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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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114 hrs out on a GLOBAL. This is a pretty amazing image for some monster LES bands with a Superior/Michigan/Huron connection:

image.png.3cd7f77e0bc2cb31ff9ac83849d149b6.png

 

Edit: Just noticed that it also has a narrow band wandering through my area.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A lot of Peeps calling winter over on Dec 2nd. Some have a beef, others not so much. For the record, I'm quite pleased to get off to such a quick start. Not that either is a favorable comparison to this winter, but I've had way more snow than at this time in 2013, and it will be Dec 14th before that season passes me if I get nothing before then. I could go flake-less until mid-January before last winter would finally catch and (barely) pass me.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Happened sometime during Dec of '96. Middle of the UP was getting a 30" snowstorm (even away from Superior) while I sat under RN and drizzle/fog in Traverse. (that went on to be a top snowfall winter over 200" total) This would not be unprecedented for mid-December:

image.png.2b7d30f519d6724a8a8d344c9a3d1e09.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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00Z NAM has way more dry slot for Saturday night, I end up with a wonderful 2" as a result. Even the jack zone barely exceeds 7". I hate the fact that I believe that.

 

NST is even worse, basically following Euro to a T but with less moisture.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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9 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Happened sometime during Dec of '96. Middle of the UP was getting a 30" snowstorm (even away from Superior) while I sat under RN and drizzle/fog in Traverse. (that went on to be a top snowfall winter over 200" total) This would not be unprecedented for mid-December:

image.png.2b7d30f519d6724a8a8d344c9a3d1e09.png

Beast Mode

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10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

00Z NAM has way more dry slot for Saturday night, I end up with a wonderful 2" as a result. Even the jack zone barely exceeds 7". I hate the fact that I believe that.

 

NST is even worse, basically following Euro to a T but with less moisture.

Saw that NAM - szheesh! This thing wants to stay way north. NAM really doesn't show any S stream wave/secondary over The Mitt like the globals have. Not sure what to make of that.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As we open up Dec, the lower 48 is currently sitting at one of its lowest snow cover ratios in the past 2 decades sitting at a paltry 8.6% yesterday.  The obvious culprit is the pesky W/SW ridge that has brought forth record time warmth.

 

image.png

 

As we move forward, a true pattern change is ahead as a SW Flow develops and will change the above map...but to what degree?  The northern Sub will first benefit in this change and then the pattern should press farther south.  I'm seeing some signs of the return of the "Baffin Bay Ridge" that was all so common back in Oct.  The LRC cycle #2 shall commence.  I haven't read or listened to Gary's Winter Forecast yet but to me it does appear that this years pattern is close to 60 days (+/- 2 days).  I'm still not 100% but at this point that is where I'm at.  Would like to see where we are after next weeks wx bc that will be a big clue as to where the storms track into the west/southwest regions of the U.S.

With that being said, last nights 0z Euro showing this for the 1st strong northern stream wave dumping some significant snows up north.  I like it when nature fills up the missing ingredient to brew cold and seed cold down farther south.

@FAR_Weather riding the southern edge while @Beltrami Island looks golden and east towards @Madtown

 

2.png

3.png

 

0z EPS...

6.png

 

 

 

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Big changes the last 2 runs of the EPS over the Central CONUS as much cooler trends are showing up and an uptick in snow chances later next week.  As mentioned above, the return of the "Baffin Bay Ridge" is appearing in the Week 2 pattern which is shoving the jet stream farther south.  In addition, the Strat is playing ball as one can vividly see that by Day 8 a large warming pool just west of Greenland and N of Hudson Bay develops and right when there might be a 3rd system to track by the following weekend.

 

2.png

 

0z EPS snow mean suggesting a good LR signal for a swath of snow across the Plains/MW/GL's late next week...

3.png

 

0z Euro op run has flashed this potential system for a couple runs and the GFS is also on board....let's see what happens but it does look more wintry overall...finally...

5.png

 

 

5-day temp mean per the latest 0z EPS mean...where there is snow OTG temps remain BN and where there "could"  be snow OTG later next week temps are trending cooler each run.  

1.gif

 

Finally, I'll end this post with this comment on the teleconnections to look out for in the LR for those seeking winter wx (including myself).  If the latest trends are accurate and hold onto the idea that the EPO/WPO relax towards neutral, that would be welcomed news as the raging PAC jet wouldn't inundate the lower 48 with warmth and allow for the jet to track farther south.  There is consensus among the modeling as you can see below...

