Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I certainly hope it pans out. Despite my pessimism, I still hope for a nice cold and snowy winter. I know and I hope we can merry up the storm next week with enough cold air. I guess time will tell. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: While the operational went back to a warm pattern in week 2 the ensembles went a little colder and the storm on the 8th-10th looks better for KC on the ensembles than the 12z did. How can I argue? <200 hr map in play 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Niko said: NOAA: With abulk of shortwave energy shearing north of the region around the aforementioned ridging, precipitation chances look to be limited to periodic rain/snow shower chances, but with no appreciable storm system. That may change by very late in the weekend into early next week as a more substantial Pacific shortwave is forecast to move onshore over the Pacific NW/British Columbia and then buckle the upper level flow as it digs through the northern plains/upper midwest into the Great Lakes. While medium range models have all already picked up on this system, the spatial/temporal details of the shortwave are still very much in question by the time it reaches this part of the country late in this forecast period. In its wake, it appears a cooler weather regime will set up at least temporarily early next week as the colder airmass over Canada is tapped to some degree. GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 FGF is forecasting 57*F here for tomorrow, which would tie the record set in 1962. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 41 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows. Bud, my forecast starting from Sunday and into next week looks crazy. Its all over the place. A lot has to get sort out and its definitely a yoyo. I guess they are seeing some very active weather, but still need to put all the pieces together. Kinda like an unsolved puzzle that needs to put all details in one piece. The good thing about this is that we have "Active" weather here in the Lower Lakes. I'd tell ya one thing though, someone is going to get alotta snow next week. Question is..'Who." 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 41 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Still a lot of uncertainty. But apparently not enough to forego signalling the potential: You just have to luv how we continue to get pound w/snow after snow after snow. Small break tomorrow and Thursday and then, it turns colder and back to active weather. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: GRR mentioned a couple potentials for snow/storms as well. And it surprisingly was one of their "old hands" not WDM who is the known winter enthusiast. Surprised me tbh, tho I feel their focus is as much on potential backside LES as it is any system snows. I want a 18-22 degree temp, west wind clipper, cold front, pure arctic air 6-10 inches of cold fluffy snow and a blizzard warning. Is that too much to ask? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 00Z GFS operational back to system next week for many reading-- Those 18Z runs with no upper air are a big reason why Euro and CMC only go out short/medium range. Still many changes in the next 5-6 days as is to be expected but keep those 18Z/06Z runs off the table until inside 72 hours. 7 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Canadian is now showing this system as well. 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Tonight's Euro still has the system, but farther northeast because the cold air behind the Sunday front doesn't dig as far south. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 0z GEFS 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 As @Hawkeyementioned, the 0z Euro took a leap N this run and so did the 0z EPS... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Not what you want to see wrt to the MJO per the Euro as it goes back to Phase 6 Week 2... On the flip side, the JMA keeps it in Phase 7...battle it out... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Phase 6 and it will be shorts and Barbecue December Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 long range GFS not backing down on mid-month warmth across the Mid-West. Hope that changes. Usually it's frigid with snowstorms at the end of its runs, so there is a chance this is completely wrong as it usually is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Welcome to meteorological winter. Here is how Grand Rapids Michigan ended up in November 2021. At Grand Rapids November came in with a mean of 38.5 that is -1.5° below the new 30 year average. There was a total of 9.7” of snow fall that is above the new 60 year average of 7.1. A total of 2.22” of rain and melted snow fall. That is below the average of 3.10. The high for the month was 65 on the 7th and the low was 18 on the 23. November was the 1st month of below average temperatures since July and the coldest compared to average since May. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: Not what you want to see wrt to the MJO per the Euro as it goes back to Phase 6 Week 2... On the flip side, the JMA keeps it in Phase 7...battle it out... This was the point I was making before wrt model accuracy in forecasting the MJO not being much better than any other facet of the wx. Prolly the recent warming event pushing the true cold plunge til later. We saw this a couple years ago too iirc. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Forecast high of 62 today. Average is 39. Welcome to met winter! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 GFS on board for mid-week snowstorm next week. Similar to the Euro. Michigan does very well. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 12z is on to something right??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Southern Iowa does ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Not overly strong on this run, but still something. Here is 24 hour snow and total through 7 days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Gets its act together more east of IA. But its a start. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Kicks out faster than previous runs and leaves itself a little moisture starved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 GFS is weak in the cold sector. Also, one negative for this system, at least for more western areas like Iowa, is the Sunday front sweeps the moisture way down into the gulf. By the time the moisture can lift back up into the midwest the snow system is east of Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 12z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 @Clinton Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel. I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol. Oh, and there's always gotta be one.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol "Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago." https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011 3 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: @Clinton Swaths of SN north and south, lol. Like an artist just swiping their paint brush back and forth on the easel. I would say that if you split the difference, The Mitt seems to be kinda at the 50-yard line, lol. Oh, and there's always gotta be one.. It looks good for you, your area is a hot spot right now for snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, mlgamer said: Meanwhile, Denver is sill waiting for their first measurable snowfall...just like me!! lol "Denver will begin the month of December without any snowfall for the first time in history -- and there's still no snow in sight for the near future. The previous record for the latest first snowfall in the city was set on Nov. 21, 1934...The Mile High City has now gone 223 consecutive days without snow as of Tuesday, and is just 12 days away from passing the all-time record of 235 snowless days, a record that was set in 1887, 134 years ago." https://abcnews.go.com/US/denver-waiting-1st-snow-season-breaking-record/story?id=81467011 Misery loves company. So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us. Go figure lol! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: Misery loves company. So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us. Go figure lol! GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents DTX sums things up, lol Quote A more significant storm system (potentially) for the second half of the weekend as the jet stream finally begins to buckle, leading to amplification. 00z Euro ensembles are all over the place, from warm side rain, to southern track and snow storm, with plenty of solutions indicating nothing. Potential interaction with the subtropical jet, or lack of, will be key to the forecast. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: Misery loves company. So this latest run of the GFS has the storm less +tilted and now it looks moisture starved as it moves by us. Go figure lol! The GFS knows we're watching it, so it is deliberately messing with us. At least I hope that's it... 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaster220 said: GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents DTX sums things up, lol For the Sunday night wave it's going to be hard for you to get much snow. Phase 6 and a spike in the AO at the wrong time. As for the next storm I would need it to slow down and dig a little more. There is still some time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems. Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow. 4 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems. Is the stuff in IA just from next tue-wed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 I am not greedy. Give me 1-3 inches to start off the season and I am happy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: GRR mentioned this morning that it'll come down to how much the trough decides to dig, and where exactly the SLP finally forms. That 18z GFS run I posted a day or two ago (the one you liked how it handled things) was prolly the optimal outcome (as all LR GFS runs seem to be). To be clear, I am talking about the Sunday night/Monday wave. I will be really surprised if that one finds a way to snow here in SEMI. Most likely that one gives NMI a decent hit, and we wait to see which path wave 2 takes. My 2 cents DTX sums things up, lol I just hope the wake of these waves sets up a decent LES event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is great if you live in the northern lakes... three good snow systems. Areas farther sw will continue to have trouble getting much out of the fast wnw flow. Im good w 3-6inches...where do i sign for that!! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Looking good for SMI..... 3 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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