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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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We could probably fire up a thread by tomorrow for the weekend storm if it continues to show promise.  All global models show it and most fairly strong.  There are actually a few shots at snow in the next 7 days, so it has the potential to be active for a good portion of the forum.  

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Looks like I’ll be golfing in mid-December.  Hope to have winter come by Xmas.  Until then, enjoy the mild weather.  Peace.  

I stuck my hand into the lake yesterday thinking of taking out my jet ski lol. But no one else was out there, if I hurt myself or break down I am really screwed.

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Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Are you in your new house? 

Yes I've been at the house since late November.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 hours ago, Stacsh said:

No longer longer wintery in SMI in the near future.   Bring back the clipper pattern!   

GRR

Quote

image.png.d183eedb539a1aa432821dac43b25419.png

NOTE: When we issue this headline, it will be from 1 block NORTH of Stacsh's house, on north to US10.

Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

I’m ok with 1 day of wind and blowing snow that won’t amount to much , but come on.  Blow torch coming.  

That was talking about the front-end snow/mix. You are north of 96, correct?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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45 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That was talking about the front-end snow/mix. You are north of 96, correct?

By about a mile.  I was reading the rest of the discussion lol.  Might get some flakes and freezing drizzle but should turn to plain rain as usual.  I like storms though so hoping for a decent snow squall and wind on the back side.   But yes.  96 seems to separate storms like the system is conscious and knows the dividing line.  

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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark.

I’m down to 28.4 atm

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and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month....   For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month....   For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many.

Ya, it's pretty much trending that way...looks like I'll be doing some more outdoor grilling in DEC...I almost don't care to see any snow from the possible system next weekend bc it'll be gone in a day or two. 

2 things: 1) Terrible Teleconnections  2) Polar Vortex not playing ball

 

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First off congrats to Michigan and their big win over Iowa last night! The overnight low here was 28 and with cloudy skies it is now 31. Yesterday the official high at GRR was 41 with a lot of sunshine before the clouds moved in. The first 4 days of December have been very mild and the departure for the month is now at +3.8 and so far just 0.6" of snow fall.

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28 for a low in Ashland. First day this month the sun didn't come out at least in the morning anyhow.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

540 line all the way to Hudson Bay in mid December.

63A33C12-F491-416E-B9FD-B561149727E3.jpeg

AC2CBF84-2D18-4B25-A079-2483922A318A.jpeg

If its gonna be that warm, I hope it produces storms. Otherwise, lol.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Looks like western Ky has a shot of severe weather today.  What part of Kentucky are you in?

Ashland is right along the Ohio river, so far eastern. There are commuters from WV/OH driving through Ashland daily.

I think Charleston NWS covers our weather and alerts.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I think I'm just a 15 minute drive from both Ohio and West Virginia from here. The bridges are pretty close to my house.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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11 hours ago, Stacsh said:

By about a mile.  I was reading the rest of the discussion lol.  Might get some flakes and freezing drizzle but should turn to plain rain as usual.  I like storms though so hoping for a decent snow squall and wind on the back side.   But yes.  96 seems to separate storms like the system is conscious and knows the dividing line.  

If 96 went ENE from MKG instead of ESE, it would be the perfect dividing line of the 2 wx zones for the LP of Michigan. So yeah, it's often the case. Hopefully, the backside LES over-performs for SWMI. I know APX is expecting it to for NWMI, but they get the best ingredients further north. Looking like Nov and Dec swapped roles again this season for here. Oh well won't have to deal with slippery roads and all that comes with a snowy Dec during the busiest time of year. One small silver lining. Enjoy the squalls tomorrow.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Thunderstorms do excite me if you haven't noticed. Back in central-eastern Oregon it was maybe twice a year we'd see a severe t'storm watch issued by the SPC. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

and now does the EURO and CMC and even ICON... Dec is setting up to be an epic fail for those who deemed it cold and snowy for the majority reading. I dont see any cold air until maybe the last 11 days of the month....   For sure the 1st half is going to be near 10F above normal for many.

If that system wasn't going to be followed by another shot of arctic cold, it was DOA so not really surprised to see the models do a turn-about on it's development. Just so sad how nothing works in December any more.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'm legit starting to get concerned they're going to close down the ski resorts for part of december. It's going to sleet/rain/snow today, I was out Friday and the base was already so low dirt was popping up in spots. We are getting this little three day stretch of really good snow making weather and it looks like everyone is going to have to hang on until after the 20th if these models verify.

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Uneventful December doesn't surprise me, but nothing in Oct or Nov either does. Going to have to start watching for latest measurable snows. December 31, 2006 for both Omaha and Lincoln. 7.5" fell that day in Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The latest GFS has a week of 50s to near 60º here next week.  If it's not going to snow (no snow through Xmas on the GFS), then I'll gladly take mild air.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sunrise from Dec 1st I forgot to share. 

20211201_071920.jpg

20211201_072240.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, GDR said:

So I’ve been told that if I thought November and December was warm then wait til Jan. Record heat is on the table. 

Warmth in November is more understandable but crazy in January. Nov can be a wild card month especially where I lived before.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I see the fun already started in western KY. 

KPAH_loop-20211205.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Share on other sites

17 hours ago, jaster220 said:

GRR

Things are slower, less amped-up on the NAM. This will limit the serious WAA shown on earlier model runs that really bombed this sucker over NMI. Looks like the N half of The Mitt may escape the sloppy rain/mix altogether and just go into the dryslot. Meanwhile, frozen is more likely further south than originally thought. Was surprised how quickly it dropped into the 30's here even before dark.

1F634B9D-B250-40CA-8745-E0A9D74C4BCF.thumb.png.b551846d772c4b17138ec4430919d559.png
 

looks like just north of my house they are getting some significant frozen precipitation judging by road conditions.  

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