7.png

 

8.png

 

Is the MJO going to play ball also??  Yesterday's Euro Weeklies says yes...all in all, + trends of late...

 

image.png

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After looking at last evenings Euro weeklies, check out the stark differences in the 500mb 5-day mean for the opening days of this month.  The western C.A. trough is almost completely washed out and now a strong N.A Vortex is centered over Canada.

10 days ago vs recent run...

5.png

 

Current Run...

6.png

 

What could this mean going forward??  If the MJO forecast is correct (BIG question) then I believe its bias of holding a strong western Canadian trough in the LR is questionable.  This would be especially true if the EPO/WPO forecasts hold as both teleconnections are suggesting neutral to negative territory throughout the middle & end of DEC.

9.png

 

10.png

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

The MJO is very key to the future of this upcoming winter.

 

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Big changes the last 2 runs of the EPS over the Central CONUS as much cooler trends are showing up and an uptick in snow chances later next week.  As mentioned above, the return of the "Baffin Bay Ridge" is appearing in the Week 2 pattern which is shoving the jet stream farther south.  In addition, the Strat is playing ball as one can vividly see that by Day 8 a large warming pool just west of Greenland and N of Hudson Bay develops and right when there might be a 3rd system to track by the following weekend.

 

2.png

 

0z EPS snow mean suggesting a good LR signal for a swath of snow across the Plains/MW/GL's late next week...

3.png

 

0z Euro op run has flashed this potential system for a couple runs and the GFS is also on board....let's see what happens but it does look more wintry overall...finally...

5.png

 

 

5-day temp mean per the latest 0z EPS mean...where there is snow OTG temps remain BN and where there "could"  be snow OTG later next week temps are trending cooler each run.  

1.gif

 

Finally, I'll end this post with this comment on the teleconnections to look out for in the LR for those seeking winter wx (including myself).  If the latest trends are accurate and hold onto the idea that the EPO/WPO relax towards neutral, that would be welcomed news as the raging PAC jet wouldn't inundate the lower 48 with warmth and allow for the jet to track farther south.  There is consensus among the modeling as you can see below...

7.png

 

8.png

 

Is the MJO going to play ball also??  Yesterday's Euro Weeklies says yes...all in all, + trends of late...

 

image.png

Going back to Sept, the MJO seems to be the teleconnection with the single biggest influence on our weather.  Last night Gary predicted an Artic outbreak lasting 10-14 days but didn't give a date on when it would happen. (He recorded his forecast last week and clearly didn't know the cycle length at that time.)  Tom if it is indeed around a 60 day cycle, when would that most likely occur?  The post Grizz shared a few days ago could indicate the first of Jan, which would make some since with the largest storm in the pattern being due in right before New Years.  Thoughts guys?

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I'm telling ya, if there's one signature in this young winter season so far it's the wild swings. 56F yesterday but this morning I'm driving to work in steady snow falling. Nice med sized flakes coming down gently all morning like you envision your "first flakes" scenario in the Lwr Lakes. Perfect start to my TGIFriday. Happy Friday to all! Looking like exciting wx is finally looming for most if not all of the Sub. #goodtimes

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just now, jaster220 said:

I'm telling ya, if there's one signature in this young winter season so far it's the wild swings. 56F yesterday but this morning I'm driving to work in steady snow falling. Nice med sized flakes coming down gently all morning like you envision your "first flakes" scenario in the Lwr Lakes. Perfect start to my TGIFriday. Happy Friday to all! Looking like exciting wx is finally looming for most if not all of the Sub. #goodtimes

Definitely a battle zone setting up, which usually means precip/storms.  So that's a good thing.  Just need one little buckle in the jet stream to provide a share the wealth type storm.  1 time the long range GFS will be right.  Will it be the storm it's showing in 10 days?  Let's hope so!  I've got 87 days left where I care about snow.  So plenty of time to track and hope. 

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Just now, westMJim said:

Getting some light snow here at this time no accumulation. With that wet snow falling the temperature here is 34

Interesting, my whole yard was white and had to brush my car off leaving for work this morning on the NE side.  about 3/8".  Roads are just wet though.  

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Any thoughts on late December in Texas/Oklahoma region? 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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15 hours ago, Clinton said:

KC hit a high of 71 today breaking the previous record of 70. It was a beautiful day with sun and calm winds.

