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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Models continue to struggle with the weak Tuesday system.  The GFS is back to dropping snow across Iowa, the Canadian drops an inch or two over western Iowa, and the UK drops the snow across southern Minnesota.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

Why is every post of yours negative and snarky? Every CPC outlook past week 2 is always above normal, you know that.

It sounds like you're mad you're not in the winter storm watch....

You've actually liked quite a few of my "negative and snarky" posts lately. Weird.... I actually thought I was being funny pointing out the blizzard warnings in Hawaii. 

And I don't get how when others here were the ones that called the CPC "political hacks", when I use that phrase it's offensive. 

Anything else moderator?

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17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You've actually liked quite a few of my "negative and snarky" posts lately. Weird.... I actually thought I was being funny pointing out the blizzard warnings in Hawaii. 

It was funny.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Looks like the "Gales of November" are running a bit late this year. GRR likes our odds at a windstorm. 12z GFS for Monday:

image.png.6d459d53196c6dec56f7251639911bf9.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

One of the hardest I can remember, I'm getting tired of wiping egg off my face.  It doesn't help that we have a lot of similar storms in the pattern and that the models have been terrible beyond 5 days.  The last time I can remember a cycle length of 60+ days was 2010/2011.

On today's 12z GFS and CMC I can still see signals for a 60 day cycle but they're still fairly weak. I do think the Oct part of the pattern will be weaker and less organized in cycle #2 because of the strong +AO and +NAO signals, and the models might be picking up on that. On a side note,  I think if we have an arctic outbreak this year in our area it will be in cycle #3...so maybe in February (remember last year? lol)

Getting egg on our face is what makes it fun. Heck, I still haven't ruled out a 65-68 day cycle. I always wondered if some year the LRC would get blown up because no true recycling pattern could be found. I wonder if Gary ever worries about that... 🤣

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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The latest Euro is similar to the UK Tuesday.  1-2" of snow falls across southern MN, with nothing in Iowa.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro still has the big storm next weekend.  Hopefully, it won't fade away as we get closer.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro still has the big storm next weekend.  Hopefully, it won't fade away as we get closer.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

These are the storms I miss for the Grand Rapids area.  Wish it would come true, but who knows?  I'd be good with winter after that one.   

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43 minutes ago, FarmerRick said:

And by tomorrow, it'll probably show nothing. Way too far out to get excited.

That's true but it's better than models continuing to show a torch. 12z suite makes me a bit more hopeful that we can snag our first measurable snow in the 7-10 day range. But yeah, it could definitely flip back to warm by tonight. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

On today's 12z GFS and CMC I can still see signals for a 60 day cycle but they're still fairly weak. I do think the Oct part of the pattern will be weaker and less organized in cycle #2 because of the strong +AO and +NAO signals, and the models might be picking up on that. On a side note,  I think if we have an arctic outbreak this year in our area it will be in cycle #3...so maybe in February (remember last year? lol)

Getting egg on our face is what makes it fun. Heck, I still haven't ruled out a 65-68 day cycle. I always wondered if some year the LRC would get blown up because no true recycling pattern could be found. I wonder if Gary ever worries about that... 🤣

 

I agree if the AO and NAO continue to stay positive it will water down cycle 2 (maybe literally).  These models will look so much different in 4 days and I bet cycle 2 will show itself.  If not Gary may have to be hospitalized lol.  The 12z Euro is eye candy, it looks organized and shows a little cycle 2 with it also.  

You may be spot on with your artic outbreak prediction for Feb, but I'm thinking a little earlier this year like the start of January.  I think after Christmas that big storm from later Oct will produce for many on here and that combined with a phase 7 or 8 MJO will unleash it.  Maybe we'll have 2 big shots of artic air and both be right!

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You may be spot on with your artic outbreak prediction for Feb, but I'm thinking a little earlier this year like the start of January.  I think after Christmas that big storm from later Oct will produce for many on here and that combined with a phase 7 or 8 MJO will unleash it.  Maybe we'll have 2 big shots of artic air and both be right!

Actually this is the same part of the pattern I was thinking and looking it over again I think you are right.  My only concern is if a strong +AO and +NAO are still in place and would a favorable MJO overcome this. I was thinking cycle #3 might end up more closely resembling cycle #1 and thus a better chance for an arctic outbreak. However, after redoing the math that might be in early March or later so maybe early January is the better chance. I may have a little egg on my face now...lol

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

I am slowing the spread of winter this year because I know of someone who is waiting for it, as indicated by their login name.

As for the West Coast drought it is now expanding into the middle of the country so that we're all in this together. Expect boring California-like weather to become the new normal there. 

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Nice weather continues here for the weekend before more normal December weather starts next week.  NWS watching next weekend for a posable storm.

Tab2FileL.png

Forecast Discussion looking more interesting:

Focus then shifts to next weekend. Deterministic models all have
some indication of a system across the middle of the country. But
there are large variations in the strength, timing, and the
position of the system. The GFS produces a strong cyclone and
tracks it well north of the forecast area. The ECMWF doesn`t
produce this initial cyclone, but rather brings a strong wave
across the Southern Plains later Saturday into Sunday. The track
of this system isn`t ideal to give us a chance for a snow storm,
but this is a week out and certainly needs to be watched as it`s
close and has structure of a strong system should it verify.
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8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nice weather continues here for the weekend before more normal December weather starts next week.  NWS watching next weekend for a posable storm.

