Sunday night wave it's going to be hard for you to get much snow. Phase 6 and a spike in the AO at the wrong time. As for the next storm I would need it to slow down and dig a little more. There is still some time.

  • Popcorn 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems.  Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

  • Like 4
  • Weenie 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents

DTX sums things up, lol

 

I just hope the wake of these waves sets up a decent LES event.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems.  Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Im good w 3-6inches...where do i sign for that!!😉

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...