Thunder98 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 It was warmer in Dickinson, ND than in LAX today in December! The high there today was 68F! https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDIK.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Tbh, I can't tell by your writing if you considered it a good winter or bad? Kinda mixed sentiments in each break-down. You had multiple solid hits and DJF totals that would've been above my avg's in SWMI. By comparison, thru Jan 30th my largest snowfall was 1.5" and I was sitting at 11.1" for the entire season last winter. By comparison, you had a great winter, or at least you had winter, while it was very elusive for mby. It was a good winter. Feb made it a great one. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, Clinton said: It would not surprise me. Hope you guys get it, looks like t could be a nice one. Thx, but are you trying for Sainthood or something?? Wishing all these "rich get richer" scenarios to play out..SMH! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Not bad. Would give many their first measurable. - 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 minute ago, jaster220 said: Thx, but are you trying for Sainthood or something?? Wishing all these "rich get richer" scenarios to play out..SMH! I pull for everyone to get snow, it's what we're all here to talk about this time of year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: I pull for everyone to get snow, it's what we're all here to talk about this time of year. Kudos amigo. Next thing, OKwx will be in here cheering on your first storm! GFS is almost in your camp.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 GFS trying to sniff out another piece of energy late next week. Teasing Clinton!!! 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Not bad. Would give many their first measurable. - But wait... There's more. Southern energy produces 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 GFS has last winter's pattern, while the ICON shows this year's recent trend. Be interesting to see where this ends up. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Kudos amigo. Next thing, OKwx will be in here cheering on your first storm! GFS is almost in your camp.. Here is how the precip fell on Oct 11th. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Kudos amigo. Next thing, OKwx will be in here cheering on your first storm! GFS is almost in your camp.. And this was the precip totals for the KC area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Watch, Euro that Tom posted yesterday morning will be correct..LOL Ya mean this amigo....... 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Clinton going to like the Canadian 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 The Euro is quite strong with the cold blast Monday... temps falling into the teens with strong wind. The snow system is weak. At least for this run, the warm surge around the 10th is gone. The pattern is much colder. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Hello from Chicago! Glad to be back in the saddle and TBH, I'm excited to be here for the holidays and the colder wx. Once I saw the potential for next weeks wx, I told myself "It's Time"...thankfully, the wx is cooperating today through the weekend to give me time to do ALL of my final yardwork (there is a crap load of leaves) and hopefully have time to put up some Christmas lights outdoors. My flight back to ORD was a bit more turbulent than previous trips. We took the northern route right over the CO Rockies into NE and IA. I flew over Kearney, NE and waved hello to @CentralNebWeather @gabel23 and then just N of OMA, thru IA (my IA peeps)...I saw that we went over Ames, IA but clouds obscured my view so I didn't really pay attn at that point of my trip. Nonetheless, it was another great day of flying with AA and their new Dreamliner 787. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 The "Resilient Ridge" in the west/southwest has earned its mark in this year's LRC. It's rather unfathomable how persistent this ridge has been for the entire month of NOV. While PHX sets an all time record for the # of 80's (25) in Nov, 2nd warmest NOV on record, it broke another record high on Dec 1st (85F). Might tack on a couple more records today and tomorrow. Nov 2017 was the warmest NOV on record (analog for this years pattern?). Nevertheless, the Ridge has a few more days to go before it breaks down some and the SW Flow develops. While flipping through the wx maps, I found an interesting development in the trends off the GEFS 500mb map over Scandinavia and the E PAC where the model is showing more of a ridge blossoming and in turn "presses" the North American trough farther south. It is clear as day that the SW Flow part of the LRC is likely to develop next week. So, to all those who follow the LRC, what is your take on the LRC length this year?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 For those that have been around a few years- old buddy back at it. His take- https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2021/12/long-range-outlook-colder-pattern.html?fbclid=IwAR24geTnRqzh1S8d2x2xxrhsh1ZM8k2sig3DhV14EgMTP5_9VbwM7778U94 4 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 hours ago, Tom said: The "Resilient Ridge" in the west/southwest has earned its mark in this year's LRC. It's rather unfathomable how persistent this ridge has been for the entire month of NOV. While PHX sets an all time record for the # of 80's (25) in Nov, 2nd warmest NOV on record, it broke another record high on Dec 1st (85F). Might tack on a couple more records today and tomorrow. Nov 2017 was the warmest NOV on record (analog for this years pattern?). Nevertheless, the Ridge has a few more days to go before it breaks down some and the SW Flow develops. While flipping through the wx maps, I found an interesting development in the trends off the GEFS 500mb map over Scandinavia and the E PAC where the model is showing more of a ridge blossoming and in turn "presses" the North American trough farther south. It is clear as day that the SW Flow part of the LRC is likely to develop next week. So, to all those who follow the LRC, what is your take on the LRC length this year?? As of today I'm thinking 58 to 59 days, could be as long as 62 days we'll see how the models verify next week. Should be able to confirm it next week. Whats your take? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: For those that have been around a few years- old buddy back at it. His take- https://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2021/12/long-range-outlook-colder-pattern.html?fbclid=IwAR24geTnRqzh1S8d2x2xxrhsh1ZM8k2sig3DhV14EgMTP5_9VbwM7778U94 Good stuff. We may be in the freezer to kick off the new year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Let's go NAM! 