There was also wind in Ashland, so I wouldn't really call yesterday a hot day unless you're exerting yourself. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

Going back to Sept, the MJO seems to be the teleconnection with the single biggest influence on our weather.  Last night Gary predicted an Artic outbreak lasting 10-14 days but didn't give a date on when it would happen. (He recorded his forecast last week and clearly didn't know the cycle length at that time.)  Tom if it is indeed around a 60 day cycle, when would that most likely occur?  The post Grizz shared a few days ago could indicate the first of Jan, which would make some since with the largest storm in the pattern being due in right before New Years.  Thoughts guys?

Its pretty obvious this has been a challenging season to decipher the LRC when the guru is having a tough time!  I'll have to dig more deeply into my notes over the weekend when I have more time and see more model data on timing of when big storms and cold are possible.  All the LR modeling are showing a very active pattern starting to set up next week and will remain active through the holidays.  It'll be busy on here is all I gotta say.  Someone on here will cash in Bigly.

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If you want to find winter, just go to Hawaii.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=hfo&wwa=blizzard warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...

HIZ028-040215-
/O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/
Big Island Summits-
311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 AM HST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph.

* WHERE...Big Island Summits.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 AM HST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times,
  with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning
  that is also in effect.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause
  significant drifting of snow.
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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

Its pretty obvious this has been a challenging season to decipher the LRC when the guru is having a tough time!  I'll have to dig more deeply into my notes over the weekend when I have more time and see more model data on timing of when big storms and cold are possible.  All the LR modeling are showing a very active pattern starting to set up next week and will remain active through the holidays.  It'll be busy on here is all I gotta say.  Someone on here will cash in Bigly.

One of the hardest I can remember, I'm getting tired of wiping egg off my face.  It doesn't help that we have a lot of similar storms in the pattern and that the models have been terrible beyond 5 days.  The last time I can remember a cycle length of 60+ days was 2010/2011.

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1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Interesting, my whole yard was white and had to brush my car off leaving for work this morning on the NE side.  about 3/8".  Roads are just wet though.  

I also have heard that there was snow on the ground in the Rockford area as well. There was some slushy snow on the roofs and car tops but not on the ground.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

One of the hardest I can remember, I'm getting tired of wiping egg off my face.  It doesn't help that we have a lot of similar storms in the pattern and that the models have been terrible beyond 5 days.  The last time I can remember a cycle length of 60+ days was 2010/2011.

Well said, it certainly has been a fascinating season trying to dial in on this LRC length.  I didn't follow the LRC back in '10/'11 so that would be quite some time since we have had a long cycle length.  As you said, with so many similar storms/clippers and so forth, IMO, this bodes well for an active season.

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14 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The political hacks at the CPC don't see winter coming quite yet...

 

Why is every post of yours negative and snarky? Every CPC outlook past week 2 is always above normal, you know that.

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6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Well said, it certainly has been a fascinating season trying to dial in on this LRC length.  I didn't follow the LRC back in '10/'11 so that would be quite some time since we have had a long cycle length.  As you said, with so many similar storms/clippers and so forth, IMO, this bodes well for an active season.

That's the year I began to follow the LRC.  It was a La Nina that year, maybe not quite as warm as this has been and we had received only about 4 or 5 inches of snow going into the last week of Jan.  In early January Gary  forecasted a cold and very snowy Feb (in fact right down to the dates.)  The next thing you know the AO and NAO tanked and the snow commenced.  I got around 44 inches of snow in Feb (26in from one storm) and have followed ever since.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

That's the year I began to follow the LRC.  It was a La Nina that year, maybe not quite as warm as this has been and we had received only about 4 or 5 inches of snow going into the last week of Jan.  In early January Gary  forecasted a cold and very snowy Feb (in fact right down to the dates.)  The next thing you know the AO and NAO tanked and the snow commenced.  I got around 44 inches of snow in Feb (26in from one storm) and have followed ever since.

Holy snikes!  That must have been quite a finish to met Winter.  I remember that year vividly bc I left for AZ in March and we still had snow OTG up until the 2nd week.  In fact, I think we got hit by a nice 6-10" storm during the 1st week of March.  Cold storm with a lot of wind.  That was a back loaded season for sure.

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Any thoughts on late December in Texas/Oklahoma region? 

I think it's hard to say at the moment.  They're some indications that it could turn cold and stay cold for awhile after Christmas.  I think it's just a little to early to make any bold predictions though.

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