GDR Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Storm train going on the gfs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Models continue to struggle with the weak Tuesday system. The GFS is back to dropping snow across Iowa, the Canadian drops an inch or two over western Iowa, and the UK drops the snow across southern Minnesota. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, GDR said: Storm train going on the gfs lol, isn't it always? only 10 days away! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 I'm in the jack. What could go wrong? A large weekend storm would be awesome. That next weekend storm has a nice 1-2 punch. Lower lakes get hit hard with the secondary. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: Why is every post of yours negative and snarky? Every CPC outlook past week 2 is always above normal, you know that. It sounds like you're mad you're not in the winter storm watch.... You've actually liked quite a few of my "negative and snarky" posts lately. Weird.... I actually thought I was being funny pointing out the blizzard warnings in Hawaii. And I don't get how when others here were the ones that called the CPC "political hacks", when I use that phrase it's offensive. Anything else moderator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, tStacsh said: To be fair, he wasn't the one who claimed they base their outlooks on politics. Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 CMC has a rainer for next weekend. Some snow in MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: You've actually liked quite a few of my "negative and snarky" posts lately. Weird.... I actually thought I was being funny pointing out the blizzard warnings in Hawaii. It was funny. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Looks like the "Gales of November" are running a bit late this year. GRR likes our odds at a windstorm. 12z GFS for Monday: 1 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 hours ago, Clinton said: One of the hardest I can remember, I'm getting tired of wiping egg off my face. It doesn't help that we have a lot of similar storms in the pattern and that the models have been terrible beyond 5 days. The last time I can remember a cycle length of 60+ days was 2010/2011. On today's 12z GFS and CMC I can still see signals for a 60 day cycle but they're still fairly weak. I do think the Oct part of the pattern will be weaker and less organized in cycle #2 because of the strong +AO and +NAO signals, and the models might be picking up on that. On a side note, I think if we have an arctic outbreak this year in our area it will be in cycle #3...so maybe in February (remember last year? lol) Getting egg on our face is what makes it fun. Heck, I still haven't ruled out a 65-68 day cycle. I always wondered if some year the LRC would get blown up because no true recycling pattern could be found. I wonder if Gary ever worries about that... 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, GDR said: And by tomorrow, it'll probably show nothing. Way too far out to get excited. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 The latest Euro is similar to the UK Tuesday. 1-2" of snow falls across southern MN, with nothing in Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 The Euro still has the big storm next weekend. Hopefully, it won't fade away as we get closer. 7 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro still has the big storm next weekend. Hopefully, it won't fade away as we get closer. These are the storms I miss for the Grand Rapids area. Wish it would come true, but who knows? I'd be good with winter after that one. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 43 minutes ago, FarmerRick said: And by tomorrow, it'll probably show nothing. Way too far out to get excited. That's true but it's better than models continuing to show a torch. 12z suite makes me a bit more hopeful that we can snag our first measurable snow in the 7-10 day range. But yeah, it could definitely flip back to warm by tonight. 1 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, mlgamer said: On today's 12z GFS and CMC I can still see signals for a 60 day cycle but they're still fairly weak. I do think the Oct part of the pattern will be weaker and less organized in cycle #2 because of the strong +AO and +NAO signals, and the models might be picking up on that. On a side note, I think if we have an arctic outbreak this year in our area it will be in cycle #3...so maybe in February (remember last year? lol) Getting egg on our face is what makes it fun. Heck, I still haven't ruled out a 65-68 day cycle. I always wondered if some year the LRC would get blown up because no true recycling pattern could be found. I wonder if Gary ever worries about that... I agree if the AO and NAO continue to stay positive it will water down cycle 2 (maybe literally). These models will look so much different in 4 days and I bet cycle 2 will show itself. If not Gary may have to be hospitalized lol. The 12z Euro is eye candy, it looks organized and shows a little cycle 2 with it also. You may be spot on with your artic outbreak prediction for Feb, but I'm thinking a little earlier this year like the start of January. I think after Christmas that big storm from later Oct will produce for many on here and that combined with a phase 7 or 8 MJO will unleash it. Maybe we'll have 2 big shots of artic air and both be right! