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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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That GFS is not budging....more of the same, above average temps. Now, the ICON and GEM have snow here in KC next week....

The GFS has been right over the last month on these warm-ups and sustained warm-ups...yes, it has flashed some cold, but, overall, most runs have been WARM.

I'm hoping its wrong

We'll see what model wins out, the colder/snowier ones or the warmer/rainier ones. 

Game on! 

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3 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Think I found the correct thread. Just moved to Kentucky (used to live in Oregon!) and I got to Ashland on
Nov 21st.

Can't wait for the t'storms next Spring and Summer! 

That's a real pretty area! Hope you're ready for summer humidty though lol

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Euro is further north for the weekend system.  My mother in law lives in a small town called Menahga, MN which is close to halfway between Fargo and Duluth, so I like to keep an eye on the weather there.  Looks like they could either just miss or get hit hard.  

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Most models at least whiten up my area.  This system has no gulf moisture to work with.  All it has is whatever it brings with it across the northern Rockies.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

It's only Dec 2nd so we're just getting started. But it doesn't look good for a while. As mentioned, winters are becoming more like January to April. Long gone are the white Thanksgivings that seemed to happen a lot when I was a kid.

That was a trend I started noticing back west as well. The last really snowy December happened in 2015, and Novembers were pretty dry in terms of both rain and snow towards the end.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well I have the latest Euro giving me 0.7" of precip all snow Sat-Sun, so I got that going for me, which is nice....  

I have seen similar circumstances where I end up with nothing, hoping for something interesting.  It's been since mid January 2020 for a real winter storm in northern minnesota.  Last months Vetran's day slopfest doesn't really count as a winter storm in my mind.   

qpf_acc.us_nc.png

 

Edited by Beltrami Island
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Every run gets warmer and less stormy, unless it's 10 days out!  Always a mega storm 10 days out and nothing comes of it.  Looks like a year of hoping for Lake effect.  Bout all we got right now.   decent pattern, but just looks too warm for now.  Hopefully a colder January brings the storminess back with cold air.  

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13 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Well I have the latest Euro giving me 0.7" of precip all snow Sat-Sun, so I got that going for me, which is nice....  

I have seen similar circumstances where I end up with nothing, hoping for something interesting.  It's been since mid January 2020 for a real winter storm in northern minnesota.  Last months Vetran's day slopfest doesn't really count as a winter storm in my mind.   

qpf_acc.us_nc.png

 

Euro is the last holdout for me. All the American models have the jack zone somewhere between me and Grand Forks, with me getting at least 6". Sorry, but I hope you fail lol

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 10 day total for Iowa. 

 

1639310400-1tSFkNVTti0.png

WAIT!  I thought winter got cancelled out there just yesterday. Pencil me confused..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Got to 70 today! 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Every run gets warmer and less stormy, unless it's 10 days out!  Always a mega storm 10 days out and nothing comes of it.  Looks like a year of hoping for Lake effect.  Bout all we got right now.   decent pattern, but just looks too warm for now.  Hopefully a colder January brings the storminess back with cold air.  

This weekend's storm hitting NMI is pretty std per climo for 1st week of December. Overall, up and down winter like 07-08 with every snow getting nuked in between would not surprise me one bit. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, Madtown said:

18z GFS coming in hot up this way 

Good Luck up there!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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On 11/30/2021 at 8:53 AM, mlgamer said:

I think the 06z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

dwm500_test_20211011.gif

Looks like our storm based on the cycle length you found is showing up on the Euro and GFS on the 11th and 12th.