Tab2FileL.png

Forecast Discussion looking more interesting:

Focus then shifts to next weekend. Deterministic models all have
some indication of a system across the middle of the country. But
there are large variations in the strength, timing, and the
position of the system. The GFS produces a strong cyclone and
tracks it well north of the forecast area. The ECMWF doesn`t
produce this initial cyclone, but rather brings a strong wave
across the Southern Plains later Saturday into Sunday. The track
of this system isn`t ideal to give us a chance for a snow storm,
but this is a week out and certainly needs to be watched as it`s
close and has structure of a strong system should it verify.

Clinton.....need to get rid of that dang positive AO Positive NAO, positive everything!!!!! I just don;t think we are going to see anything exciting in our area until we get those to go negative. The storm next weekend is there, but, the trends are for it to track NW of us and flood our area with once again, warmer than average temps. May shoot into the 60's again later this week. After that storm passes, more of the same, WARM! 

The GFS has been pretty good  in the last month showing these warm-ups, we have to believe it until it breaks..

Remember last December, +5 degrees on temps and not much winter at all that month. (we might be heading towards that again) But, Jan. 1 came and we had a pretty good winter after that, no big snows, but frequent smaller snows. OF course, the beautiful 2 week stretch of arctic air and 3-4 snows in Feb. So..........it's early, plenty of time for some change. 

I saw Gary's winter forecast, I just don't see where this pattern can produce average temps and the 10-14 day arctic air hit that he is forecasting. Where does he see that? Based off of what in the first cycle? I see how last year's Feb. outbreak happened, we had a 10-15 day record breaking cold outbreak in OCT. and that returned in cycle 3. (it did not happen in cycle 2) I don't see where we could set up shop on the cold air..sure, a couple hits here and there, but, 10-14 days. The W/SW ridge has been so dominate in the first cycle, I just don't think we can get rid of that. 

I think we see more rain storms than snow this winter, I think temps will be well above average and I just don't think we can get more than 12 inches of snow or so.  As you know, I hope I'm horribly wrong. 

I'll be the biggest cheerleader when I see the eyes of a true pattern change, but for now, you have to believe what we are seeing is going to continue for a little wild longer. I do like your idea of a colder late December and early Jan. period, If I'm reading the LRC right, I think we have a chance at that. 

I'll take a few more weeks of some warm and than BAM! Snow for the holidays. Let's set our goal for that. HA! 

BTW...I'm not giving up on next weekend's storm. I'll patiently wait for the data to change. Let's Go! 

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Might not have to wait long for a t'storm? 🍻

day2otlk_0700.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Had a low of 34, and upper 40's now.

21 and freezing fog at my last place. Does Kentucky get fog much? 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

I am slowing the spread of winter this year because I know of someone who is waiting for it, as indicated by their login name.

As for the West Coast drought it is now expanding into the middle of the country so that we're all in this together. Expect boring California-like weather to become the new normal there. 

Well, there's definitely no denying that I enjoy winter weather! I'm not very creative and just quickly thought of a name while signing up 4 years ago and never bothered to change it 😂

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The sun is out and while a little breezy it is now up to 42 here. So I will be taking a out side walk.  I know that there has been talk of the blizzard warming in Hawaii (above 10000 feet or so) while not at the summit here are the current conditions close by. Current conditions at

Bradshaw Army Air Field / Hawaii (PHSF)  Fog/Mist

52°F

Lat: 19.78°NLon: 155.55°WElev: 6191ft.

Now that said here is the weather forecast for the next several days

Today

Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 46. Strong and damaging winds, with an east southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tonight

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 36. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 50 to 60 mph decreasing to 31 to 41 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 48. Very windy, with a south wind 21 to 31 mph becoming northeast 7 to 12 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Sunday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 39. Windy, with a south southwest wind 21 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Monday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

So no snow fall at just over 6000 feet.

 

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26 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Euro and Canadian are still south.  But I don't trust a forecast for snow in KC until it's actually snowing.  Even then, I remain skeptical. Ha.

I have a feeling I moved to an area that's harder to forecast especially since this place averages less snow. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I've never lived on the West Coast, so I can't say for sure.  But the middle part of the country is pretty difficult for weather forecasters.  Here's a quote from a study/survey from 2014: 

Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows:

  1. Kansas City, Missouri;
  2. Oklahoma City;
  3. Minneapolis;
  4. Cincinnati;
  5. Indianapolis;
  6. St. Louis;
  7. Birmingham, Alabama;
  8. Boston;
  9. Milwaukee;
  10. Dallas.

Figured OKC would be up there on that list. 

Well if you're talking Portland or Seattle snow, a lot of the bigger ones are surprises. As a kid I used to live west of the cascades, there were 3 year segments I didn't see anything, then when it did snow you never believed the weather man on tv. 

Klamath Falls was a bit different, over 4000 feet high and we had winter every year. 

  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I've never lived on the West Coast, so I can't say for sure.  But the middle part of the country is pretty difficult for weather forecasters.  Here's a quote from a study/survey from 2014: 

Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows:

  1. Kansas City, Missouri;
  2. Oklahoma City;
  3. Minneapolis;
  4. Cincinnati;
  5. Indianapolis;
  6. St. Louis;
  7. Birmingham, Alabama;
  8. Boston;
  9. Milwaukee;
  10. Dallas.

I have given much thought to this. I lived many years in Pennsylvania  and Maryland  where i followed models and local forecasters  closely. Places like phili, balt, dc, Harrisburg  including  3 or 4 nws offices.  Ive lived in Iowa for 14 yrs.  Theres zero doubt in my mind that models are not as accurate  here especially  in summer.  Predicting lift, LLJ etc  seems very difficult.   The nws offices also seem not up to par with those east.

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