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: You may be spot on with your artic outbreak prediction for Feb, but I'm thinking a little earlier this year like the start of January. I think after Christmas that big storm from later Oct will produce for many on here and that combined with a phase 7 or 8 MJO will unleash it. Maybe we'll have 2 big shots of artic air and both be right! Actually this is the same part of the pattern I was thinking and looking it over again I think you are right. My only concern is if a strong +AO and +NAO are still in place and would a favorable MJO overcome this. I was thinking cycle #3 might end up more closely resembling cycle #1 and thus a better chance for an arctic outbreak. However, after redoing the math that might be in early March or later so maybe early January is the better chance. I may have a little egg on my face now...lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 3, 2021 Report Share Posted December 3, 2021 Lol, GFS is showing 22" in Sioux Falls for next weekend's storm. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Coldest November on record for 2 sites in AK- several others were top 5. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 https://www.facebook.com/100064847102183/posts/270202781817957/?sfnsn=mo 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: https://www.facebook.com/100064847102183/posts/270202781817957/?sfnsn=mo Correction: When it’s been in the 60s and 70s Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said: https://www.facebook.com/100064847102183/posts/270202781817957/?sfnsn=mo I am slowing the spread of winter this year because I know of someone who is waiting for it, as indicated by their login name. As for the West Coast drought it is now expanding into the middle of the country so that we're all in this together. Expect boring California-like weather to become the new normal there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 No longer longer wintery in SMI in the near future. Bring back the clipper pattern! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Nice weather continues here for the weekend before more normal December weather starts next week. NWS watching next weekend for a posable storm. Forecast Discussion looking more interesting: Focus then shifts to next weekend. Deterministic models all have some indication of a system across the middle of the country. But there are large variations in the strength, timing, and the position of the system. The GFS produces a strong cyclone and tracks it well north of the forecast area. The ECMWF doesn`t produce this initial cyclone, but rather brings a strong wave across the Southern Plains later Saturday into Sunday. The track of this system isn`t ideal to give us a chance for a snow storm, but this is a week out and certainly needs to be watched as it`s close and has structure of a strong system should it verify. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Clinton said: Nice weather continues here for the weekend before more normal December weather starts next week. NWS watching next weekend for a posable storm. Forecast Discussion looking more interesting: Focus then shifts to next weekend. Deterministic models all have some indication of a system across the middle of the country. But there are large variations in the strength, timing, and the position of the system. The GFS produces a strong cyclone and tracks it well north of the forecast area. The ECMWF doesn`t produce this initial cyclone, but rather brings a strong wave across the Southern Plains later Saturday into Sunday. The track of this system isn`t ideal to give us a chance for a snow storm, but this is a week out and certainly needs to be watched as it`s close and has structure of a strong system should it verify. Clinton.....need to get rid of that dang positive AO Positive NAO, positive everything!!!!! I just don;t think we are going to see anything exciting in our area until we get those to go negative. The storm next weekend is there, but, the trends are for it to track NW of us and flood our area with once again, warmer than average temps. May shoot into the 60's again later this week. After that storm passes, more of the same, WARM! The GFS has been pretty good in the last month showing these warm-ups, we have to believe it until it breaks.. Remember last December, +5 degrees on temps and not much winter at all that month. (we might be heading towards that again) But, Jan. 1 came and we had a pretty good winter after that, no big snows, but frequent smaller snows. OF course, the beautiful 2 week stretch of arctic air and 3-4 snows in Feb. So..........it's early, plenty of time for some change. I saw Gary's winter forecast, I just don't see where this pattern can produce average temps and the 10-14 day arctic air hit that he is forecasting. Where does he see that? Based off of what in the first cycle? I see how last year's Feb. outbreak happened, we had a 10-15 day record breaking cold outbreak in OCT. and that returned in cycle 3. (it did not happen in cycle 2) I don't see where we could set up shop on the cold air..sure, a couple hits here and there, but, 10-14 days. The W/SW ridge has been so dominate in the first cycle, I just don't think we can get rid of that. I think we see more rain storms than snow this winter, I think temps will be well above average and I just don't think we can get more than 12 inches of snow or so. As you know, I hope I'm horribly wrong. I'll be the biggest cheerleader when I see the eyes of a true pattern change, but for now, you have to believe what we are seeing is going to continue for a little wild longer. I do like your idea of a colder late December and early Jan. period, If I'm reading the LRC right, I think we have a chance at that. I'll take a few more weeks of some warm and than BAM! Snow for the holidays. Let's set our goal for that. HA! BTW...I'm not giving up on next weekend's storm. I'll patiently wait for the data to change. Let's Go! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Might not have to wait long for a t'storm? 4 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Had a low of 34, and upper 40's now. 21 and freezing fog at my last place. Does Kentucky get fog much? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 13 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: I am slowing the spread of winter this year because I know of someone who is waiting for it, as indicated by their login name. As for the West Coast drought it is now expanding into the middle of the country so that we're all in this together. Expect boring California-like weather to become the new normal there. Well, there's definitely no denying that I enjoy winter weather! I'm not very creative and just quickly thought of a name while signing up 4 years ago and never bothered to change it 2 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 17 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: Lol, GFS is showing 22" in Sioux Falls for next weekend's storm. And now hardly anything on gfs lol! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 12Z gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 The sun is out and while a little breezy it is now up to 42 here. So I will be taking a out side walk. I know that there has been talk of the blizzard warming in Hawaii (above 10000 feet or so) while not at the summit here are the current conditions close by. Current conditions at Bradshaw Army Air Field / Hawaii (PHSF) Fog/Mist 52°F Lat: 19.78°NLon: 155.55°WElev: 6191ft. Now that said here is the weather forecast for the next several days Today Occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 46. Strong and damaging winds, with an east southeast wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest 45 to 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 80 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tonight Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 36. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 50 to 60 mph decreasing to 31 to 41 mph. Winds could gust as high as 90 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 48. Very windy, with a south wind 21 to 31 mph becoming northeast 7 to 12 mph. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Sunday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 39. Windy, with a south southwest wind 21 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 48. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. So no snow fall at just over 6000 feet. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 26 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: Euro and Canadian are still south. But I don't trust a forecast for snow in KC until it's actually snowing. Even then, I remain skeptical. Ha. I have a feeling I moved to an area that's harder to forecast especially since this place averages less snow. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said: I've never lived on the West Coast, so I can't say for sure. But the middle part of the country is pretty difficult for weather forecasters. Here's a quote from a study/survey from 2014: Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows: Kansas City, Missouri; Oklahoma City; Minneapolis; Cincinnati; Indianapolis; St. Louis; Birmingham, Alabama; Boston; Milwaukee; Dallas. Figured OKC would be up there on that list. Well if you're talking Portland or Seattle snow, a lot of the bigger ones are surprises. As a kid I used to live west of the cascades, there were 3 year segments I didn't see anything, then when it did snow you never believed the weather man on tv. Klamath Falls was a bit different, over 4000 feet high and we had winter every year. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Looks like I’ll be golfing in mid-December. Hope to have winter come by Xmas. Until then, enjoy the mild weather. Peace. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 hours ago, someweatherdude said: I've never lived on the West Coast, so I can't say for sure. But the middle part of the country is pretty difficult for weather forecasters. Here's a quote from a study/survey from 2014: Among cities that do fall within the most populous metro areas, those with the most unpredictable weather are as follows: Kansas City, Missouri; Oklahoma City; Minneapolis; Cincinnati; Indianapolis; St. Louis; Birmingham, Alabama; Boston; Milwaukee; Dallas. I have given much thought to this. I lived many years in Pennsylvania and Maryland where i followed models and local forecasters closely. Places like phili, balt, dc, Harrisburg including 3 or 4 nws offices. Ive lived in Iowa for 14 yrs. Theres zero doubt in my mind that models are not as accurate here especially in summer. Predicting lift, LLJ etc seems very difficult. The nws offices also seem not up to par with those east. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 4, 2021 Report Share Posted December 4, 2021 Omaha afternoon discussion 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.