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For the Northern peeps on here-- enjoy!! You guys struggled last year and it led to drought and major fires in area I visit a lot-- Boundary Waters Canoe area and Quetico Provincial Park

18Z Euro-

image.thumb.png.1cbd8b4a6d90c05d409707b3cfe15e0e.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ok…..I’m just sayin’ it’s 6:30 pm on Dec. 2nd and my geraniums look like July.  What tha??
😎👍

 

89C15746-BEC3-459C-A6EB-9F20D7937915.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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35 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

For the Northern peeps on here-- enjoy!! You guys struggled last year and it led to drought and major fires in area I visit a lot-- Boundary Waters Canoe area and Quetico Provincial Park

18Z Euro-

image.thumb.png.1cbd8b4a6d90c05d409707b3cfe15e0e.png

This is starting to look impressive. Hope it all makes it to the ground😉

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

For the Northern peeps on here-- enjoy!! You guys struggled last year and it led to drought and major fires in area I visit a lot-- Boundary Waters Canoe area and Quetico Provincial Park

18Z Euro-

image.thumb.png.1cbd8b4a6d90c05d409707b3cfe15e0e.png

Come onnn... One county southhhhh...

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Ripping pretty well outside currently, right at the 32°F mark. Whatever we get today will be a nice bonus. Hopefully it doesn't get as warm as forecasted (38) tomorrow as I'd like this to be a nice foundation in case the Saturday storm underachieves.

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15 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

This is like the euro vs world. Euro has been consistent  hitting the full northern 1/3 of mn and into Canada slightly. Every other model I look at has the border in the northern fringe possibly shut out completely.

You and I would both be happy with Euro if it were shifted about 30 miles South.

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FGF on this wintry mischief:

Quote
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

The headline for the extended period is the system on Saturday
evening into Sunday. A clipper system is expected to strengthen as
it and an associated surface low pass over Eastern North Dakota. The
potential for banding with this system is there, with
frontogenetical forcing preceding the synoptic forcing. It is not a
perfect scenario by any means for heavy snow, but the potential
exists for the northern valley wherever the forcing is the strongest
and banding sets up. Moisture does not appear to be an issue with
this system, as QPF probabilities for greater than 0.10 inches is
around 80% on an axis stretching from the Devils Lake Basin to south
of the Red Lakes. The trend in the guidance has been a southern pull
on the highest amounts, so we will continue to monitor this trend
and make changes as necessary. Confidence is lower on coverage of
possible bands, and where they will set up. Snowfall amounts are
very tricky with this system, like with any banding system, but we
are a bit more confident in the fact that there will be plowable
snow on Saturday evening in the northern half of the CWA. Travel
impacts are looking more and more likely as well, but dependent upon
numerous factors that are not as certain right now.

Our next issue with this system is the possibility of areas of
blowing snow resulting from snowpack and higher winds on Sunday.
Winds are expected to increase due to a tight pressure gradient
behind the surface low to around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35
MPH in the afternoon. This would impact travel as well, making the
travel impacts last longer than the falling snow. Temperatures on
Sunday would be in the 20s to low 30s, with wind chills in the
single digits in the afternoon when winds are strongest. Sunday into
Monday, winds should calm and lows will be in the single digits on
both sides of zero.

 

 

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... And on what I'm receiving right now:

Quote
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

Snow is expanding in coverage across eastern ND and there are
reports/webcams showing snow covered roads in the Devils Lake
Basin. This activity is spreading east into the RRV and is in line
with previous idea of widespread light/localized moderate rates
(due to some embedded banding). I adjusted coverage/timing a bit
to reflect widespread activity and activity further south, I also
delayed the ending of snow until later tonight as some CAMs are
showing it possibly lingering a bit longer as frontogenesis
lingers a bit longer.

 

Would not be surprised to get over an inch tonight. That would be nice as I expected nothing. Maybe it'll even knock the high tomorrow down a couple degrees.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Nice!  Are you going to have any wind to blow it around?

Tomorrow yes. This is a pretty wet, low-ratio snow though so it shouldn't be picked up and tossed around like what I'm used to here. 

The compact nature of this snow makes me pretty hopeful that at least some of it will survive the mid-upper 30s tomorrow.

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ICON drags an arctic front squall line thru SEMI Monday evening. Prolly the best I can hope for from 1st storm

image.png.76279df2ea1730c09a5bdcae06d289a6.png 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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