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Model Mayhem wrt to the MJO....GEFS/CFSv2 are solidly into Phase 7 by Dec 10th... The Euro is sorta heading that way as well but deciding to straddle Phase 6/7 end of Week 2... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Going for the record high today. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 The overnight low here at my house was a mild 45. At this time it is clear and 47. There are some clouds off to the NW. The snow that fell is now of course all If the CFSv2 long range guess is correct then the month of December looks to be maybe mild and somewhat wet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/ There is a chance of a cool down around Christmas week but that is still a long ways off. Brett Anderson at Acculess weather also has it on the mild side until late December so we shall see how this plays out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 6 hours ago, Tom said: Hello from Chicago! Glad to be back in the saddle and TBH Welcome back home! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 That’s a lot of brown 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Think I found the correct thread. Just moved to Kentucky (used to live in Oregon!) and I got to Ashland on Nov 21st. Can't wait for the t'storms next Spring and Summer! 4 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 22 minutes ago, Clinton said: Going for the record high today. Is 66 today significant here? I have to re-learn all the local "what's unusual" and what isn't. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Is 66 today significant here? I have to re-learn all the local "what's unusual" and what isn't. Yes the record high today for KC is 70. I'm forecasted to hit 74. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Clinton said: Yes the record high today for KC is 70. I'm forecasted to hit 74. Meant for Ashland, KY. I might be done with 70's at my location until next year. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 27 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Think I found the correct thread. Just moved to Kentucky (used to live in Oregon!) and I got to Ashland on Nov 21st. Can't wait for the t'storms next Spring and Summer! Welcome to the Midwest subforum! Much less bickering than the West, though still some. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Is 66 today significant here? I have to re-learn all the local "what's unusual" and what isn't. Looks to be well above average, with average highs in the upper 40s. 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 10 hours ago, james1976 said: Jim Flowers already calling off winter. This is from his Facebook: This is an important reminder, my best fit winter was 2008-2009. If I recall there was only one snow greater than 5” and that was in December. Most of the winters had totals of 20-22”. We are not looking at much this winter no matter how you cut it. I was waiting for the first one to fold and call it. Almost made a post yesterday asking for first bets on who will cancel winter. The GFS is a sad piece of work for sure. I'm not happy either, but this weather is keeping everyone off my ski hill, I didn't have to wait in line once all afternoon yesterday, though they opened up at 2pm, so the sun and heat started to melt the man made snow, then the sun goes down and it all turns to ice. Honestly compared to how the lines and everything was last year I actually don't mind this very much. As long as we don't get a lot of rain and warm, or we get some good chances to make snow (Monday to Thursday morning are awesome for making snow with the temps and low dew point) I'll be happy. If there were other boats on the lake I would totally go out on my stand up jet ski, always wanted to merge snowboard and jet ski season. I cam really close one year, closed the hill on Monday then the next Friday I was out on the lake. But the water is really cold this time of year and I have to wear a diving wetsuit that's just too thick to let you move around very well. Winters have been so backloaded the last few years, it's really like winter has changed and it runs from Jan 1st to mid March. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said: Looks to be well above average, with average highs in the upper 40s. On the 26th it was 34 and flurries in the afternoon. Temps seem to swing more wildly here so far compared to where I came from. And nights are a little warmer than Klamath Falls too. They get weeks straight in the 20's for low. 2 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: On the 26th it was 34 and flurries in the afternoon. Temps seem to swing more wildly here so far compared to where I came from. And nights are a little warmer than Klamath Falls too. They get weeks straight in the 20's for low. You're in your new location. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 The "storm" for Tuesday is fading away. Not a surprise. At this point, it's hard to see us getting any snowfall before Christmas. I sure hope this is not a sign that we are in for a boring winter. Hopefully things change so we can get more winter storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Bye bye storm According to GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 It's only Dec 2nd so we're just getting started. But it doesn't look good for a while. As mentioned, winters are becoming more like January to April. Long gone are the white Thanksgivings that seemed to happen a lot when I was a kid. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Up to 61.0 IMBY, up from 54.5 an hour ago. One would think 70 should be an easy target with 3-3.5 hours of heating yet.... Valley NWS isn't so sure. Just sent out this update. UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021 We did lower the high temperature forecast a couple of degrees this morning. Have some concern about overall poor mixing and whether the true warmth can be realized. Will monitor how temps rise in the next few hours. Still a fabulous day, but just a couple degrees lower than previously forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Once again today our temp is going nowhere. The northern half of Iowa is stuck in the upper 40s to near 50º. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 2, 2021 Report Share Posted December 2, 2021 Canadian is more favorable for the early week system next week than the GFS. Pretty soon a storm thread could probably be fired up for the 12/5 ish storm that looks to hit the upper midwest and GL's. And if trends continue we may get our first accumulating snow further south on or around 12/8. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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